Recently, as China's 100 billion unicorn, Dajiang UAV was "upgraded and sanctioned", which attracted extensive attention from all walks of life. Its cloud design software was directly cut off by American companies, which aroused thousands of waves with one stone.
However, different from the "shortage of cores", many software companies in China quickly filled the vacancy under the supply interruption of figma to help them tide over the difficulties. It can be said that with China's forward-looking layout and deep cultivation in the field of industrial software and the strong substitutability of domestic software, the war of supply interruption in Dajiang has been skillfully resolved.
In this incident, we realize that under the complex international situation, China's manufacturing industry is besieged on all sides and is facing the blockade of all-round technologies such as industrial software, supply chain, scientific and technological equipment. Compared with the core supporting industry of construction machinery, although China has the world's largest industrial system and production supporting capacity, it has not entered the world recognized array of high-end products on the whole. The fundamental problem is that the autonomy of some basic key technologies and core parts is not strong, which leads to the weak industrial chain and becomes an uncertain factor restricting industrial development and affecting industrial security.
What is the current localization process of the "three mountains" - hydraulic system, engine and gearbox, which are the core and key parts of China's construction machinery? In case of "supply interruption", can domestic brands be competent and fill the vacancy? What is the most urgent and urgent technical breakthrough in China's construction machinery supporting industry?
Localization alternative 1: the "top" of the hydraulic system
"Those who get hydraulic pressure win the world". The hydraulic parts of construction machinery, which account for about 1 / 3 of the cost, are regarded as the "chip" in the eyes of major enterprises. China's domestic hydraulic parts, relying on the huge local market demand and the mature accumulation of product technology and production process, continue to expand the application field, and are rapidly narrowing the gap with the world's leading technology. Some high-end products are even comparable to the international mainstream products, steadily occupying the global market.
According to the statistics of markets and markets, the global hydraulic market scale in 2020 is about 258 billion yuan, while the market scale of China's hydraulic power machinery and component manufacturing industry accounts for 28% of the world, which is the second largest market, slightly lower than 34% of the United States and much higher than that of developed countries such as Japan and Germany.
From the perspective of the pattern of hydraulic products at home and abroad, China's excavator hydraulic cylinders have basically realized localization. Only Hengli hydraulic cylinders account for more than 50% of the domestic market. Before that, 80% of the domestic excavator cylinder market was occupied by KYB, Komatsu and other foreign-funded enterprises.
The market structure of hydraulic pump and valve. At present, the main foreign brands include Bosch Rexroth in Germany, Kawasaki heavy industry in Japan, David Brown in the UK, Eaton and Parker Hannifin in the United States. Although Kawasaki and Rexroth account for a high proportion in the field of Zhongda digging pump and valve, on the whole, Aidi, Hengli, Zhongchuan and other enterprises have supplied domestic main engine plants in batches.
In the hydraulic motor market, the domestic excavator slewing motors are mainly foreign-funded KYB and Danfoss, and the domestic brand Zhonghengli realizes small batch supply; Walking motors are mainly funded by nabotsk at home and abroad, and Eddie precision is one of the domestic manufacturers.
Benefiting from market dividends, accumulated technology research and development and product cost performance advantages, Hengli hydraulic and Aidi precision, as the two pillars, are vigorously promoting the localization and substitution of the hydraulic industry. Among them, the hydraulic traveling motor has been supplied in batch to Sany, XCMG, Liugong, Lingong and other domestic well-known main engine manufacturers, and the hydraulic pump valve has entered the trial stage of foreign well-known main engine manufacturers. Breakthroughs have been made in the field of pumps and valves, and the market share has continued to increase. While realizing the basic domestic replacement of hydraulic cylinders, the gap is constantly narrowing in the field of hydraulic pumps, valves and motors.
Although China's hydraulic localization development has made great achievements, the deficiency is that the localization process of high-end hydraulic parts is not ideal. Due to the high competition barrier of high-end hydraulic, the pattern is relatively firm. Although there are more than 100 mainstream hydraulic enterprises in China, there are few high-end players, and there is still a certain gap between the sales scale, market application and revenue scale and international giants.
Under the international trade crisis, assuming that the supply chain of foreign brands is blocked, although some high-end products can be comparable to and replaced by international mainstream products, the supply and demand of large tonnage hydraulic products in its core will also face no small challenge. Even if it can withstand it, there is still a gap from "good use".
