The reporter interviewed a number of industry insiders and experts and found that the construction machinery industry is facing the situation of AB face to face competition: on the one hand, the decline of sales volume and the increase of operation volume coexist, but the marginal improvement of industry demand is expected to rise as a whole; On the other hand, the progress of infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule is also considered by some market participants to have the possibility of a slight delay. There is a lag in boosting the demand for construction machinery products. Some interviewees believe that the machinery industry is still in a downward period.
This reflects the cyclical pain of the construction machinery industry and forces the head enterprises to open the "strategic toolbox" of the ironing cycle and seek increment from electrification, internationalization or diversification.
How to break the cycle curse will torture the wisdom of all construction machinery participants.
Decline in sales volume vs increase in operation volume
China Construction Machinery Industry Association has made statistics on the sales data of more than 20 construction machinery enterprises. In terms of sales volume, there was a year-on-year decline in the first two months, especially in domestic sales. From January to February, 40000 excavators were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, of which 25300 were sold in China, a year-on-year decrease of 37.6%. 16500 loaders were sold in the first two months, a year-on-year decrease of 0.49%; The domestic sales volume was 9786 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%; The export sales volume was 6694 units, with a year-on-year increase of 46.2%.
According to Pei Xiaojun, a doctoral student in the school of mechanical engineering of Tianjin University, from the monthly data since the beginning of the year, the performance of the construction machinery industry is hard to say and eye-catching. The main reason is that the growth rate in the first quarter of last year was too good, resulting in a year-on-year decline in sales this year. From the data of nearly two months, the situation has improved compared with that expected at the end of last year.
Yang Yong, a senior researcher at Yihe Yinfeng, told the securities times that in the first two months of this year, China's domestic sales of construction machinery products represented by excavators were sluggish, but the decline narrowed slightly; Exports continued to grow at a high speed. He believes that the decline in the second quarter will be significantly narrowed.
Although the sales volume of representative products in the domestic market declined, the operation volume showed an upward trend. According to the CCTV financial excavator index report, in February this year, the operation time of cranes, on-board pumps, excavation equipment and Drag Pumps increased by 32.7%, 3.9%, 3.5% and 2.7% respectively, which means that a large number of key projects are concentrated and the construction in progress is accelerated. From the perspective of truck cranes, crawler cranes, mixer trucks and other categories, the investment and construction efforts in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Shanxi, Hubei, Sichuan and other places are continuously increasing. Pei Xiaojun believes that this can be regarded as the feedback of many places on "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment".
Pei Xiaojun believes that the increase in work volume is also related to the start of the "counting from the east to the west" project. "Take Guizhou as an example. With the construction of the inter provincial direct optical cable project from Guiyang to Wuhan, 17 direct networks will be built in the first half of this year. The growth of the operation volume of truck cranes and Drag Pumps shows that the demand for the commencement of new projects in Guizhou is still releasing."
Progress delay and industry lag
Pei Xiaojun believes that "as the central government proposes to carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance, the resumption of work after the Spring Festival and the commencement of major projects will boost procurement confidence. From the perspective of special bonds, although the scale is flat, the pre issuance will also bring the expected marginal improvement of construction machinery demand."
In Yang Yong's view, construction machinery enterprises are greatly affected by the macroeconomic situation and capital expenditure. "This year, affected by the increase of capital expenditure, the performance of construction machinery enterprises in 2022 should be better, but due to the repeated epidemic, the performance in January and February is not obvious. I believe that moderately advanced infrastructure investment will be implemented; at present, the relevant progress may be slightly delayed."
Pei Xiaojun pointed out that although the central government proposed "moderately ahead", boosting demand lags behind. "From the perspective of enterprises I personally contacted, although the construction workload has increased and the price of mechanical products is stable, there is little response in the short term because the infrastructure has just started. On the contrary, due to encouraging customers to purchase intensively at the end of last year, the demand in January this year has become less."
The chief analyst of a securities firm also believes that from the perspective of industry cycle, machinery is still in the downward stage. "After the release of the 4 trillion investment plan in 2008, the construction machinery market reacted quickly, and ushered in a peak in 2011, and then entered a downward cycle. However, it began to rise again from 2017 and fell again in 2021. At present, it is possible for the market to rebound due to the moderately advanced infrastructure investment policy, but from the perspective of the industry cycle, it is still in the downward stage. The main focus of breaking the industry cycle can be It also depends on the rapid development of electric drive engineering machinery products. "
This reflects the cyclical pain of the construction machinery industry.
"Almost any manufacturing industry has periodicity, and it is difficult for the construction machinery industry to escape the curse of the cycle. It is just a relative weakening of the cycle." Yang Yong said.
In order to break the cycle curse, many enterprises have taken actions. Take Zoomlion as an example to hedge the cyclical impact of construction machinery through diversified development through the layout of agricultural machinery and new building materials. In terms of new materials, six factories are planned to be built this year, and a number of projects are under active negotiation. This is regarded by Yang Yong as a leading enterprise looking for incremental market breakthroughs to smooth the cycle and bring performance fluctuations.
Electrification and internationalization are regarded as two dimensions of future market increment. Yang Yong believes that electrification can improve efficiency and product generation, while internationalization can provide greater market space. "The cost performance of China's construction machinery products is still relatively high. With the enhancement of technical strength and the economic construction of most developing countries facing an upward cycle, the future market is very worth looking forward to."
