In February, the total sales volume of domestic excavators was 14530, an increase of 297.65% over the same period, which is expected by the super market. At the same time, it is also the highest monthly record in the history of excavator growth. Prior to the understanding of GF's grassroots understanding, the growth rate of several provinces was between 250-400%. In the point of view of the enterprises, Sany's excavator sales in February exceeded 3600 units (the highest record of the company's history in February, surpassing 2011), up by more than 360% from the same year. Other brands, Xugong, Carter, Hitachi, Komatsu and Dou Shan were more than 1000. In the resuscitation, the performance was very obvious.
According to Guang Fa Securities Research Report, although this year in February compared with the same period last year, overlay the new year factor, the base number of last year is lower (3654), in order to eliminate the influence of the past year, the sales data of the year 1-2 months will be collected and statistics, the cumulative sales volume of 1-2 months in 2017 is 188.89%, the sales growth rate is new since 2002. From the absolute sales volume, it is second only to 2011 and 2012 (31151 and 20839 units respectively).
No matter from sales growth or sales volume, the intensity of this round of warming is beyond expectations. Because of the superposition of two of the three handover countries in March last year, the absolute sales volume reached 13744 units with a high base. But historically, the single month sales in March were higher than those in February, and the monthly sales volume in March was 1.5 in 1-2 months, only below 1 in 2009 and 2004. The peak season sales in the first quarter usually determine the height of the year. Past historical data show that the average sales volume in the first quarter accounted for 32% of the whole year.
In addition to the excellent performance of the apparent data, the current terminal sales also show the following characteristics:
1. two mobile phones are still hot. Some models are out of stock. In the near future, we went to the largest second-hand market in China for grass-roots research, two mobile phone market is still very hot, the current situation is the supply of goods, two mobile phone has broken down, a good machine on the market is difficult. Two the boom in the mobile phone market indicates that the terminal is in good condition. At the same time, as two mobile phones have been fully developed, sales have been gradually transmitted to new machine sales.
2. the peak season in February is only the beginning. In March, it is the peak of the peak season. At present, the feedback from many dealers is extremely similar to 2010. At present, from the industrial chain, from the core components to the host assembly, the production is full. If the demand is sustained in March, it will be broken down. The consequences of breaking the goods are likely to usher in price adjustment.
3. the present demand presents a state of full diffusion. Not only is the excavator, not just the engineering machinery. According to our research, the current orders of the industrial equipment manufacturing industry are mostly in a state of doubling, and the demand is really better.
4. what drives demand to improve? At present, the fuse is driven by infrastructure projects and resource based activities, including large projects, mines, and rural infrastructure construction, and the contribution of the elements of real estate is weakening. At present, the proportion of capital construction has increased to more than 70% in many areas. In addition, the update demand has been reflected, the equipment life cycle is roughly 6-10 years according to the working conditions, and now has entered the update cycle. According to our calculation, the update demand has reached 2/3!
With the analysis of wide - hair securities, with the recovery of industry demand, the share of leading companies was further promoted, and Sany's January excavator accounted for 22.4%, compared with 2 percentage points in 2016. As the market driven, the price increase of the main investment mark has risen only 20-30% since last November. The focus of the market focus begins to shift from the medium term sustainability of the sales growth to the visibility of the profitability of the market. To clean up a more thorough company and continue to recommend the leading Sany, the next suggestion is to focus on the willow workers in the loader field, the Xugong machinery in the crane field, and the construction machinery of the market of the core parts and components.
China and Thailand Machinery forecast that in March, nearly 30 thousand excavator sales, an increase of 30-50% over the same period, is expected to continue to exceed expectations.
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