Statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Mining machinery branch industry show that domestic excavator sales in 2017 hit a new high of nearly 5 years. The total number of 25 mainframe manufacturing enterprises included in the total sales of 140303 machinery products, up to 99.5%, of which 8 months of year-on-year increase was close to or more than 100%.
In the sales volume of the 140 thousand units, the sales volume in the domestic market (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) was about 130 thousand, an increase of 107% over the same period. There are about 10 thousand exports, up 32% over the same period.
In 2017, the sales volume of excavators also showed the characteristics of low season. In the past December, domestic market sales (Statistics category does not contain Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) are about 13 thousand, a year-on-year increase of 106.6%, in addition to a year-on-year growth of 72%.
According to the analysis report from Fang Zheng machinery, the 2017 excavator industry's outstanding performance mainly comes from three reasons: one is the strong renewal and replacement demand, the 2017 theoretical calculation value, the replacement demand ratio is close to 38%. The actual replacement demand is actually more than 50%. Second, the growth of domestic real investment is good. Third, the export market is good, and India, the United States and other markets are growing rapidly. Founder machinery predicts that in 2018, upgrading and export will continue to drive the excavator industry to maintain a steady growth of about 10%.
Lv Juan, the chief analyst of the agency, believes that, based on the premise that investment neutral is conservative, the sales of various types of engineering machinery in 2018 have maintained steady growth under the promotion of replacement and export, and the industry is keeping high growth in the profit margin under the cycle, and the investment opportunities are more significant. In this, the net profit of the host plant will remain high, and the first contribution to net profit growth is still the elasticity of profit margin from the report restoration, then the sales flexibility. Furthermore, the substitution channel for the import of core components has been opened. Under the dual drive of internal technological progress and external supply gap, the dominant national brand will enter the sustainable growth space.
Other securities firms are even more optimistic. Analysis from Pacific Securities believes that the domestic excavator sales growth is expected to grow by 200% in January 2018 and more than 30% in the first quarter, based on the lower base in January last year. In addition, the agency prejudged that the excavator will maintain a moderate growth rate of 15%-20% in 2018, and it is presumed that the sales of excavators will be between 16-17 million units in 2018. If this figure comes true, the excavator will continue to write the sales myth after 2011 (the 176 thousand most sales volume in the year).