At present, the scale of China's hydraulic parts market is more than 70 billion yuan, and imported hydraulic parts account for more than 25% of the total demand. If considering the establishment of foreign factories in China and the positioning of foreign brands as medium and high-end, the external dependence of China's high-end hydraulic parts is estimated to be more than 50%. There is a huge space for import substitution in the future, and the development of domestic hydraulic enterprises has great prospects.
Localization alternative II: engine "breakthrough war"
Restricted by the two bottlenecks of power system and hydraulic system, the core components of most excavators can only rely on imports, especially the medium and large tonnage excavators are almost monopolized by imported engines. The high dependence of key accessories on foreign brands has become the key to restrict the development of domestic excavators.
At present, the situation of foreign engine brands dominating the world is changing, and this "the most difficult bone" is being pried open by domestic head brands. In the field of Zhongda power with higher technical content, the "no man's land" of the past 15 liter engine has been firmly occupied by foreign brands. Nowadays, domestic head engines such as Weichai, Yuchai, Jiefang power and Shangchai not only cover the product lines of small, medium and large excavators, but also have been applied in batches to many well-known domestic mainframe factories, with a greater market share.
Weichai's new generation "n + H" full series of non Road National four products, and some w series products have completed Beijing four certification. And self-developed the world's first commercial diesel engine with thermal efficiency exceeding 50%. In 2020, the production and sales of engines will reach 1 million, and its assembly ratio in the field of domestic cranes, loaders, bulldozers and wide body mining vehicles will reach 64-85%.
Yuchai F series and a series have been applied to Liugong, Shanhe intelligent, Zoomlion, Yuchai heavy industry and other well-known domestic mainframe factories in batches. In 2021, the monthly engine sales exceeded 150000 units, reaching a new record.
The fourth stage of Jiefang power has 10 product platforms, with a displacement of 2-16l and a power coverage of 22-560kw. Its 27.5-ton excavator is sold in batches at temporary work, and Shanhe intelligent 20.5-ton excavator is installed in batches. As of May 18, 2021, Jiefang power has sold nearly 4000 excavators, setting a new historical record.
In 2020, the annual sales volume of SAIC exceeded 160000 units, breaking a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 69%, of which the sales volume of vehicle diesel engine increased by 84% and construction machinery increased by 36%. It has provided technologically leading products for customers of commercial vehicles, construction machinery, agricultural machinery, small and medium-sized ships and generator sets at home and abroad.
Although in the field of excavators, some domestic mainstream manufacturers still rely on foreign brands such as Yangma, Kubota, Isuzu and Cummins. However, on the whole, China's mainstream engine enterprises, with their perfect layout on the golden chain of powertrain and the continuous expansion of product type spectrum, have been on the same track with foreign mainstream brands, and even some domestic brands have achieved curve overtaking in terms of high horsepower and thermal efficiency.
At present, China's local brands have begun to rise and enclosure, and the market share of domestic engines is "grabbing food" from imported brands. It has become a general trend for the construction machinery industry to replace domestic engines and move towards the era of "China core" in an all-round way. The domestic engine supply chain is basically independent and controllable, which further helps the safety and stability of China's construction machinery supporting industry chain. The market position of Chinese and foreign brands in the field of construction machinery engines is growing and declining.
Localization substitution 3: the "off-site guest" of gearbox
In addition to pursuing the localization of the engine, the localization of its closely linked gearbox is equally important. However, at present, the development of China's high-end gearbox industry is "difficult". For example, the transmissions of high-end loaders with more than 8 tons in China almost all rely on imports, and even market rumors: the power shift gearbox has become an antique technology abroad, but it was once regarded as a "guest" by domestic manufacturers.
In the field of domestic excavators, whether Carter, Volvo, XCMG, Zoomlion, Sany and other mainstream manufacturers, basically adopt the gearbox of ZF of Germany and Dena of the United States.
In the field of domestic loaders, the domestic mainstream enterprises represented by Liugong, Longgong and Xiagong are equipped with German ZF fixed axle gearbox. The mainstream customers of Hangzhou Hangzhou gear in China are still domestic low-end loaders and some imported low-end equipment.
In addition, in the front crane, forklift, grader and other fields, it is almost impossible to escape the control of several international gearbox giants such as ZF and Dena.
