"Cycle Trap" seems to be "Damase's Sword" hanging on the head of our construction machinery industry. Since the second half of 2016, my country's construction machinery industry enters a high-speed growth period, and if calculated according to the life cycle cycle according to the industry, it is currently about to face adjustment windows. According to data from China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in June 2021, the domestic sales of 26 host manufacturing companies fell by 21.9% year-on-year. In addition to high-altitude machinery, the sales volume of other products in construction machinery has decline in the second quarter. This can't help but worry that it will reproduce the history of five years ago? Can my country's engineering machinery leaders spend cycle?
Period Law: Long-term maintenance of stable rise in deep adjustment or difficult reproduction
In our country, construction machinery is a industry that is bound to be bound to infrastructure construction. It is also because of the fact that the industry is hit "periodic".
Before 2012, it benefited from the industrial policy and market environment. The rapid growth of my country's construction machinery industry, as an example of Zhonglian Branch, the company's revenue increased from 245 million yuan in 2000 to 48071 billion yuan in 2012, year composite growth rate More than 55%.
From 2012 to 2016, domestic infrastructure construction and real estate investment growth rate, the construction machinery industry has serious overcapacity, and falls into the bottom of the valley in 2015, the number of excavators in the country is only 56,000, down 68% from 2011 , Large area loss.
Since 2016, under the influence of infrastructure investment acceleration, stock equipment update, and machine agent trend accelerated, the engineering machinery industry has continued to rise. In the past four years, Zilian, Three, Xugong and Liugong four leading enterprises The income composite growth rate is 41%, 38%, 36%, and 27%, respectively, and the company's operating performance has been a high history.
CITIC Jianota Securities believes that the market is generally believed that construction machinery is a strong cycle stock. Its inertial thinking is from the 2012-2015 industry cycle, reviewing the two core reasons of this round of trough: First, macro policy steering The industry directly faces the pressure brought by the regulation; the second is the zero first payment and low-payment policy launched by the host factory, and a large number of products flowing to poor qualifications. This judges that there is no possibilities in the previous industry trough.
"The engineering machinery industry is related to the high level of macroeconomics, from the national 'two new' development prospects and the investment in the 14th Five-Year Plan, the macro economy is rising straight, I think the fluctuations of construction machinery are also shaking around the main line of the country. As for the fluctuation amplitude, it is that the enterprise itself can achieve high quality and robust growth. "Zhan Chun, chairman of Zoomlion, said.
Triangan Heavy Work President said in an interview with China Securities report that the construction machinery industry will not experience the downtime as before, the country's macroeconomic policy is stable, and the market will have some fluctuations, but not There will be a big fell as before; on the other hand, the machine replaces the artificial process has just begun, and the excavator is used as a tool, and there is a large market space.
"This periodic change is inevitable. For the entire industry, the periodic change is closely related to the changes in the economic cycle." He Qinghua, Chairman of the Shanhe Intelligent Chairman, said, my country's excavators during 2016 Sales are less than 50,000 units by more than 10,000 units, and now there are more than 30,000 units, but in contrast the European engineering machinery market, although they also have a large fluctuation, the volatility is far less than China.
In response to the decline in recent sales growth, there is also an analysis that this is not enough to prove the arrival of the new wave adjustment cycle. On the one hand, due to the influence of the epidemic, the overall start time of 2020, causing equipment sales demand in late centralized release, the year-on-year growth rate of the second quarter of 2021 was dragged down by the base; on the other hand, the price of steel raw materials in the first half of this year Operation, urging many major prices during the year, thereby generating a certain impact on sales.
Demand: Overseas Market is still available in China
Carefully observe changes in the data of my country's construction machinery industry in recent years, a major figure is that overseas markets are increasingly become new blue sea, and the new development patterns of domestic and international dual cycles are gradually formed.
Xinhua Finance Data shows that in the first half of 2021, my country's construction machinery achieved a trade surplus of 13.025 billion US dollars, which is 9.11 times in the last round of boom in 2011. In 2020, my country's excavator exports reached 347 million units, which was 4.65 times in 2013, while in the same period of domestic sales increased by 2.79 times, export growth rate was significantly faster than domestic sales.
At present, the overseas business of China Union, Sanyi and Xugong is 5.89%, 14.20% and 8.26% respectively, compared to 60% of Japan, more than 60% of Caterpillar, more than 60% of the overseas business, domestic enterprises still have more Large improvement space, overseas business, or will become the company's "flat" cycle.
"At present, the products of Zoomlion have covered more than 100 countries and regions, with more than 50 resident institutions worldwide, and actively in the national layout along the 'and all the way. In 2015, Zoomlion was stationed in Zhongbai Industrial Park. After the construction of the Zoomlion, the Russian base, which has been officially operated. "Li Pin, deputy general manager of the Executive Deputy General Executive Executive Overseas Company, China, said the company is actively adjusting the optimization of the global industrial layout and resource allocation, and building new growth of overseas business .
