The "golden nine" peak season in September failed. Is the "silver ten" in 2022 still worth looking forward to? Faced with the sales volume of only more than 20000 vehicles in the same period last October, can the tractor market reap the first growth in 2022 as expected?
The answer is still no, the tractor market is still not reaping the long-awaited growth, and the continuous decline continues. Then, will the tractor market decline by one keyword in October? Are there any other interesting points to pay attention to?
The actual sales of tractors in October were 15100 units month on month and down year-on-year
According to the latest terminal sales data, in October 2022, 15,100 domestic tractors (excluding exports and military products, the same below) will be sold, with a month on month decrease of 22%, a year on year decrease of 37%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5 percentage points less than that of the previous month (- 42%). Compared with the same period last year, the terminal sales of 15100 units in October this year decreased by about 8800 units, about 63% of the same period last year, which is the second time that the terminal sales of tractors this year exceeded 60% of the same period last year (from January to July this year, the terminal sales in no month exceeded 50% of the same period last year, the sales in August was about 76% of the same period last year, and the sales in September was about 58% of the same period last year), The sales volume of tractor terminals has experienced "10 consecutive drops" in 2022.
In terms of figures alone, due to the low sales volume in the same period last year (only 23900 vehicles, the lowest sales volume in 2021) and the traditional "peak season" of the heavy truck market in October, October is almost the most promising month for the tractor market to grow this year, but in fact, This seems to have been very "low" in the same period, which is still "too high" for the current market (the average actual sales of tractors from January to September this year is only 17600); On the other hand, it is also the main reason - demand. Since 2022, the logistics and transportation market has not seen any substantial benefit. It is difficult to stimulate too much terminal demand, and it is normal that the peak season is not "prosperous".
It can be seen from the monthly trend chart of tractor terminal sales in recent three years that this year's tractor market can almost be described as "close to the ground". The sales curve of tractor market from January to October this year is only higher than that of February 2020, when the epidemic hit. In October of this year, the sales of 15100 tractors accounted for 44.55% of the terminal sales in the whole heavy truck market. From January to October of this year, the sales of tractors in the whole heavy truck market accounted for 42.56%.
15100 cars. This month's sales volume is hardly outstanding in any year. From January to October this year, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market was only 17400 units. You should know that in the second half of last year, when the heavy truck market was affected by the six national laws and regulations switching, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market was close to 30000 units. However, considering the current lack of terminal demand, It is not easy for the tractor terminal market to decrease by less than 50% year on year for three consecutive months (the tractor terminal sales in August and September decreased by 24% and 42% year on year respectively). It can be seen from the above figure that the cumulative sales decline of the tractor terminal market is narrowing month by month. The cumulative decline after October is 10 percentage points smaller than that after April, but the cumulative decline of 70% from January to October is still "shocking".
"Three consecutive increases" of Hanma/XCMG before the return of Jiefang Top Heavy Truck
As the most competitive segment in the heavy truck market, the "fight" in the tractor market is the most exciting. When the industry goes down as a whole, enterprises are more active in fighting for the market, and the monthly ranking changes every month.
In October, no enterprise in the tractor terminal market continued to sell more than 10000 units. The top five enterprises, Jiefang, Heavy Truck, Dongfeng, Foton and Shaanxi Automobile, all sold more than 1000 units, with 4296 units, 2988 units, 2692 units, 2095 units and 1915 units respectively.
It can be seen from the above table that although the tractor market as a whole continues to experience a decline, there are still enterprises that have achieved growth in terms of tractor manufacturers. In October, three of the top 12 enterprises in terminal sales continued to achieve growth, one more than in September. The sales of XCMG Heavy Truck, Hanma Technology and United Truck increased by 28%, 19% and 14% year on year respectively in October, of which XCMG Heavy Truck and Hanma Technology (Valin Heavy Truck) have achieved growth for three consecutive months; The decline of enterprises reached double-digit, and there were still many enterprises with a decline of more than 40%. The sales volume of the enterprises with the most serious decline among the top ten in sales volume fell 82% year on year in October; However, a number of enterprises, such as Sinotruk, Dongfeng, and Foton, saw their year-on-year decline in October lower than that of the industry as a whole, outperforming the "market". It is worth mentioning that Foton and Huma Technologies have outperformed the tractor market for 10 consecutive months this year.
The pace of the month on month decline of the tractor market is the same as that of the tractor market in October. Most enterprises in the tractor market experienced a month on month decline in their sales in October. Among the top 12 enterprises in terms of sales, only XCMG Heavy Truck and United Truck performed better in October than in September. XCMG and United Truck also gained their highest monthly ranking in the tractor terminal market this year - No. 7 and No. 11.
