From January to February, the national economy maintained a recovery growth
From January to February, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the results of the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development in all regions and departments continued to show results, industry and exports grew rapidly, investment and consumption recovered steadily, employment and prices Overall stability, basic people’s livelihood protection is strong, and the national economy continues to recover steadily. From the year-on-year data, due to factors such as the low base in the same period in 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of main indicators is relatively high. After deducting the base effect, the growth of main indicators is stable, and the macro indicators are in a reasonable range.
1. The growth of industrial production is accelerating, and the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry are growing well
From January to February, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 35.1% year-on-year and 16.9% from January-February 2019. The two-year average growth rate was 8.1%, which was a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. In terms of economic types, the value added of state-owned holding companies increased by 23.0% year-on-year; joint-stock companies increased by 34.2%, foreign, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested companies increased by 41.4%; private companies increased by 43.8%. Divided into three categories, the value added of the mining industry increased by 17.5% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 4.8% in two years; manufacturing industry increased by 39.5%, with an average growth rate of 8.4% in two years; electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries increased by 19.8%. An average increase of 5.5% over the two years.
The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 59.9% and 49.2% year-on-year respectively, and the two-year average growth rate was 10.2% and 13.0% respectively. In terms of product output, the growth rates of new energy vehicles, trucks, industrial robots, excavating and shoveling transportation machinery, and microcomputer equipment all exceeded 100% year-on-year, and the average growth rate for the two years exceeded 10%. From a month-on-month perspective, the added value of industries above designated size nationwide in February increased by 0.69% over the previous month. In February, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 50.6%, which was higher than the threshold for 12 consecutive months; the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities rose to 59.2%, 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month.
2. The service industry is gradually recovering, and the business activity index of the service industry is in the expansion range
From January to February, the national service industry production index increased by 31.1% year-on-year, 14.1% over the first two months of 2019, and an average growth rate of 6.8% over the two years. From the perspective of major industries, the real estate industry, information transmission, software and information technology service industries increased by 51.4% and 26.1% respectively year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 11.8% and 14.4% respectively. In February, the service industry business activity index was 50.8%, which was above the threshold for 12 consecutive months. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity indexes of retail, catering, entertainment and other industries closely related to household consumption are all in the expansion range and higher than last month. In terms of market expectations, the service industry business activity expectations index was 63.2%, 7.9 percentage points higher than last month.
3. Market sales have maintained growth, and sales of upgraded consumer goods have grown rapidly
From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 6973.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%, an increase of 6.4% over the first two months of 2019, and an average increase of 3.2% over the two years. According to the location of the business unit, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas was 6,055.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, an average increase of 3.4% in two years; the retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas was 918.5 billion yuan, an increase of 26.7%, and an average increase of 1.3% in two years. Classified by consumption type, catering revenue was 708.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.9%, and an average decline of 2.0% in two years; retail sales of goods were 625.1 billion yuan, an increase of 30.7%, and an average increase of 3.8% in two years. The sales of most products are growing well, and the sales of consumer upgrade products are growing rapidly. From January to February, among the retail sales of units above designated size, 18 commodity categories all grew at a rate of over 10% year-on-year; the year-on-year growth rates of communications equipment and sports and entertainment products were 53.1% and 45.6%, respectively, representing an average growth rate of two years. Both are 18.2%. Online retail continues to increase. From January to February, the national online retail sales reached 1,758.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 1441.2 billion yuan, an increase of 30.6%, accounting for 20.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. From a month-on-month perspective, the total retail sales of consumer goods in February increased by 0.56% over the previous month.
4. Investment in fixed assets has grown steadily, and investment in high-tech industries and social fields has grown rapidly
From January to February, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 4.523.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.0% and an increase of 3.5% over the first two months of 2019. The two-year average growth rate was 1.7%. In terms of different sectors, infrastructure investment increased by 36.6% year-on-year, with a two-year average decrease of 1.6%; manufacturing investment increased by 37.3%, with an average two-year decrease of 3.4%; real estate development investment increased by 38.3%, with an average two-year increase of 7.6%. The sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 173.63 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 104.9%, an average increase of 11.0% in two years; the sales of commercial housing was 1,915.1 billion yuan, an increase of 133.4%, an average increase of 22.3% in two years.
