Can the heavy truck and tractor market look like the peak season in September? Can we reap the first growth in 2022? You know, this round of decline in the tractor market has lasted for 15 months. The answer is no, there is still no long-awaited growth, and the continuous decline continues. Then, will the tractor market in September fall by one keyword? Are there any other interesting points to pay attention to?
The actual sales of 19300 tractors in September increased by 3% month on month
According to the latest terminal sales data, 19300 domestic tractors will be sold in September 2022 (excluding exports and military products, the same below), with a month on month growth of 3% and a year-on-year decline of 42%. The month on month growth has been achieved for two consecutive months, but the year-on-year decline is significantly larger than that of the previous month (- 24%). Compared with the same period last year, the terminal sales volume of 19300 units in September 2022 will decrease by about 13800 units, about 58% of the same period last year. This is the second time that the terminal sales volume of tractors this year has exceeded 50% of the same period last year (in January June this year, the terminal sales volume in no month has exceeded 30% of the same period last year, the sales volume in July is about 49% of the same period last year, and the sales volume in August is about 76% of the same period last year). The terminal sales volume of tractors in 2022 has experienced a "nine consecutive drops".
In terms of figures alone, since the sales volume in the same period last year was not high (only 33100 units), and September was the traditional "peak season" of the heavy truck market, the market had a high expectation for the sales volume of tractors in September, but in fact, the sales volume in the same period, which is not high, is still "too high" for the current market situation (the average actual sales volume of tractors from January to August this year was only 17400 units); On the other hand, it is also the main reason - demand. Since 2022, the logistics and transportation market has not seen any substantial benefit. It is difficult to stimulate too much terminal demand, and it is normal that the peak season is not "prosperous".
It can be seen from the monthly trend chart of tractor terminal sales in recent three years that this year's tractor market can almost be described as "close to the ground", and the sales curve of this year's tractor market from January to September is only higher than that of February 2020, when the epidemic hit. In September of this year, the sales of 19300 tractors accounted for 46.43% of the terminal sales in the whole heavy truck market. From January to September of this year, the sales of tractors in the whole heavy truck market accounted for 42.38%.
19300 vehicles. This month's sales volume is hardly outstanding in any year, let alone the sales volume of "Golden Nine". From January to September this year, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market was only 17600 units. You should know that in the second half of last year, when the heavy truck market was affected by the six national regulations switching, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market was also close to 30000 units. However, considering that the current terminal demand is really weak, it is not easy for the tractor terminal market to decline by less than 50% year-on-year for two consecutive months (the tractor terminal market dropped by 24% year-on-year in August). As can be seen from the above figure, The cumulative sales decline of the tractor terminal market is narrowing month by month. The cumulative decline after September is 8 percentage points smaller than that after April, but the cumulative decline of more than 70% from January to September is still "shocking".
Liberation tops Dongfeng leaps to the second place. Fukuda maintains the top three Han Malaysians and improves the top eight
As the most competitive segment in the heavy truck market, the "fight" in the tractor market is the most exciting. When the industry goes down as a whole, enterprises are more active in fighting for the market, and the monthly ranking changes every month.
In September, no enterprise in the tractor terminal market continued to sell more than 10000 units. The top five enterprises, Jiefang, Dongfeng, Foton, Heavy Duty Truck and Shaanxi Automobile, all sold more than 2000 units, with 5350 units, 3339 units, 3230 units, 3098 units and 2523 units respectively.
It can be seen from the above table that although the tractor market as a whole continues to experience a decline, there are still enterprises that have achieved growth in terms of tractor manufacturers. Two enterprises continued to achieve growth in the top 12 terminal sales in September. The sales of Huma Technology and XCMG Heavy Truck increased 52% and 6% year on year respectively in September, and both enterprises achieved growth for two consecutive months; The decline of enterprises reached double-digit, and there were still many enterprises with a decline of more than 40%. Among the top ten enterprises with the most serious decline in sales volume, the sales volume in September fell 79% year on year; However, Dongfeng, Foton, Sany, Universiade and other enterprises also saw their year-on-year decline in September lower than that of the industry as a whole, outperforming the "market". It is worth mentioning that both Foton and Huma Technologies have outperformed the "big market" of the tractor market for nine consecutive months this year. In September, Huma Technologies achieved its fourth growth this year, ranking 8th in the monthly ranking, while Foton maintained its highest monthly ranking in the tractor end market this year, ranking 3rd.
The pace of the month on month growth of the tractor market is the same as that of the tractor market in September. Half of the enterprises in the tractor market achieved a month on month growth in their sales in September. Among the top 10 enterprises in terms of sales, 5 of them performed better in September than in August. Among the top 5 enterprises in the industry, Dongfeng, Foton and Shaanxi Automobile increased by 18%, 4% and 21% month on month respectively.
