Foreword: Maya Xiao, senior analyst of interaction analysis, paints a positive picture for the global forklift Market: "our shipment forecast in 2021 is 20% higher than that in 2020, while our forecast in 2028 is 39% higher. To some extent, the sharp rebound in 2021 will enhance the growth base in the next decade."
Until 2019, the global forklift market has been underperforming for a long time. The situation got worse in early 2019 as concerns about the recession led the company to postpone planned investment in new material handling equipment. By the fourth quarter of 2019, orders had increased significantly, but then the pandemic hit. In the first quarter of 2020, orders fell by nearly 70% year-on-year.
However, as the pandemic pushed e-commerce to an unprecedented level, orders rebounded sharply, especially in China. Like many industries, forklift manufacturers subsequently faced the problem of being unable to deliver large orders due to blocked supply chains.
The high growth in the first half of 2021 will be offset by the slowdown in the second half of 2021
In 2021, due to the shortage of raw materials (especially steel) and the rapid rise of logistics prices (especially shipping), the gap between orders and shipments widened, and the cost of a single container increased by 500%. Most importantly, labor shortages and energy supply problems continue to hinder production. As shown in the figure above, the growth of shipments in 2021 is about half that of orders.
During the pandemic, forced social distance and problems caused by absenteeism of factory and warehouse employees contributed to the growth of orders. This, coupled with the growth of e-commerce logistics and a large number of vacant jobs, has accelerated the shift to automation as companies strive to make their enterprises face the future and make them more flexible to respond to sudden changes in demand.
Not surprisingly, China led the market - with 590000 orders in the first quarter of 2021. The order volume in the first three months is equal to that in the first 4.5 months of 2020. But in the second half of this year, due to global supply chain problems, we will see a significant slowdown in growth. Finally, the overall growth this year will balance to about 30%. From 2021 to 2030, the global compound annual growth rate will be 6.1%. By 2030, the global annual sales volume of forklifts will exceed 3.4 million units.
The shipment forecast for 2028 is about 40% higher than that in 2020
Overall, our forecast for the forklift market is much more positive than previously assumed. Our 2021 shipment forecast is 20% higher than the 2020 forecast, while our 2028 forecast is 39% higher. To some extent, the sharp rebound in 2021 has increased the growth base of the whole next decade. This is largely due to the experience of manufacturing and logistics during the pandemic, which has made it more determined to invest in automation solutions.
Clean energy stimulates growth
We haven't mentioned clean energy yet, but it will have a significant impact on the forklift market. In fact, to a large extent, it already has, because lead-acid electric forklift has been widely used for many years. However, the vigorous development of electrification in the automotive industry and the maturity of lithium batteries indicate that the forklift industry has ushered in a new dawn. In this era of safe, quiet, clean and intelligent indoor warehouses and factories, forklift solutions, including automatic equipment, are increasing.
All this has happened in the context of national and local governments' unremitting efforts to promote greener and more environmentally friendly industrial policies. We will study the business model of forklift electrification in later insight, but more and more forklift suppliers are building their electric forklift products, including lithium ion and fuel cell power supply.
By 2030, the market share of storage forklift will reach 48%
Storage forklift is the main driving force of the market. We predict that their market share will rise from 44% in 2021 to 48% in 2030.
From a regional perspective, in terms of shipments, the Asia Pacific region is in a leading position driven by China, Japan and South Korea. The Asia Pacific region accounted for 51% of global shipments in 2021, and this share is expected to rise to nearly 60% by 2030.