At present, domestic well-known main engine manufacturers can develop their own power shift gearbox, such as TP170 reinforced planetary gearbox made by temporary workers, Lovol patented gearbox, fast gearbox and XCMG self-made power shift gearbox, but they are only satisfied with specific models, and the overall performance is still far from that of international giants. It can be said that the domestic gearbox accounts for a small proportion in the high-end market and is still in its infancy.
From this point of view, the development speed of domestic gearbox is slower than that of engine and hydraulic system. It is a hard bone that is difficult to bite but has to bite. At the same time, it is also a particularly urgent and urgent direction in China's construction machinery supporting industry. It is urgent for accessories enterprises to make great efforts in product performance, quality and market penetration.
In the current complex and changeable international trade and geopolitics, the upsurge of localization is coming strongly. At present, if China's construction machinery supporting industry wants to completely get rid of the situation of "import dependence". In addition to the guidance and support at the level of industrial policies such as cultivating "specialized and special new" little giants, it is also inseparable from the technological breakthrough at the enterprise level, such as making up for shortcomings in advanced basic processes, core materials and design, and deepening the combination of production, learning, research and application, so as to improve the stability, reliability and durability of domestic key parts.
There is a big gap in the development of post market at home and abroad
In the traditional market of construction machinery industry, maintenance and accessories are treated as passive after-sales service after equipment sales. Now, the main engine factory operates them as a new business model and forms the second post market development business on the basis of the development of complete machine business.
The fractal innovation of this model not only injects new growth power into the development of main engine plants, but also makes the development of agents more balanced, because when there are large fluctuations in the whole machine market, the revenue of the post market ensures the survival of agents, and the business of the post market is mainly affected by the equipment ownership and operating rate, which is much smaller than the fluctuation of the whole machine market.
Two thirds of the profits in mature markets in Europe and America come from post market business. In the mature markets of Europe and North America, enterprises attach great importance to the development of the post market, which is an important link for the main engine manufacturers and agents of construction machinery and equipment to realize the service premium. The golden section line of the profit structure pursued by enterprises is that two-thirds of the profits come from the post market and one-third from the sales of new equipment. In this way, when the new machine sales market declines, the income of the post market is an important guarantee for the "survival" of the enterprise.
The profit of domestic agent's post market business accounts for less than 40%. According to the survey data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in 2020, the whole machine sales business contributed 64% of the average operating profit of agents, and the post market business profit accounted for 36%, including 19.9% of the average operating profit of the agent group contributed by the parts sales business; The warranty service contributes an average of 9.1% of the operating profit to the agent group;
2. The mobile phone sales business is in a loss state; Operating lease contributes an average of 3.9% of the operating profit to the agent group; The warranty service and other maintenance service businesses contribute an average of 3.2% of the operating profit to the agent group; Financial services and other businesses contribute an average of 0.9% of the operating profit of the agent group.
Post market absorption rate (i.e. the ratio of post market income to enterprise operating cost) is an important index to measure the post market business operation of construction machinery agents. In the European and American markets, the revenue contribution of the post market of construction machinery agents accounts for 50% - 60% of the turnover of the whole company. The absorption rate of some excellent agents has exceeded 100%. Even if they do not sell new equipment, these agents can still survive, which makes the enterprise have a strong ability to resist risks. China has the largest number of construction machinery and equipment in the world, but the market absorption rate after agents is mainly hovering at a low level of 10-20%.
According to the survey data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in 2020, only 3.2% of the agents with a market absorption rate of more than 60%, 8.8% of the agents with an absorption rate of 40% - 60%, 40.0% of the agents with an absorption rate of 20% - 40%, and 24.0% of the agents with an absorption rate of 10% - 20% and less than 10% respectively.
Comparative advantages and outlet of accessories merchants
Based on the analysis of the environment and the market, the problems and contradictions of the accessories merchants have been very clear. In terms of time, how to spend the gloomy period of the market and win the future, and in terms of space, how to obtain the sales share as much as possible when the profit is limited.
So what are the competitive elements of accessories businesses?
As an accessory merchant, it is essentially a channel middleman, but it also provides a lot of value. One is to obtain customers and obtain a number of potential customers in demand locally; The second is circulation, so that distant parts and products can be circulated to customers; The third is service, which accurately selects the products that customers need and have cost performance from the vast number of accessories, which is a very professional knowledge service; The fourth is the after-sales and trust chain. The link of service is trust. The trust chain can effectively reduce the cost of commercial transactions and help customers solve the after-sales problems of products.
Therefore, first of all, we need to think about what value we provide to customers, what value other competitors can't eliminate and we have comparative advantages. How can we amplify these values?
