According to statistics from China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 excavator manufacturers included in the statistics in August 2020 sold a total of 20,939 excavators of various types, a year-on-year increase of 51.3%; of which 18,076 were domestic, a year-on-year increase of 56.3%; exports were 2,863 units, a year-on-year increase An increase of 25.7%.
From January to August 2020, a total of 210,474 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%; of which, 190,222 were domestic, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%; and 20,252 were exported, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%.
Excavator sales in the first eight months of this year have reached 89.3% of the full-year sales of 2019. In 2020, excavator sales have reached a record high.
Regarding the trend of excavator sales in September, major institutions have also made predictions:
CME predicts that the sales of excavators in September is expected to reach 26,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 64%; among them, the domestic market is estimated to sell 23,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of about 74%;
CICC analysts predict that the sales of excavators in September may continue to exceed market expectations, with a year-on-year growth rate expected to exceed 60%; the annual sales of excavators are expected to grow by more than 25% year-on-year. In the medium and long term, the construction machinery industry is expected to maintain a small growth in the next two years;
Western Securities predicts that domestic excavator sales in September reached 19,893 units, an increase of 50.9% year-on-year. In terms of different regions, sales growth in September mainly came from North China and Southwest China. With the end of the rainy season, sales in these two regions generally increased month-on-month. East China and Central China also experienced slight growth because the infrastructure in these two regions entered a small peak season. However, the higher sales in the first half of this year offset part of the demand in the second half of the year, so the month-on-month ratio only increased slightly. The epidemic in Xinjiang has ended, and sales have recovered strongly in September. The rainy season is coming again in South China, and the sales of excavators have dropped from the previous month.
In terms of infrastructure demand, from the perspective of special debt, the cumulative issuance of 3306.0 billion yuan from January to September 2020, a year-on-year increase of 51.9%, after the removal of shed reform and land storage projects, a year-on-year increase of 190.8%. From the perspective of funding, the year-on-year increase in infrastructure-related special debt from January to September will drive continued growth in infrastructure demand.
In terms of housing construction demand, with the gradual control of the new crown epidemic in China, the year-on-year growth rates of new real estate construction areas from June to August 2020 are 8.9%, 11.3%, and 2.4% respectively. On the other hand, the year-on-year growth rates of land transactions in the 100 major cities with significant leadership were 55.7%, 27.1%, and 13.8%, respectively, which is expected to provide strong support for the growth in demand for new housing construction in the fourth quarter.
On the whole, it is expected that the construction machinery market will remain "hot" in September, and the sales of excavators may increase by more than 60% year-on-year. From the perspective of downstream demand and host manufacturers' orders, the overall construction machinery market in the fourth quarter was slightly better than that in the third quarter.
