This year, "double carbon" has been written into the government work report again, green and low-carbon development has attracted much attention, and an energy revolution is imminent. From the country's first side replacement tractor to the champion in the sales of replacement heavy trucks in the first month of the year of the tiger, XCMG once again added weight to the green infrastructure, focusing on the energy supplement plate of power replacement equipment, and the "100 billion" Blue Ocean was imminent.
XCMG expands power exchange industry chain
On March 3, XCMG held a joint venture signing ceremony with the State Power Investment Corporation, jiuhang energy and Wuxi Langston to jointly establish Jiangsu Juneng Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. to enter the energy supplement industry focusing on the production of power exchange equipment and the construction and promotion of power exchange power stations. This marks XCMG's "first hand" in the construction of supporting facilities in the new energy industry chain.
Qiu Cheng, chairman and party secretary of XCMG group, pointed out that the charging and replacement equipment industry is one of the key measures for XCMG to master the new technical route and expand and build a new industrial ecology. It is reported that XCMG has completed the construction of site selection and power official website in the early stage of the project, and the equipment has entered the site one after another. It will be officially put into operation in March.
At present, the power exchange mode is an important direction for the new energy of construction machinery vehicles, which can solve the common problems of new energy vehicles such as endurance anxiety, fast product depreciation and high price. The cooperative establishment of Jiangsu Juneng Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. is based on meeting the comprehensive energy supplement needs of new energy commercial vehicles of internal and external customers.
With the continuous innovation of power exchange technology, its advantages are shown. Take XCMG's electric replacement heavy truck model, which leads the country. Compared with the traditional charging mode, the energy supplement efficiency of electric replacement heavy truck is higher. The power replacement time is only 3-5 minutes, which can effectively improve the operation time and realize continuous operation; The battery maintenance is lower, and the "separation of vehicle and electricity" mode can reduce the pressure on users' purchase cost; The replacement power station has small land area and more convenient use. It has many advantages in battery life management and assisting power grid regulation.
Electrification of construction machinery is a foregone conclusion
Under the background of the national implementation of the "double carbon" goal, with the gradual maturity of the "three electricity" technology, the manufacturing cost of motorized products is continuously reduced. As a means of production, the whole life cycle cost of electrification is gradually attractive and economical compared with that of fuel oil, and the trend of electrification of engineering machinery is gradually approaching. The subdivided categories applicable to closed and fixed working environments such as ports, urban construction and mines have taken the lead in electrification. The demand for electrification of mainstream construction machinery such as excavators is expected to grow rapidly from 2024 to 2025, and the demand for renewal and replacement is expected to support the demand of domestic construction machinery industry. At the same time, the rapid development of electrification is expected to highlight the product competitive advantages of domestic main engine manufacturers and contribute to the global development of main engine enterprises.
Policy catalysis + three electricity technology tends to mature, and the construction machinery industry is expected to accelerate the process of electrification. In 2018, the Ministry of ecology and environment issued the technical policy for pollution prevention and control of off-road mobile machinery to encourage the application of new energy technologies such as hybrid power, pure electric and fuel cell in off-road mobile machinery, give priority to the development of new energy of power units of small and medium-sized off-road mobile machinery, and gradually achieve ultra-low emission and zero emission. In 2020, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the action plan for promoting the electrification of vehicles in the public domain to promote the electrification of construction machinery and accelerate the transformation of construction machinery industry to new energy. Therefore, under the background of realizing the goal of "double carbon" and building a new development pattern of double cycle, with the maturity of domestic "three electricity" technology and the continuous reduction of manufacturing cost, the whole life cycle cost of electrification of construction machinery may gradually become attractive and economical. Electrification has become one of the important directions of green development of construction machinery.
The subdivided categories applicable to application scenarios such as closed and fixed working environment have taken the lead in moving towards electrification. For example, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG group, Zoomlion, Shandong Lingong, Liugong machinery and other enterprises launched urban construction engineering vehicles such as muck transport vehicles, concrete mixers, loaders and aerial work platforms, while Sany group, XCMG group, Zoomlion and Tongli heavy industry launched electric port tractors, mining trucks, mining dump trucks and other vehicles. Therefore, after communicating with the main engine factory, the author predicts that the subdivided categories under specific application scenarios are expected to usher in the rapid growth of motorized products from 2022 to 2023, and the motorized demand of mainstream construction machinery such as excavators is expected to grow rapidly from 2024 to 2025. According to the prediction of GGII, the power consumption of construction machinery is large, and the average installed capacity of single lithium battery is about 5 times that of ordinary new energy vehicles. In 2025, the lithium battery demand will be 30gwh according to 30% lithium battery penetration rate. During the "14th five year plan" period, China's electric energy storage lithium battery shipment will exceed 60gwh, and the energy storage lithium battery market will officially enter the accelerated development period.
With the tide of separation of vehicle and electricity, the industry has added more help
The construction machinery industry has set off an upsurge of power exchange. Some people in the industry call 2022 the first year of large power exchange capacity. The large volume of power exchange will bring profits to equipment manufacturers. Some enterprises have begun to try to win the first opportunity.