From the perspective of market share, the top ten enterprises of tractor terminal sales in September accounted for 97.85% of the total market share, and the enterprises after the top 10 only sold more than 400 vehicles in total. Among them, FAW Jiefang, which ranked first, sold 5350 tractors in September, with a monthly share of 27.67%, and continued to eat more than 1/4 of the tractor market alone. From January to September this year, the cumulative share of Jiefang in the tractor terminal market has reached 29.08%; In September, Dongfeng ranked in the top 2 of the monthly list of tractor sales with 3339 vehicles, ahead of the third hundred vehicles, with a monthly share of 17.27%, which is the highest ranking of Dongfeng in the monthly list of tractor sales this year; Foton, ranking the third, actually sold 3230 tractors in September, with a monthly share of 16.7%. Foton has been in the top three of the monthly list for two consecutive months; The No. 4 and No. 5 heavy trucks and Shaanxi Auto sold 3098 and 2523 vehicles respectively, with a monthly share of 16.02% and 13.05% respectively. The total share of the top five enterprises reached 90.71% in September (up from 89.91% in August), and TOP 5 in the tractor industry continued to lead the major forces by a large advantage.
The first nine months: ranking changes month by month New energy continues to "stir" the industry pattern
From January to September of this year, the cumulative actual sales of the tractor terminal market was only 158800, down 72% year on year, with a net decrease of about 400000, which is only 28% of the cumulative sales of the same period last year. The ranking of tractor terminal sales from January to September this year has changed greatly compared with the ranking at the end of 2021: Foton Motor, which ranks fifth at the end of 2021, temporarily ranks fourth in the industry after September; Sany and Universiade rose from the 7th and 8th positions at the end of 2021 to the 6th and 7th positions in the industry; Hanma Technology, which failed in the top ten at the end of the year last year, has outperformed the "market" for 9 consecutive months and is now ranked 9th in the industry.
From the perspective of market share, compared with the same period last year, 7 of the top 10 enterprises in terms of cumulative sales from January to September this year achieved an increase in share. The most obvious growth was that of Foton, Dongfeng and Jiefang, which increased by 2.74 percentage points, 1.21 percentage points and 1.14 percentage points respectively; The cumulative shares of Hanma Science and Technology, Universiade, XCMG and Sany increased by 0.64%, 0.53%, 0.23% and 0.04% respectively.
The change is also reflected in the ranking. Compared with the same period last year, only four of the top ten enterprises with accumulated sales from January to September this year, namely Jiefang, Heavy Truck, Dongfeng and Xugong, remained unchanged; Four enterprises, including Foton, Sany, Universiade and Hanma Technology, rose in the rankings. Among them, Hanma Technology rose from the 12th place in the industry in the same period last year to the 9th place in the current industry, Foton rose one place to the 4th place in the industry, and Sany and Universiade also rose one place compared with the same period last year. Of course, if there is a rise, there will be a fall. More than one enterprise's industry ranking from January to September this year has declined compared with the same period last year.
From January to September this year, the sales of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminals accounted for 4.1%, while in the field of tractors, the proportion reached 5.62%. This year, 8919 of the 158800 tractors listed nationwide are new energy tractors. According to the observation of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, from January to September this year, all mainstream tractor enterprises have new energy tractors on the road. As of September, the proportion of new energy in the tractor terminal sales of three enterprises has exceeded 60%. Among the tractors sold by XCMG, Hanma Technology and Beiben this year, the proportion of new energy tractors has reached 73.75%, 69.13% and 64.18% respectively; In addition, Sany and SAIC Hongyan accounted for 36.0% and 26.99% of new energy tractors respectively.
Among the top 5 enterprises in the tractor industry, Foton's new energy tractors accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 3.69%. The new energy models of tractors sold by Dongfeng and Sinotruk this year also accounted for 2.56% and 1% respectively.
From January to September of this year, most of the enterprises with a high proportion of new energy in the sales volume of tractors achieved an increase in the industry ranking or market share. Taking Hanma Technology as an example, from January to September this year, Hanma Technology has sold 1973 tractors, a year-on-year cumulative decline of 41% (the smallest decline for mainstream enterprises), and its cumulative share has increased by 0.64% over the same period last year. The ranking of the industry has risen from the 12th to the 9th place in the same period last year. The proportion of new energy of tractors sold by Hanma Technology this year has reached 69.13%. New energy tractors have contributed a lot to the above-mentioned "improvement" of Hanma Technology.
Concluding remarks
In 2022, the competition in the tractor field has been extremely fierce since the beginning of the year. After 9 rounds of fierce competition, the market pattern has quietly changed; On the other hand, the competition in the tractor market this year is not only in the competition of traditional models, but also in the competition of new energy models. The "dominant" enterprises in the field of new energy tractors, such as Hanma Technology and Beiben, are constantly stirring the domestic tractor industry pattern.
The "peak season" in September has failed. Is the "Silver Decade" still worth looking forward to? You should know that the sales volume of tractor terminals in October 2021 is very low, only 23900 units, which is the lowest month in 2021. Then, will the first growth of the tractor terminal market in 2022 occur in October?
