Events: according to China engineering machinery industry association mining machinery branch industry statistics data, from 1 to April 2018 to the statistics of the 25 mainframe manufacturing enterprises, total sales of various types of mining machinery products 86622, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%; total tonnage of 1 million 409 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 73.3%; flat average tonnage 16.3 tons, up 9.8% year on year. The domestic market sold 80947 units, an increase of 55.3% over the same period, and export sales of 5649 units, an increase of 106.3% over the same period.
Comments:
In 2018, the sales volume of excavators reached second in the same period in 2018, and 160 thousand of the total annual sales of excavators in 2018 were expected. In 2018, 1-4 months, total sales of various types of mining machinery products 86622, +57.9%, total tonnage of 1 million 409 thousand tons, +73.3%, average tonnage of 16.3 tons, +9.8%. In 2018, the sales volume of excavators in 2011 was close to the historical high point in 2011. It became the second highest sales volume in the same period, and continued to exceed market expectations. Sub products: large and medium-sized recovery is obvious, sales growth far beyond the small dig. In the 1-4 month of 2018, the domestic market (> 30t) sold 11807 units (+83.4%), with a market share of 14.6%, 20-30t sales of 20845 (+79.0%) and a market share of 25.8%, and 48295 units (+41.9%) in small dug (20t), and the market share of 59.7%; the growth of the sea outgoing mouth was superior to the domestic market. . In 2018 1-4, 5649 excavators were exported, compared to +106.3%, and 80947 domestic excavators were sold, up from +55.3%. According to the calculation of the updated demand, the demand for excavators brought about by equipment renewal in 2018 is about 165 thousand. Considering that there are some upside down in general new machine sales and updated demand, and taking into account the stronger sales performance in the first 4 months of this year, we maintain the forecast of 160 thousand units in 2018, which are expected to increase over the same period. It's about 15%.
"Along the way" and the global economic recovery in a total exportation, China and the United States trade war impact of less than 3 percentage points. In April 2018, the sales volume of excavator export increased 1518, up 109.7%, and continued to exceed the market expectations. 1) "one way" plus overseas expansion: 2018Q1, Chinese enterprises completed the total turnover of 18 billion 760 million US dollars for the countries along the road along the road, +30.4%.
2) the global economy continued to recover in 2018, and the OECD comprehensive lead index in March 2018 was 100.04, and 11 months exceeded 100 in a row. The global economic growth of 2018/2019 was expected to 3.9%/3.9%, the sustained global economic growth was expected to drive infrastructure construction in all regions, and the demand for export market of China's construction machinery is expected to maintain a high increase. Speed. 3) the overseas layout of domestic construction machinery leading enterprises has entered the harvest period, and it became the first year of overseas outbreak in 2018. In 2017, XCP realized overseas revenue of 3 billion 309 million yuan (+19.24%), and overseas revenue accounted for 11.36%; Sany realized overseas revenue of 11 billion 618 million yuan (+25.11%), overseas revenue accounted for 30.85%; Hengli hydraulics realized overseas revenue of 641 million yuan (+60.25%), and overseas revenue accounted for 23.05%. 4) we calculated that even if the Sino US trade friction formed a larger scale conflict, the effective impact on China's Excavator export would not exceed 3PCT. With the improvement of the global channel and the influence of China's construction machinery enterprises, it is expected that the growth of the overseas revenue of the construction machinery enterprises in 2018 will be higher than the domestic growth rate above 10PCT under the great global demand.
Industry concentration is further improved, and the 31 machine and Xu Wa sales volume is expected to achieve super industry growth. Industry concentration is further improved, and there is still room for space: in 1-4 months of 2018, the market CR4=53.5% (around +1pct) and CR8=77.3% (around +0.3pct), we believe that the market concentration of the excavator still has further improvement, and it is expected that the market will gradually fade from the beginning of May, and the small and medium sized excavators caused by the spillover of demand in the year of April seize the city. The market share will be eased. 31, Xugong, Caterpillar and other leading city accounts for a higher market share. 31, Xugong is expected to exceed the growth of the industry: the current 31, the overall quality of the XCP excavator products has been close to the global faucet such as Caterpillar, and the performance maintenance ability is relatively good, and the price advantage of the product is becoming more and more prominent. In 1-4 months of 2018, 31 excavators sold 17161 units (+40.93%), the market accounted for 21.2%, the increase of 0.5pct compared with the 1-3 month; the sales of Xugong excavator sales 9471 (+77.69%) accounted for 11.7%, and increased 1.2pct compared with the 1-3 month. We believe that 31, Xugong brand excavator 2018 market share is expected to be higher than 1PCT in 2017, sales volume is expected to achieve super industry growth.
Large and medium digging growth rate far exceeds small digging, it is expected that total industry revenue will exceed sales growth. In 1-4 years in 2018, Chinese Excavator enterprises sold the average tonnage of 16.3 tons of excavators (+9.8%), of which the average tonnage of domestic tonnage (+9.0%), the average tonnage of export 20.3 tons (+14.4%), the proportion of large and medium excavated sales increased obviously in both domestic and overseas markets. Based on the sales volume data of the domestic tonnage of 1-4 months in 2018, we assume that the average price of large, medium and small dug (including tax) is 200/90/30 million yuan / Taiwan, respectively. It is concluded that the revenue growth rate of enterprise excavators in 1-4 months of 2018 is about 69.40%, exceeding the sales growth rate of 14pct. Considering that the sales volume of large and medium-sized excavators is expected to continue to exceed the expected market growth, we expect that the annual growth rate of revenue growth of enterprise excavators will exceed 15pct in 2018.
The main equipment manufacturer's profit release is flexible enough. The growth of the parts and components manufacturers is high. They continue to be optimistic about Sany, Xugong machinery, Hengli hydraulic and Addie precision. The scale effect is expected to amortize the fixed cost effectively. With reference to the last cycle, the net interest rate of the leading industry is still more than 2 times more space. The profit of the leading enterprises is expected to be released over the market, and the profit table of the leading standard of the construction machinery in 2018 is expected to be effectively repaired. Our key recommendation: Sany (domestic excavator tap, continue to benefit from the high renewal demand of engineering machinery, the profit is expected to continue to release in 2018; the global layout enters the harvest period, the overseas revenue space is further opened) and the Xugong machinery (the crane lagging behind the excavator to benefit from the engineering machinery renewal demand, net profit) We think the company will grow into a leading oil tank and pump valve in the world. Production enterprise), Addie precision (new domestic hydraulic components industry, pump and valve has achieved mass supply of main engine factory, with sufficient quality in hand orders and high certainty in growth).