Secondly, after the value is the price. As a commercial carrier, profit is our goal, and cash flow is the basis for us to survive. How to protect our cash flow, how to reduce our costs, how to increase our revenue and surpass our competitors in the competition are the core issues we must consider.
Comparative advantage 1: get customers
How many parts owners have not added new customers for a long time, and the increase of new customers is far less than the loss of old customers? Incremental market is horse racing enclosure, and the importance of getting customers is self-evident. The stock market also needs to win customers. If you have more customers, others will have fewer customers. In addition, you should pay more attention to the loss of customers than before, and you can't be cornered by your opponents.
Traffic is the source of business. In the past, customers came to you. Whoever raised a card for people to see can make money; Later, the traffic gathered into the market, and opening a shop in the store market can also make money; Once the golden age is over, it becomes to find customers, drive a car to visit and go through channels to visit customers; Next, the traffic is on wechat and gets customers by wechat group and word-of-mouth.
Therefore, in essence, where the customer flow is, the accessories merchants should go. Tiktok and WeChat are undoubtedly the places where traffic flows. If we do not go to the everfount, we will not take advantage of the trend of the times.
The author's suggestion is that in 2022, the manufacturers who also made accessories must learn tiktok's ability to win customers in the new era. They must do the jitter and private traffic, and how the operation will be detailed in the next article. If there are platforms, manufacturers and third-party brands that have a large number of low-cost user traffic as accessories, the living space of individual businesses will continue to be compressed.
Comparative advantage 2: circulation
Circulation is a value point that cannot be bypassed. Anyway, construction machinery is a production tool, which loses one day after stopping, so there is a high demand for the timeliness of accessories. With the development of logistics, manufacturers sink the bedding of channels and middlemen are further squeezed. There has been a very obvious phenomenon: national wholesalers begin to squeeze the market of provincial wholesalers and provincial wholesalers squeeze the survival market of terminal channel providers. Competition between provinces is also ubiquitous. For example, the Tianjin accessories market has shrunk due to the rise of Beijing, Shenyang, Changchun, Zhengzhou and Shijiazhuang markets. As the value link of circulation, we have to consider who I compete with and who I can compete with from the perspective of logistics response.
Comparative advantage 3: Service
In the past, products were the king, but now the gap between products has become smaller and smaller, and accessories merchants began to realize that they should become service providers. It is not difficult to find the reasons for the loss of dismantling customers. There are fewer and fewer factors attributed to the product itself, and more and more losses caused by services.
Excellent merchants manage their products very formally and do a good job in inventory, but this is only the low-level stage of business. The next stage is product service. Serving customers is not to sell products, but to solve problems. We should establish a business organization to help customers solve problems. The advanced stage is the commercialization of services. Like Haidilao, the service is standardized to be replicable, quantifiable and traceable. To reach this point, we can occupy the market as much as possible and realize large-scale.
After product service, you can firmly grasp a group of your own customers and remain invincible by relying on service; After the service is made into products, you will have the ability to attack cities, occupy land and develop on a large scale. Similarly, we also need to pay attention to whether there will be large organizations and chain brands with such capabilities.
Comparative advantage 4: trust
More difficult than service is trust. Trust is very subtle. A big brand is a brand. If you do a good job in brand building and have customer loyalty, you can enjoy a certain premium profit; Small is an individual's tendency. A customer may only trust you but not your employees, or trust your employees rather than your company. If he leaves, your customers will also lose.
Who can win the trust of customers at a lower cost will stand out in the market. Who can understand and manage this element of market trust and make it a manageable element, who can create a higher market. Some accessories tiktok tiktok, and found that the strange customer on the shaking voice has a higher turnover rate. The reason is that the tiktok short video shows you, and the strange customers can understand you in an all-round way. You can quickly achieve the trust foundation without line, which is why short video should become the standard of future accessories merchants.
After thinking about our comparative advantages through the above four dimensions, we should consider our own advantages from a commercial perspective, that is, reducing costs and increasing income. Survive at a low cost and increase our sales at a low cost. From rough management to fine management, from non-standard service to standard service. This is the category of management, which has various ways and methods, and also brings higher management requirements to players in the mature market.
The road is not far away. In fact, the outlet of accessories merchants has been preliminarily outlined above. So, as a reader, what do you think of the way out for accessories merchants? What kind of players can survive? How to choose?
