Economic globalization is one of the important characteristics of the contemporary world economy and an important trend of world economic development. In the supply chain system of Chinese construction machinery mainframe manufacturers, Cummins, Rexroth, Kawasaki and others have played an important role and become an important part of China's construction machinery supply chain. Europe, America, East Asia and other regions are more affected by the epidemic. This is also the most concentrated and developed region in the global industrial chain. In order to prevent and control the epidemic, many factories have adjusted their production plans, and some even directly participated in the production and research and development of epidemic prevention materials. .
The policy of expanding domestic demand is overweight, and infrastructure investment may exceed expectations. As of April 20, 2020, the number of people diagnosed with New Coronary Pneumonia exceeded 2.4 million, which seriously affected global consumption and international trade, especially for the consumption and import and export of the Chinese economy. As one of the troikas driving the economy, investment is expected to become an important starting point for hedging China and even the global economic decline. Among them, infrastructure investment closely related to China's construction machinery industry may exceed expectations.
In April 2020, the China Construction Machinery Market Index, or CMI, was 139.03, an increase of 0.26% year-on-year and 34.56% month-on-month (according to the CMI judgment standard, over 130, the market entered an expansion period, the short-term is more optimistic, the main products and most regional markets are in Stable annual peak season).
In 2019, China's total investment in fixed assets reached 55.15 trillion yuan, of which manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment and real estate investment accounted for 40%, 33% and 24%, respectively. It can be seen that infrastructure is an important component of fixed asset investment. One of the world; second, the certainty of infrastructure investment is also the highest. The final demand for investment in manufacturing is domestic demand and exports, which are greatly affected by the willingness of enterprises to invest; under the current background of "no housing speculation", there is uncertainty in real estate investment; and infrastructure investment is mainly led by the central government and governments at all levels and implemented It is easier and more effective, and can be invested in advance.
During the most serious domestic outbreaks in January-February, the outbreaks in Europe and the United States have not yet erupted, and production is in a relatively stable state. During the outbreak of outbreaks in Europe and the United States, China ’s outbreaks have been effectively controlled. It is in a stable and orderly state, and many mainframe manufacturers and accessory suppliers have prepared materials in advance, so that the current production can be carried out in an orderly manner.
Special debt has obvious effect on ensuring the capital investment funds are in place. At the national level, the country has repeatedly mentioned increasing the size of local government special debts in the opening year of 2020. On February 24, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The Ministry of Finance mentioned the need to expand the scale of real estate special debts; March 17. At the regular press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission, Liu Shihu, Deputy Director of the Investment Division of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the next step of the National Development and Reform Commission will be to expand the scale of local special bonds.
From a local perspective, since March, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia, Guizhou and other development and reform commissions have put local government special debt projects on the important agenda at relevant "stabilizing investment and promoting growth" meetings.
For example, the Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission proposed to “strive to seize the new national special debts and investment opportunities in the central budget, strengthen project reserves and declarations, and accelerate project implementation”, and it seems that the number of new construction projects in Hunan is close to 36% last year , More than the same period last year.
From the current project declaration and enthusiasm for the construction of various provinces, we have reason to believe that May to June will be the time period when the first batch of national special debt funds are concentrated. For key projects in various countries and provinces and cities, especially in the field of infrastructure investment , The availability of funds will be significantly improved, and then stabilize and stimulate demand and confidence in the downstream construction machinery market.
China's infrastructure investment still has considerable room for growth. Infrastructure needs a lot of space in the process of urbanization in China. Infrastructure is the top priority in China's urbanization process, and there is still much room for demand in China's central and western regions and new rural areas. This also provides opportunities for the growth of infrastructure investment.
As of March 1, 13 provinces and municipalities, including Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, Shanghai, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, and Ningxia, released the list of key project investment plans for 2020. This investment list includes a total of 10326 projects, of which 8 provinces announced the total planned investment amount, a total of 33.83 trillion yuan; another 8 provinces announced the annual investment amount, a total of about 2.79 trillion yuan.
In addition, the areas where the project investment plan has not been announced, are accelerating the planning and storage of a batch of major engineering projects. For example, Anhui requires all localities to promptly declare the 2020 provincial key project investment plan, and Guizhou requires localities to submit the first batch of reserve projects by February 14.
The continued investment in infrastructure construction will support the steady demand for construction machinery. In the current epidemic in 2020, the construction machinery industry rebounded in March after a two-month trough. Among them, the sales volume of excavators reached 49,408 units, a record high in monthly sales, showing strong market demand. March is the peak season for excavator sales, and the monthly proportion is 14% -20%, with an average of 19%.
According to Mr. Zhang Jie, a marketing consultant at Beijing Zhidian: if calculated on the basis of the average ratio, sales in 2020 will be as high as 256,556 units, an increase of about 9% compared with 2019. In other words, under the influence of the epidemic, the excavator industry not only did not lose a month, but also grabbed an additional month.
Haoheng's data has strengthened market confidence, coupled with the continuous increase in infrastructure investment policies and the continuous availability of funds, we expect the construction machinery industry to have more than expected market performance this year.
Cummins manufactures in China mainly to meet the needs of local users. Similar to other industries, some special materials for product manufacturing depend to some extent on overseas imports, such as electronic control components. In view of the development of overseas epidemic situation, the supply of this part of materials has indeed been affected to a certain extent. But compared with other industries, the impact of the epidemic on Cummins supply chain is very limited.
The production of Kawasaki Hydraulics in two domestic factories has been fully resumed. According to the current production capacity, it can fully meet the needs of Chinese mainframe manufacturers, and there has been no shortage of production capacity due to the impact of the epidemic. He further explained that Kawasaki has started local production since 1995, and the localization rate has reached a relatively high level. This year's supply level of the company is even better than that of the same period in previous years. The global supply chain is also in normal production and operation. At the same time, the company is prepared to prepare for the worsening of the epidemic.
With the resumption of production of the Pumanpu transmission system in China in late March, the Pumanpu Taicang and Changzhou factories are currently in full swing production. Due to the stocking plan of more than 6 months and the delay of production from February to March, the current material inventory is abundant and there will be no shortage of goods. But if you want to keep the subsequent production smooth, you need to add substances as soon as possible.
Eddie Precision Machinery is an important supplier of Sany, Xugong and Liugong. Chen Hailong, director of its Guangzhou office, said that the company's production is currently in a very tight level, and the production orders have been arranged in June.
From the production point of view, the global epidemic situation became more serious in early April, and some overseas factories stopped production. However, some parts of the construction machinery industry in China, such as generators and hydraulic parts, are imported. There is a shortage of imported parts for construction machinery, which in turn affects the production of construction machinery in China. From the sales point of view, some countries have closed construction sites and canceled related activities, resulting in a decline in the demand for construction machinery, which will affect China's construction machinery exports to a certain extent.
What is the size of the post-construction machinery market? As of 2018, the number of major construction machinery products in China has reached nearly 8 million units, and the aftermarket construction machinery industry has developed strongly. Experts in the construction machinery industry have made statistics, and the domestic construction machinery leasing transaction is about more than 2 trillion yuan, the supply of spare parts is more than 300 billion yuan, and the second mobile phone transaction is more than 400 billion yuan. The overall transaction in the aftermarket is nearly 3 trillion yuan.
