In December, the Shen Wan mechanical equipment index rose 1.7%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 3.31%, the Shanghai composite value rose 2.25%, and the mechanical equipment index rose in the thirteenth place of the 28 industry in the same period. From the mechanical industry, (+9.36%) due to the continued strong sales continued to rise, rail transportation sector due to total iron meeting announced in 2017 the traffic mileage exceeded expectations and gains, lithium battery equipment industry is expected in 2018 because of subsidies for new energy vehicles in place and cancel the substantial adjustment.
In December, the 28 division of mechanical plate was obvious, and the weight shares rose and the small stock fell. The index rose and the median of valuations fell. From the median of valuation level, the median value of mechanical plate is 53.72 times (54.54 times that of last month), the valuation level is at the top 35.88% historical score, and the median of rolling history is 46.13 times (47.45 times last month). In December 28 continue to maintain machinery sector market differentiation, industry heavyweights, with the growth of the performance of blue chips rose, but most of there is no improvement in performance of small cap stocks valuations continue to decline, shrinking turnover, so the index rose, the median decline of valuation. In line with our previous judgement of the valuation level of the machinery sector, the valuation level of the machinery sector is still downward adjustment, and the driving force of the valuation level tends to be reasonable. It is suggested that the top-quality standard should be chosen from the bottom to the top, and we should pay attention to the high growth in the industry and the leading standard of the industry boom.
The sales of excavators remain high, and the prosperity is expected to spread. In December, the sales volume of excavators was 14005 (+102.6%), which was a new high in December since 2004. 2017 of the annual total sales (including exports) 140303 units, an increase of 99.5%; the domestic market is small, the big dig, dig dug in annual sales were 79307, 32005, 19247, year-on-year growth rate of 89%/138%/155% growth has slowed a little digging, digging, digging, Yu Jijian benefit tourism resources investment will continue to boom. To maintain a high growth rate. The excavator market continued to stay high, with its sales base in January 2017 low and expected to grow by more than 120% in January 2018.
From the demand side, we expect that the recovery of the industry will last for 2-3 years, and the long-term and stable recovery power is mainly derived from the gradual release of the updated demand. Although the real estate, infrastructure investment growth will not continue rapid growth, but the huge stock investment still means a huge equipment demand, since the last equipment demand has peaked in the past 6-7 years, close to the service life of the equipment, update the demand will lead the development of the next few years. Overseas economic recovery, rising demand in Europe and North America, The Belt and Road bring incremental new orders, is expected to continue to contribute to sales growth for the industry. From the supply side, the construction machinery market has been adjusted for several years, and the main engine factory has been expanding the market share against the trend. 31, Xugong market share has been going up all the way. The promotion logic of the market share will lead the future competition of the industry, and the high growth of the industry is expected to continue to exceed expectation under the factors of renewing demand, replenishment stock and environmental protection policy. We recommend focusing on leading enterprises: Sany (full range of products with obvious competitive advantages, the industry's share of rising exports than expected), Xugong (mechanical engineering sector leader, the performance of uncertainty is high), Hengli engineering machinery hydraulic components (hydraulic engineering machinery sales leader, benefiting from the rebound, three quarterly gross margin greatly enhance performance far exceeding market expectations). After several years of deep adjustment in the engineering industry, the concentration of the industry has been obviously improved, and the competition pattern of the industry is more conducive to the leading companies of the industry.
The working conference of the Railway General Company was held in Beijing in January 2, 2018. The meeting focused on that, in 2017 China's new railway production line 3038 kilometers, 2100 kilometers beyond the early planning, "four horizontal" high-speed rail network is completed ahead of schedule operations. The total rail plan in 2018 fixed 732 billion yuan in Railway Assets and 4000 kilometers in the new operation lines, including 3500 kilometers of high-speed railways. According to our statistics, the mileage of high-speed railways in 2017 is about 1700 kilometers. According to this plan, the mileage of traffic will double in 2018.
Rail plate view: 1), to accelerate the domestic EMU EMU tender bidding performance in 2018 will gradually return to normal, because the bidding returns to normal growth is better; 2), intercity rail, subway: speeding up the urban rail traffic mileage increases gradually, equipment demand will gradually release, rail line construction period is 4-6 years. At the eve of the outbreak of 3 orders;), "The Belt and Road" bring new market: China high-speed railway is China's high-end manufacturing China high-speed rail name card, advanced technology, operating experience, cost-effective, the sea formed a good demonstration effect. It is recommended to focus on Chinese Zhongche (global leading rail transportation equipment), YG appliances, Connie Electromechanical, China Iron company.
Risk hints: macro economic downturn, raw material price fluctuations affect the profitability of the middle reaches of the market, the downstream market demand is less than expected.
