In October 2021, only 21700 tractors will be sold in the tractor market. If the tractor market in October this year can maintain the level of September (22400), the first "victory" of this year will be in October.
However, there is no "if" in reality, which is often more cruel than "if".
The sales of 20,500 vehicles in October decreased by 8% month on month and 6% year on year
According to the latest information, according to the data of China Automobile Association (the number of invoices issued by enterprises, the number of actual sales at non terminals, the same below), in October 2022, China's heavy truck market sold 48200 units, down 7% month on month and 10% year on year. Among them, as the most concerned segment of the heavy truck market, the tractor market also handed over the report card of month on month and year on year drop in October: sales of 20500 units, a month on month drop of 8%, and a year on year drop of 6%. Like the heavy truck market, the year-on-year drop in the tractor market was also narrowed compared with that in September (the tractor market fell by 11% year on year in September). It is worth mentioning that in the first half of this year, the tractor market dropped by more than 60% in five months, with an average decline of 67%; After entering the second half of the year, although the tractor market still failed to gain growth, the average decline in the four months from July to October was only 14%, which is much better than that in the first half of the year. Among them, the year-on-year decline in August and October was only single digits, and the monthly sales volume was not much different from that in the same period last year. As of October 2022, the tractor market has declined for 19 consecutive months.
Looking at the sales volume and growth trend chart of the tractor market in October of the last five years, we can see that the tractor market has grown in 2019 and 2020 in October of the last five years. The 71100 units in October 2020 is the peak sales volume of the tractor market in October of the last five years, and it is the only time that the tractor market has exceeded 50000 units in October in the last five years; In October 2021, the tractor market will drop by nearly 70% in the fourth month after the "National Six Year Plan", to the level of 20000. The sales volume of 20500 units in the tractor market in October this year is at the lowest level in the past five years, which is less than 30% of the five-year high in October 2020. Compared with October 2018 and October 2019, it is also much worse, and about 1200 units less than that in October last year.
After October, the cumulative sales volume of tractor market this year was less than 260000, only 258300, down 59% from 633100 in the same period of last year, with a net decrease of 375000, which is only 40% of the sales volume from January to October last year. According to the analysis of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, the heavy truck market has been depressed for a long time due to the impact of economic slowdown, low road freight rates, reduced supply of goods, and the switch between six countries. Although the market demand is recovering slowly, it is quite limited; Since the second half of the year, the impact of epidemic factors on the market has improved significantly compared with that in the second quarter, but the demand has not been awesome, and the market recovery is far from expected. It can be seen from the above figure that the cumulative sales decline of the tractor market this year has been expanding all the way since February, and has dropped 68% since May. This trend has finally "stopped" in June. The cumulative sales decline in the last five months has narrowed month by month. The cumulative sales decline of the tractor market from January to October has narrowed by 9 percentage points compared with January to May, which is very difficult for the tractor market to decline continuously.
Four enterprises grew year-on-year Jiefang/Fukuda led Dongfeng to welcome the "first win"
It can be seen from the above table that the tractor market in October decreased by 6% year on year, 5 percentage points narrower than that in the previous month (the tractor market in September decreased by 11% year on year), and about 1200 fewer tractors were sold than that in the same period last year. In terms of the top ten enterprises in October, the number of enterprises that achieved growth was the same as that in September. Jiefang, Shaanxi Automobile, Foton and Dongfeng achieved growth in October, with year-on-year growth of 61%, 12%, 95% and 18% respectively. Among them, Foton has achieved growth for four consecutive months, Jiefang has achieved growth for three consecutive months, and Dongfeng has reaped its first growth this year; Among the enterprises that declined, there were still 5 enterprises with double-digit decline. The sales volume of the enterprises with the most serious decline in October fell by 59% year on year. Beiben outperformed the tractor market by a small decline of 3%.
