On April 23, the Advanced Research Institute of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics released the "Analysis and Forecast Report on China's Macroeconomic Situation in the First Quarter of 2020". The report believes that the outbreak of the epidemic in the world has a major impact on the globalized world economy and has Has adversely affected the Chinese economy.
The report believes that from the perspective of the world's industrial chain, the epidemic has severely dampened consumer confidence in developed economies and triggered a sharp contraction in production activities. This sudden drop in external demand has seriously dragged down China's exports, especially for the industries such as electromechanical, textile, and clothing. In addition, the epidemic has hindered the production of some Chinese foreign trade companies involved in the production of the global industrial chain, reducing China's supply to the global industrial chain.
In the first quarter of 2020, in terms of RMB, the total import and export of goods was 657.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. In terms of US dollars, total imports and exports were US $ 943.22 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%. Among them, total exports were US $ 478.21 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%; imports totaled US $ 465.01 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%.
The report believes that what is more serious is that the outbreak of the epidemic has hindered the transnational flow of resources, posing a huge challenge to China's domestic production supply chain. The impact of the epidemic will not only affect individual industries and foreign trade departments, but will also have ripple effects in the country through the supply chain. The impact of the epidemic will continue to spread through upstream and downstream associations, eventually spreading to all industries, and the overall economy will face a severe downward situation. .
In response to the disruption of the international industrial chain caused by the epidemic, the report predicts that countries have to passively supplement domestic production lines, which objectively leads to the shrinking of the global industrial chain and the trend of strengthening trade protectionism. At the same time, the increase in global trade risks will further increase The reduction of foreign direct investment (FDI) has led to global redistribution and rebalancing of productive capital in the long run.
From the perspective of global value chain participation (backward participation), the report analyzes that industries with higher proportion of external value added in exports will be more affected by the epidemic. The current major industries and their external value added account for: coke and refined petroleum products manufacturing (about 35%), computers, electronic products and optical products manufacturing, power equipment manufacturing (about 30%), rubber and plastic products manufacturing, basic metals Manufacturing, manufacturing of other transportation equipment (about 18%).
Among them, the external value-added of industries such as computer, electronic products and optical product manufacturing, and power equipment manufacturing accounted for nearly 50% of the total external value-added. Therefore, the risk of external industry chain supply disruption will mainly affect these industries.
In addition, if certain industries have a higher proportion of imports of intermediate goods for export, the greater the external impact, the proportion of these industries and their exports of intermediate goods imports are: computers, electronic products and optical products Manufacturing, power equipment manufacturing (about 53%), textile manufacturing (about 43%), electronic equipment, chemical industry, basic metal manufacturing (about 30%). The report predicts that these industries will also be greatly affected.
The report believes that the impact of the new crown epidemic on the international industrial chain has not only exacerbated the downward pressure on China's economy in the short term, but also posed a challenge to mid- and long-term development. From another perspective, this further highlights the necessity and urgency of changing the growth model, and puts forward higher requirements for accelerating the development of the service industry and economic structural transformation, depending on whether economic growth can be oriented from external demand, factor-driven to consumption Leading, efficiency-driven power switching.
