The scale of China's foreign trade import and export reached a record high, exceeding US $6 trillion; China's one belt, one road and 23.6% countries grew by 2.2 percentage points, and the growth rate was higher than the overall growth rate. China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports increased by 15%, and market procurement exports increased by 32.1%. New models and new business forms injected new vitality into the development of foreign trade... In 2021, China commemorated the 20th anniversary of China's accession to the WTO with outstanding achievements, injecting new impetus into the recovery of global trade. So what opportunities and challenges will China's foreign trade face in 2022? Our reporter applied the Delphi method to investigate 50 experts and scholars in the field of foreign trade, government officials, staff of trade promotion institutions, heads of foreign trade enterprises, financial media reporters and other professionals. The survey results show that the respondents have full confidence in the development of foreign trade in 2022 and summarized ten obvious trends.
Global trade recovers slowly, and the Asia Pacific region will become the most active region in international trade
"Recovery" has become one of the key words of most respondents' Outlook on the global trade situation, but they need to choose between strong recovery, slow recovery and K-shaped recovery. According to the survey, 72% of respondents believe that the development rate of Global trade will show a slow recovery trend in 2022. In addition, 84% of respondents believe that with the entry into force of RCEP, the global trade center will continue to move eastward in 2022, and the Asia Pacific region will become the most active region in international trade.
Liang Guoyong, a senior economic affairs official of the United Nations Conference on Trade and development, said that according to the estimation of the United Nations Conference on Trade and development, the total volume of Global trade in goods and services in 2021 is expected to increase by 23% over the previous year to $28 trillion. He analyzed that after the strong recovery in 2021, Global trade may show a relatively weak recovery trend.
On the one hand, the epidemic is still raging all over the world, which still has a strong suppressive effect on service trade; On the other hand, in the face of the severe threat of high inflation, major economies are bound to withdraw from quantitative easing and start the cycle of raising interest rates. The sharp turn of monetary policy will inevitably have a negative impact on the demand for trade in goods and increase global economic risks. The Asia Pacific economy has shown strong resilience under the impact of the epidemic, and intraregional trade relations have been strengthened. Due to the effective response to the epidemic, the Asia Pacific region has stable production, strong exports and rapid economic recovery, which provides support for the regional and world economic recovery from the supply side.
China's foreign trade growth in 2022 is full of confidence
48% of the respondents believe that compared with 2021, China's foreign trade will still grow in 2022, but the growth rate may slow down. 28% of the respondents believe that China's foreign trade will continue the strong growth trend of last year. So where does the foundation of China's foreign trade growth come from? One belt, one road, and 90% countries, will see a sustained growth in the foreign trade of the countries along the belt and road. This is an important driving force for China's foreign trade growth. Respondents believed that the rapid development of new business forms and new models, the gradual implementation of stable foreign trade policies, the improvement of the utilization rate of free trade agreements and the continuous optimization of product structure will be important factors driving the growth of foreign trade exports. Promoting common prosperity, reducing tariffs, releasing domestic demand and accelerating the construction of free trade zones will be conducive to further expanding imports.
China's one belt, one road Research Institute, Liang Haiming, believes that China's foreign trade will continue to be the driving force for China's strong economic growth. In particular, the formal entry into force of RCEP will help China change its role from the low end of the global trade value chain to the high end of the regional trade value chain, and is also expected to strengthen Asia Pacific Economic and trade cooperation. China China will continue one belt, one road, and the other is the world's leading position in the economic development and epidemic prevention and control this year. China will actively promote trade agreements with the countries along the belt and road through the development of new trade formats such as cross-border electricity suppliers, market purchases and overseas warehouses, and with the help of the comprehensive foreign trade frontier protection platform such as comprehensive tax protection zones, free trade zones and Hainan free trade port. It will support and promote China's foreign trade this year.
In 2022, China's policy of supporting foreign trade enterprises will be continuously strengthened
On December 30 last year, at the regular policy briefing held by the state information office, Li Xingqian, director of the Department of foreign trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said that we should accelerate the promotion of trade adjustment assistance. The recently released opinions of the general office of the State Council on doing a good job in cross cycle regulation and further stabilizing foreign trade requires all localities to establish and improve the trade adjustment assistance system in combination with local conditions. Therefore, 92% of the respondents believe that China's policy of supporting foreign trade enterprises will be strengthened in 2022.