From the perspective of market share, the top ten enterprises of tractor terminal sales in October accounted for 98.56% of the total market share, and the enterprises after the top 10 only sold more than 200 vehicles in total. Among them, FAW Jiefang, which ranked first, sold 4296 tractors in October, with a monthly share of 28.5%, and continued to eat more than 1/4 of the tractor market alone. From January to October this year, the cumulative share of Jiefang in the tractor terminal market has reached 29.03%; In October, Heavy Truck returned to the top 2 of the monthly list of tractor sales with 2988 vehicles, leading the third place by nearly 300 vehicles, with a monthly share of 19.82%; Dongfeng and Foton, which ranked 3rd and 4th, both sold more than 2000 vehicles, 2692 and 2095 vehicles respectively, with a monthly share of 17.86% and 13.9% respectively; In October, Shaanxi Automobile ranked fifth in the monthly list of tractor sales, with 1915 units sold, and the monthly share was 12.7%. The total share of the top five enterprises in October reached 92.79% (the total share of Top 5 enterprises in the tractor industry has exceeded 90% for two consecutive months, and 90.71% in September), and Top 5 enterprises in the tractor industry continue to lead the major forces by a large advantage.
The first 10 months: the ranking changes every month New energy continues to "stir up"
From January to October this year, the cumulative actual sales of the tractor terminal market was only 173800, a 70% year-on-year drop, with a net decrease of about 410000, which is less than 30% of the cumulative sales in the same period last year. The ranking of tractor terminal sales from January to October this year has changed greatly compared with the ranking at the end of 2021: Foton Motor, which ranks fifth at the end of 2021, temporarily ranks fourth in the industry after October; Sany and Universiade rose from the 7th and 8th positions at the end of 2021 to the 6th and 7th positions in the industry; Hanma Technology, which failed in the top ten at the end of the year last year, has outperformed the "market" for 9 consecutive months and is now ranked 9th in the industry.
From the perspective of market share, compared with the same period last year, 7 of the top 10 enterprises in terms of cumulative sales from January to October this year achieved growth in share. The most obvious growth was that of Foton and Dongfeng, which increased by 2.6 percentage points and 1.35 percentage points respectively. Liberation also increased by nearly 1 percentage point, or 0.97%, compared with the same period last year; The cumulative shares of Hanma Science and Technology, Universiade, XCMG and Sany increased by 0.62%, 0.46%, 0.25% and 0.02% respectively.
The change is also reflected in the ranking. Compared with the same period last year, only four of the top ten enterprises with accumulated sales from January to October this year, namely Jiefang, Heavy Truck, Dongfeng and Xugong, remained unchanged; Four enterprises, including Foton, Sany, Universiade and Hanma Technology, rose in the rankings. Among them, Hanma Technology rose from the 12th place in the industry in the same period last year to the 9th place in the current industry, Foton rose one place to the 4th place in the industry, and Sany and Universiade also rose one place compared with the same period last year. Of course, if there is a rise, there will be a fall. There are also many enterprises whose industry rankings from January to October this year have declined compared with the same period last year.
From January to October this year, the sales of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminals accounted for 4.2%, while in the field of tractors, the proportion reached 5.59%. This year, 9723 of the 173800 tractors listed nationwide are new energy tractors. According to the observation of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, from January to October this year, all mainstream tractor enterprises have new energy tractors on the road. As of October, the proportion of new energy in the tractor terminal sales of three enterprises has exceeded 60%. Among the tractors sold by XCMG, Hanma Technology and Beiben this year, the proportion of new energy tractors has reached 74.74%, 69.51% and 64.11% respectively; In addition, Sany and SAIC Hongyan also accounted for 36.62% and 27.61% of new energy tractors respectively.
Among the top 5 enterprises in the tractor industry, Foton new energy tractors accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 3.51%. Dongfeng and Shaanxi Automobile sold 2.88% and 1.05% of new energy tractor models this year, respectively.
From January to October of this year, most of the enterprises with a high proportion of new energy in the sales volume of tractors achieved an increase in the industry ranking or market share. Taking Hanma Technology as an example, from January to October this year, Hanma Technology has sold 2099 Valin tractors, a year-on-year cumulative decline of 40% (the smallest decline for mainstream enterprises), and its cumulative share has increased by 0.62% over the same period last year. The industry ranking has risen from the 12th place in the same period last year to the 9th place in the industry. The proportion of new energy of tractors sold by Hanma Technology this year has reached 69.51%. The new energy tractors have contributed a lot to the "improvement" of Hanma Technology.
Concluding remarks
In 2022, the competition in the tractor field has been extremely fierce since the beginning of the year. After 10 rounds of fierce competition, the market pattern has quietly changed; On the other hand, the competition in the tractor market this year is not only in the competition of traditional models, but also in the competition of new energy models. The "dominant" enterprises in the field of new energy tractors, such as Hanma Technology and Beiben, are constantly stirring the domestic tractor industry pattern.
In the peak season of "golden nine and silver ten", both failed to make an appointment. Is there any hope for the tractor market in 2022? From the data alone, it is hard to expect. The average actual sales of the terminal in the last two months of 2021 will be about 29000 units. In contrast to the demand of the heavy truck market that has been slow to improve, the tractor terminal market is likely to end in 2022 with "12 consecutive drops".