Like the heavy truck market, the tractor market also fell in October, down 8% month on month. In terms of mainstream enterprises, the performance of most enterprises in October was not as good as that in September. Eight of the top ten enterprises in terms of sales volume fell month on month, and many enterprises saw double-digit month on month declines; Jiefang and Hanma Technology achieved month on month growth, and their sales in October increased by 8% and 39% respectively. It is worth mentioning that Jiefang is still the only enterprise in the tractor market that achieved a month on month and year on year growth in October.
In October, no enterprise in the tractor market continued to sell more than 10000 vehicles, and no enterprise in the tractor market has sold more than 10000 vehicles for nine consecutive months. In fact, let alone more than 10000 vehicles, no enterprise has sold more than 5000 vehicles in the tractor market for four consecutive months. In October, the total share of the top ten enterprises in tractor sales reached 98.63%, and the share of the top ten enterprises was less than 1.5%. In October, the total share of the top five enterprises in the tractor market reached 90.75%, and the total share of the top five enterprises in the industry continued to exceed 85%, which was still expanded compared with last month (88.83%).
From the perspective of cumulative sales, the tractor market sold 258300 units from January to October this year, a year-on-year decrease of 59%, 2 percentage points narrower than the previous September (- 61%), about 375000 units lower than the same period last year, about 40.8% of the cumulative sales in the same period last year. In terms of the top ten enterprises in terms of cumulative sales (the top ten enterprises in October are slightly different from the top ten enterprises in January October), all of the ten enterprises are in the decline range, and the cumulative decline has reached double digits. The decline of enterprises such as Heavy Truck, Shaanxi Automobile, Foton, Dayun, Beiben, Xugong, and Hanma Technology is lower than 59% of the industry as a whole, outperforming the market "market", including Dayun, Beiben The cumulative sales of Hanma Technology and XCMG decreased by 39%, 39%, 34% and 36% respectively from January to October this year, making them the only four enterprises among the top ten in terms of cumulative sales with a cumulative decline of less than 40%.
From the perspective of cumulative share, the total share of the top ten enterprises in the cumulative sales volume reached 98.84%, and the total share of the top five enterprises in the sales volume reached 88.15%. The total share of the industry's top 5 tractor market from January to October this year was close to 90%. Among them, the share of Jiefang and Heavy Truck both exceeded 20%, reaching 21.75% and 21.68% respectively, and the cumulative share gap was only 0.07%; Shaanxi Automobile, Foton and Dongfeng shared 17.17%, 14.45% and 13.09% of the tractor market respectively in the first 10 months of this year. The gap between neighboring enterprises has not been widened too much, and the final seating arrangement of the top five in the industry is still full of suspense.
From January to October this year, the cumulative share of enterprises in the tractor market, such as Heavy Truck, Foton, Dayun, Shaanxi Automobile, Xugong, Beiben, and Hanma Technology, increased by 4.1 percentage points over the same period last year; The cumulative share of Foton tractor from January to October this year also increased by 2.87% compared with the same period last year; This year, Dayun Heavy Truck has been in the top six of the monthly list in the tractor market for 10 consecutive months. Its "play" is very stable, and its cumulative share has increased by 1.86% over the same period last year. In addition, the cumulative shares of Shaanxi Automobile, XCMG, Beiben and Hanma Technologies from January to October this year increased by 1.75%, 0.48%, 0.47% and 0.38% respectively compared with the same period last year.
From the perspective of the industry pattern, the top ten members of the tractor market in October this year were different from those in September, and their rankings also changed: Jiefang returned to the top of the monthly sales list with a monthly share of 22.99% in October; Hanma Technology returned to the top ten in October, ranking eighth in the monthly sales list.
Like the heavy truck market, the tractor market in October did not enjoy the long-awaited growth when the sales volume was at a low level in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor market was only 25,800 units, which is slightly better than the last few months of last year (from August to December 2021, the average monthly sales volume of tractors was only 22,300 units), but it is still at a very low level. In November 2021, the sales volume of the tractor market is still not high, only 22800, which is also a "soft persimmon" in terms of figures. However, considering the current weak demand of the tractor market, it is still difficult to achieve growth.
Is it possible for the tractor market to harvest and grow in the last two months of 2022?