Jie Hao, an associate researcher at the Institute of international commerce and trade of Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences, said that the trade adjustment assistance system originated in the United States. It initially carried out financial and technical support for enterprises impacted by imports. In recent years, it has gradually included enterprises and industries with blocked exports into the aid object. He believes that under the impact of the epidemic, foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises, have encountered greater difficulties. In addition to the support of the national unified financial and monetary policies, they should make use of the international practice of trade adjustment assistance to provide necessary support in technology upgrading, talent training, market development and financing, and adapt to the changes of the external environment in time through adjustment, It is conducive to protecting the main body of the market, protecting and stimulating the vitality of the main body of the market.
China's foreign trade enterprises will gradually increase the utilization rate of free trade agreements
The entry into force of RCEP has become one of the most concerned hot spots in the field of foreign trade in 2022, which is conducive to improving the cognition level of China's foreign trade enterprises on the free trade agreement, so as to improve the utilization rate of enterprises' free trade agreement. In this survey, 86% of the respondents believe that the utilization rate of free trade agreements of China's foreign trade enterprises will be gradually improved. In addition, 10% of the respondents believe that the utilization rate of free trade agreements of China's foreign trade enterprises will be rapidly improved. It can be seen that people from all walks of life have high hopes for the effects brought by RCEP after its entry into force.
Relevant research shows that the following factors will affect the utilization rate of the free trade agreement: first, the level of tariff preference and the degree of market opening provided by the free trade agreement; Second, the rules of origin in the free trade agreement; Third, relevant promotion and services of government departments. RCEP not only effectively solves the "Italian bowl effect" of intra regional free trade agreements, but also adopts cumulative rules for rules of origin, and its openness ranks first among many free trade agreements.
In addition, empirical research shows that the more a country signs free trade agreements, the higher the utilization rate of its free trade agreements. Therefore, it is of great significance to guide enterprises to make full use of the preferential terms of RCEP and take this opportunity to improve the utilization of other free trade agreements by Chinese enterprises, so as to promote the high-quality development of China's foreign trade. For enterprises, whether to use the free trade agreement is mainly based on the calculation of costs and benefits, that is, the comparison between the costs invested in applying for preferential tariffs under the free trade agreement and the possible benefits.
Yao Weiqun, member of the expert committee of CCPIT and executive director of the Strategic Research Institute of Shanghai International Trade Center of Shanghai University of foreign trade and economics, believes that the application of rules of origin, technical barriers to trade, animal and plant quarantine rules and intellectual property protection rules of RCEP and other free trade agreements by enterprises is a difficult problem to improve the utilization rate of free trade agreements, He suggested that competent commercial departments at all levels and CCPIT should establish an FTA business consulting network for enterprises to help enterprises solve these problems.
China's foreign trade is facing difficulties in finding a box and other problems, which may be alleviated this year
In the face of the problem of "difficult to find one container" of foreign trade enterprises, local business departments and trade promotion institutions help enterprises connect with the resources of shipping companies or freight forwarding companies, realize direct mining of transportation capacity and order containers in advance. 74% of respondents believe that the problem of one box of hard to find will be alleviated in 2022.
Che tanlai, deputy director and researcher of the international train Advisory Service Center of China Transportation Association, believes that with the increase of epidemic prevention and control experience in various countries, the adaptability and resilience of the global supply chain to the epidemic will continue to increase, the disorder and chain breakage of transportation links will be reduced, and the timeliness of land and sea transportation will be improved, The price of land transportation and sea transportation will fall by a small margin.
China Europe Express and other land transportation modes are becoming increasingly important to the development of foreign trade
During the epidemic period, the operation of China Europe train played an important role in stabilizing the global supply chain and supporting countries along the line to fight the epidemic. In this context, 80% of the respondents believe that land transportation modes such as China Europe trains will play an increasingly important role in the development of China's foreign trade.
China's one belt, one road, and other industries along the supply chain of the industrial chain will gradually increase, and the market demand will increase, especially the volume of goods to China in Europe will increase with the European freight forwarders and shippers' recognition of China EU class gradually. In the view of car detective, the biggest challenges faced by China Europe trains in 2022 are: first, how to improve the service quality and how to restore the transportation time from China to Western Europe to about 15 days before the epidemic; The second is how to reduce transportation costs and deal with the new competition after maritime price reduction.