In terms of industries, investment in the primary industry increased by 61.3% year-on-year, with an average increase of 15.8% in two years; investment in the secondary industry increased by 34.1%, with an average decrease of 1.8% in two years; investment in the tertiary industry increased by 34.6%, an average increase of 2.8% in two years. Private investment increased by 36.4%, an average increase of 1.4% in two years. Investment in high-tech industries increased by 50.1% year-on-year; among them, investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries increased by 50.3% and 49.8% respectively. In the high-tech manufacturing industry, the investment in the computer and office equipment manufacturing, medical equipment and instrumentation manufacturing industries increased by 99.5% and 66.6% respectively; in the high-tech service industry, the investment in the e-commerce service industry and the R&D and design service industry increased by 88.4% respectively , 85.3%. Investment in the social sector increased by 48.0% year-on-year, of which investment in health and education increased by 63.0% and 53.0% respectively. From a month-on-month perspective, fixed asset investment in February increased by 2.43% over the previous month.
5. Goods imports and exports have increased significantly, and the trade structure has continued to improve
From January to February, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 5441.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%. Among them, exports were 3.0588 billion yuan, an increase of 50.1%; imports were 2383.0 billion yuan, an increase of 14.5%. The import and export balance, the trade surplus was 675.9 billion yuan. The trade structure has improved. From January to February, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 54.1% year-on-year, accounting for 60.3% of total exports. General trade imports and exports accounted for 61.6% of total imports and exports, an increase of 1 percentage point over the same period last year. The import and export of private enterprises accounted for 47.2% of the total import and export, an increase of 5.5% over the same period last year.
6. The urban surveyed unemployment rate dropped year-on-year, and the employment situation was generally stable
From January to February, 1.48 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country. In January, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.4%. In February, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year. The unemployment rate of the local household registration population survey was 5.7%, and the unemployment rate of the foreign household registration population survey was 5.2%. The unemployment rates of the population aged 16-24 and population aged 25-59 were 13.1% and 5.0% respectively. The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 large cities and towns was 5.5%. The average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises across the country is 46.3 hours.
7. Consumer prices fell year-on-year, while factory prices for industrial producers rose year-on-year
From January to February, the national consumer prices fell by 0.3% year-on-year. In terms of categories, food, tobacco and alcohol prices rose by 0.9% year-on-year, clothing fell by 0.3%, housing fell by 0.3%, prices of daily necessities and services fell by 0.1%, transportation and communications fell by 3.3%, education, culture and entertainment rose by 0.3%, and health care rose by 0.4%. , Other supplies and services fell by 0.9%. In food, tobacco and alcohol prices, pork fell by 9.6%, grain rose by 1.5%, fresh fruits rose by 2.2%, and fresh vegetables rose by 6.9%. On a monthly basis, national consumer prices in January and February fell by 0.3% and 0.2% year-on-year, and rose by 1.0% and 0.6% month-on-month.
From January to February, the factory prices of industrial producers nationwide rose by 1.0% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, the national factory prices for industrial producers in January and February rose by 0.3% and 1.7% year-on-year, respectively, and by 1.0% and 0.8% month-on-month. From January to February, the purchasing prices of industrial producers nationwide increased by 1.6% year-on-year.
In general, economic operations maintained a recovery growth in January and February, and positive factors continued to increase. At the same time, we must also note that the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still spreading globally, the world economic situation is complex and severe; the imbalance in the domestic recovery process is still prominent, and the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid. In the next stage, we must adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, follow the overall deployment of the "Government Work Report", adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and do a solid job of the "six stability." Work, fully implement the "six guarantees" tasks, take more effective measures to promote the implementation of various tasks, further consolidate the foundation for stable economic recovery, strive to maintain economic operations within a reasonable range, and ensure that the "14th Five-Year Plan" has a good start and a good start.