Under the environment of "ensuring energy security" and "two new and one heavy" concepts, the replacement power station, as a part of the new infrastructure, was written into the government work report. The energy supplement industry of power station construction and related equipment production has reached the air outlet, which is just in time to solve the life anxiety of new energy equipment. Sany, XCMG and other enterprises have long seen the potential of their incarnation of a hundred billion level blue ocean, and jointly expand this market with power exchange head operators. These enterprises include state grid, Ningde times, GCL energy technology, Weilai, Aodong, bertan, etc.
First of all, the convenience of this mode with high energy supplement efficiency makes it feasible to popularize electrification on a large scale. Especially for the construction machinery industry, the construction period is no different from money, and the energy supplement efficiency of power exchange equipment is comparable to that of traditional fuel equipment. It is reported that the energy replenishment efficiency of the power exchange station built by the giant enterprises in the new energy sector in cooperation with the major main engine manufacturers of construction machinery is in the process of rapid improvement. The "Fuhai Xinhe" power exchange station in Shenzhen of China Southern Power Grid has been put into operation, and the single power exchange time is no more than five minutes. The power exchange time of Weilai second generation power exchange station and Narui innovation power exchange station is about 2-3 minutes, that of Geely Jinan power exchange station is about 1.5 minutes, and that of Ningde times power exchange station can be shortened to one minute at the fastest, Aodong new energy can complete all the power exchange processes in one minute, and the actual power exchange time is only 20 seconds. Chang'an new energy Chongqing power exchange station claims to have achieved rapid discharge in 30 seconds. It is conceivable that when these giants drive into the blue ocean, the charging time of electric equipment will be much lower than the 3-4 minutes required for fuel refueling.
Secondly, changing electricity makes the equipment more economical and affordable. Using battery leasing instead of purchasing batteries with the vehicle will help to reduce the initial purchase cost of the vehicle and effectively solve the problem of equipment battery depreciation. By the seller or a separate battery operator to bear the loss risk of this part, it is equivalent to giving the buyer a "reassurance". There is no huge amount of money in the past and no worries in the future. It also makes many end users with insufficient funds have the possibility of creating value with production tools, which further drives the prosperity of the market.
The core equipment of the power station is charging and discharging equipment, testing equipment and automation equipment. In terms of value, the unit investment of passenger car power exchange equipment is about 2 million yuan and that of commercial vehicle power exchange equipment is about 3 million yuan. Although the investment is large, the operators still have the possibility of profit. Olympic power's taxi replacement power station in Guangzhou has made a profit. Therefore, in the process of power replacement of construction machinery, operators, main engine manufacturers and end users should achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. Experts predict that there will be more than 2000 new replacement power stations in the whole industry in 2022, and the corresponding equipment space will exceed 4 billion yuan; In 2025, 16000 new replacement power stations can be added, and the investment in new equipment will exceed 30 billion yuan.
The power exchange mode is emerging, and the problem needs to be solved urgently
The current power exchange mode still has the following problems:
1. It is difficult to unify standards: enterprises are still in the stage of fighting alone, lack of fixed industry standards, and the universality of power exchange equipment is low. All enterprises cooperate to replace power stations and batteries, mainly serving their own brands. From the past to the present, we should know that "cars on the same track and books on the same text" is the premise of large-scale promotion.
2. Site selection: Although the power station is being actively arranged, it is still not widely distributed and the land is limited. Especially in central cities, the high land price will greatly increase the cost of building the station.
3. Profitability of power station replacement: although some operators with better benefits have achieved profitability, the overall profitability is not guaranteed. According to the calculation of Orient Securities, the utilization rate of passenger car replacement station needs to reach about 20% in order to achieve profit and loss balance, but in fact, it is often difficult to reach this single quantity. Compared with widely used passenger cars, the profit model of construction machinery and equipment replacement power station remains to be determined.
4. Technical problems: as far as the equipment itself is concerned, the production technology of replacement battery needs to be improved. Under extreme environments such as high and cold areas, the service life and attenuation of battery are still the "neck" problems of the industry. In terms of energy supplement equipment, the installation of charging pile and the construction of power exchange station is a special technology, which has not been mastered by construction machinery enterprises. As mentioned above, the power exchange stations used by the pioneers of construction machinery are all built by state-owned energy enterprises represented by the State Power Investment Corporation, or in cooperation with electric vehicle manufacturers represented by Weilai, power battery enterprises represented by Ningde era and power exchange equipment operators represented by Austrian movement, such as Xinjiang Shihezi Hengtai No. 1 power exchange station, the first national power investment heavy card charging and exchange station in Xinjiang, and the power exchange station The mining truck replacement power station of Yulong Copper Mine in Tibet jointly built by China Railway 19th Bureau.
The vigorous promotion of policies, enterprises' overweight and layout of the new energy market, a large amount of capital injection, and the improvement of technology and efficiency are all conducive to the power exchange mode. Since last year, capital and industrial chain enterprises began to pour into the construction and operation of power exchange network, and power exchange equipment gave birth to an exciting "100 billion" blue ocean.