In 2022, the price rise of raw materials and other problems faced by China's foreign trade may be alleviated
In the past 2021, foreign trade enterprises have to pay a high price to expect to obtain a transportation position, and bear the continuous pressure brought by the rising price of raw materials. When will such days come to an end? 56% of the respondents believed that the price rise of raw materials and other problems faced by China's foreign trade might be alleviated in 2022, 12% of the respondents believed that the status quo might be maintained, and 18% of the respondents believed that the problem might be more serious.
In this regard, Hu Qimu, chief researcher of Sinosteel Economic Research Institute, is on the side of most respondents. He believes that the trend of commodity prices in 2022 can be seen from three aspects: first, the contraction of the Federal Reserve has weakened the monetary and financial factors of commodity prices; Second, the domestic policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is actually made from the two aspects of supply and demand, and the effect of alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand and restraining the continuous rise of prices continues to appear; Third, the "triple pressure" proposed by the central economic work conference is bad for the commodity market. Therefore, he believes that although commodity prices are still at an all-time high, the price fluctuation center is expected to continue to move downward in 2022.
Foreign trade enterprises will intensify the transformation of domestic and foreign trade integration
The construction of a new pattern of domestic and international integration is an important part of promoting the development of both domestic and international circulation. This is also further confirmed in this survey. 90% of the respondents believe that foreign trade enterprises will strengthen the integration and transformation of domestic and foreign trade. Recently, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade, which made arrangements for promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade, forming a strong domestic market and unblocking the domestic and international double cycle, and put forward 15 working measures from four aspects.
The opinions put forward that by 2025, the connection between domestic and foreign trade laws and regulations, regulatory system, business qualification, quality standards, inspection and quarantine, certification and accreditation will be more effective, the development level of foreign trade integration within market entities will be further improved, the domestic and foreign connectivity network will be more perfect, government management services will be continuously optimized, and the regulation system of domestic and foreign trade integration will be more perfect, Achieve efficient operation and integrated development of domestic and foreign trade.
According to the respondents, the transformation of domestic and foreign trade integration is not an expedient measure to deal with the changes of the international environment, but an important strategic measure. For China's economy, it is a specific measure for China to further open up the domestic market and integrate into the world market. For enterprises, when China has become a "world market", bringing the domestic market into their planning is the only way to become a competitive international enterprise and global enterprise.
The foreign trade business of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially specialized and special new enterprises, will gradually increase
Beijing stock exchange was established, several measures to enhance the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises were issued, and the notice of the general office of the State Council on Further Strengthening the rescue and assistance to small and medium-sized enterprises was issued... Recently, various assistance policies have been issued all over the country, and small and medium-sized enterprises have ushered in an excellent period of development opportunities. The same is true in the field of foreign trade. The 14th five year plan for high-quality development of foreign trade proposes to promote the transformation and upgrading of small and medium-sized enterprises and take the international road of "specialization and innovation". The survey shows that 92% of the respondents are optimistic about the new progress made by small and medium-sized enterprises in the field of foreign trade or internationalization.
According to the respondents, increasing the development of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises, especially supporting the internationalization of specialized and special new enterprises, can increase the number of foreign trade subjects, effectively drive small and medium-sized enterprises to participate in the global division of labor, and enhance the innovation and development ability of foreign trade. To this end, respondents suggested the following two ways: first, build foreign trade bases and parks to improve the agglomeration of small and medium-sized enterprises and build foreign trade enterprise clusters; Second, further improve the foreign trade development platform, improve the digital level of foreign trade, realize the transformation and upgrading of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises, and enhance the international competitiveness of products and services.
All parties hope that China US economic and trade relations will be improved
In this survey, some respondents have great differences of views, so they are not presented in these trends, such as whether new concepts such as meta universe will drive the development of foreign trade in relevant industries, etc. However, as China US economic and trade relations are the focus of world attention, its trend will have a far-reaching impact on the world economic and trade pattern.
Therefore, here we show the survey results: 40% of the respondents believe that China US economic and trade relations will maintain the status quo, 34% of the respondents believe that it is uncertain, 20% of the respondents believe that it will gradually improve, and 6% of the respondents believe that it may gradually deteriorate. At the same time, all respondents said that 2022 marks the 50th anniversary of Nixon's visit to China. They hope that China US economic and trade relations can be improved at this node of special significance.