Looking back to the domestic, the construction machinery market is still very potential. In 2019, China's excavator was 1526,000 units, approximately 2.7 times the United States, 2.3 times Japan. CICC believes that although from absolute amounts, China's excavator has significantly higher than US and Japan. However, from the relative insurance of the per capita, unit land area, and the total output value of the unit construction industry, my country's engineering machinery is still lower: China's total excavator is 1,090 per million people in 2019, far below Japan and 5,154 and 1,707 in the United States.
In the long run, with the aging of my country's population aging, the machine agent will become a general trend. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, the number of employment in my country's construction industry has reached 2.2.7 million, and the year-on-year decreased year-on-year, and its 29.22 million in 2013 has continued to decline. Yuan, an increase of 8% year-on-year, continued to rise for many years. Industry insiders expect that with the shortage of labor and the rise in human cost, a large number of engineering machinery needs will be brought.
In short, in the second quarter meeting, the Central Political Bureau deleted the "smaller window period" proposed in the first quarter meeting in the current economic situation, indicating that my country's economic growth is facing uncertainty and new fiscal policies. The expression "promotes the formation of physical workload next year". This is interpreted by the market as a good future, especially the expectation of the construction machinery industry. Affected by this, after opening on August 2, the stock price continued for more than a monthly weakened big foundation, and the three heavy workers, the Zoomlion has gained a daily limit.
In addition, the rapid development of assembled buildings brings new dividends to the industry. According to the forecast of Dafeng equipment, it is expected that by 2024, the penetration rate of assembled buildings can reach 32.4%, compared to 18.4% in 2019, close to the double.
"Zoomlion has developed into the world's largest tower machine manufacturer, and the city share will maintain the world's first." Tang Shaofang, Vice President of Zoomlion, said that assembled buildings involved in hoisting large-scale building structures, which will bring the industry To demand, especially the need to increase the needs of large quotes of large tonnage tower machines.
Supply: Diversified layout intelligent upgrade digital transformation
From a corporate level, diversified layout, intelligent transformation, and digital upgrade are universal practices in the industry's leading enterprise resistance cycle fluctuations.
From 2001, the mountain river intelligence cut into the aviation field, in the airplane rental, air express delivery, drone, light sports aircraft, etc., developed a number of filling domestic gaps, which fills the domestic blanks of domestic blanks. Products; 2011, Zoomlion took the lead in layout in the industry, now, agricultural machinery and smart agricultural sectors have become one of the three major business segments of the company. In 2020, the income exceeded 2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 67% year-on-year.
"In addition to agricultural machinery and smart agricultural sectors, high-altitude operation machinery is now in a rapid development period in the domestic market. Based on the technology, management and resource advantages of Zoomlion, the company's high-altitude mechanical sectors are rapidly developed." SECKELY Yang Zhi said that in addition to mechanical sections represented by agricultural machinery, high machines, excavators, new material sections represented by special dry mixing mortar are also expected to expand new profitable space to Zhonglian.
Perhaps the pain of the industry's low valley, these construction machinery faucet companies will put robbery after returning to high profits. It is understood that the current Lessian and Third 1.1nd leaders have not passed the overdraft demand by reducing the credit threshold, and the overall business quality is significantly better than before.
Today, intelligent, digitized, networked, lightweight, empowerment, mechanics, continuous expansion of applications. In the three heavy industrial production workshops in the Hong Kong, Hong Kong, the Shanghai Free Trade Test Zone, there is an excavator offline for each production line; in Changsha High-tech Zone, a total area of more than 10,000 acres of Zhonglian Wisdom Industry City In the stage of "starting on the construction of the construction", more than 7 global leading lighthouse plants, more than 300 intelligent production lines, the whole field covers 5G, the first industry 20 "black light production line", ultimately realize product qualification rate 100%, the production cycle is shortened, one excavator is off every 6 minutes; more than 450,000 construction machinery and equipment across the country are connected to the China Union, and the data is transmitted through the data. Online understanding of real-time status and operating rates of each device, becoming a "barometer" reflecting national economic operation.
In recent years, domestic construction machinery's domestic brand market share has increased, with the largest excavator with the largest sales volume, and the domestic brand market share has increased from 16% of 2007 to the current 69%. China Construction Machinery has experienced cycle baptism, and the continuous upgrade of products and services is undergoing long-term sustainable development. Many researchers judged that under the steady progress of the work, the periodicization of my country's construction machinery industry will become a long-term trend. The Matthew effect of the industry will be more obvious.
