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Construction machinery industry express: 2017 balance sheet continued to be repaired, 2018 profit margin flexibility

Jan 24, 2018

Last year, sales reached 140 thousand units, up through: according to the Engineering Machinery Association statistics, in December 2017, various types of machine sales of 14 thousand units, an increase of 102.6%; 2017 year sales rose 99.5% 140 thousand and 300 machines. There were 130 thousand and 600 sales in the mainland market, up 107.5% from the same year, and 9 thousand and 700 in export sales, up 32% from the same year. Last year, the rapid growth of the domestic economy and an excavator sales, overall pick, tighter environmental policy, stock clearing after the update demand, mining investment, infrastructure construction and urban construction and other factors.

The trough to achieve productivity, improve industry concentration pulp with domestic enterprises improve the research and development capabilities, product performance and quality improvement of supporting industries and constantly improve the product market share has increased from 25% in 2008 to nearly three years of relatively stable 50%. Since 2012, a significant decline in market demand in the process of enterprise overall completion of the production capacity, concentration steadily; the second half of 2016 the industry rebound, leading enterprises with technical superiority and excellent supply chain system, and rapid response capacity of the market and perfect sales service network quickly occupied the market, market concentration significantly increased. 2012-2015 machines CR8 stable at around 65%; and in 2017 October before the cumulative sales, CR8 has increased to 76%.

High base engineering machinery this year or will maintain a certain growth rate: according to the Engineering Machinery Association, the excavator sales data prior to 2017 November, the western region sales of 45 thousand and 400 units, significantly ahead of the East and the middle of 3.60 and 36 thousand and 400. The total volume of large, medium and small digs in the mainland market was 19 thousand and 200, 32 thousand and 79 thousand and 300, respectively, and the growth rate was 154.8%, 138.2% and 89.2% respectively. The demand for big dig is mainly concentrated in mineral rich areas such as Inner Mongolia and southwest China, and small and medium-sized excavating is mainly concentrated in areas with high level of urbanization and strong infrastructure in East and southwest China. We judge that the political cycle will remain positive influence this year, city, traffic, construction of new rural areas will continue to maintain a rapid growth; coal, iron ore, cement prices remain relatively high in recent years, the rate of returning to work more sustainable; and according to the energy-saving, two hand digging machine this year sales rose more than 150%, the stock gradually clearing will continue to stimulate new demand for the release of. Considering the high base in 2017 140 thousand sales, is expected this year will achieve excavator sales of about 170 thousand units, an increase of about 20%.

In 2017, the balance sheet repair and 2018 profit statement elasticity: according to the Engineering Machinery Association, the sales volume of loaders, bulldozers and graders increased by about 40% in the first eight months of last year, and the annual growth rate of truck cranes was over 100%. We believe that the construction machinery industry has experienced 2012-2015 years of continuous trough, 2016-2017 annual sales rebound, major companies in the industry balance sheets have continued to repair and maintain the high level of sales to improve; and to achieve a certain foundation in the pre growth this year, we think there is a certain profit elasticity. We mainly recommend: Cranes tucking machine, faucet Sany, core components enterprise constant force hydraulic and Addie precision and so on.

Risk warning: the macroeconomic downturn has led to the decline in demand for construction machinery. The sales growth rate is higher than expected under the high base number, and the bargaining power of industry competition has weakened and the gross margin level has been reduced.