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Is the worst moment of the heavy truck market over? How to study and judge the future trend of Jiefang/Heavy Truck/Weichai

Nov 17, 2022

Recently, after each listed car company disclosed its third quarter report, the three listed companies in the commercial vehicle industry, FAW Jiefang, CNHTC Jinan Truck and Weichai Power, which have received much attention, communicated with investors about the operation in the first three quarters and the development of the following industry by holding online telephone calls or analyst meetings.

So, in the first three quarters of 2022, what are the highlights of the operating performance of Jiefang, Sinotruk and Weichai? What are their views on the development trend of the industry and how will they contribute?

Focus on management and promote transformation! The inventory of heavy truck industry is greatly reduced

The heavy truck market has started to recover since 2016. After five years of rapid growth, the market trend this year is unusually low. In the first three quarters, the accumulated sales volume of China's heavy truck industry was only 523000, down 58% year on year, and the sales volume fell back to five years ago. With the acceleration of foreign car enterprises in the layout of the domestic market and the increase of consumers' wait-and-see mood, domestic OEMs are facing considerable market pressure this year.

Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement and strategic transformation are important means for enterprises to enhance their competitiveness. It is understood that as a leading enterprise in the heavy truck industry, FAW Jiefang adjusted its overall strategy in a timely manner in response to the unfavorable industry situation, which is summarized in six words as "focusing on management and promoting transformation". Among them, the "focus on management" focuses on three aspects. First, in the aspect of market leadership, seize opportunities, seize terminals, reduce inventory, adjust structure, strengthen collaboration, and prevent risks to ensure the achievement of annual sales; The second is to help reduce costs and expenses through cost pressure drop and expense pressure drop; Third, increase the development of marketing channels and the improvement of overseas service capabilities, build an overseas marketing system, and accelerate the breakthrough of overseas marketing capabilities. "Promoting transformation" is to focus on new energy, intelligent driving, Internet of Vehicles and the post market, further improve the layout, enhance profitability, and make full preparations for the coming of new trends.

From the perspective of this year's operation, the efforts made in the first three quarters of liberation were very effective, which not only achieved a significant decline in inventory, but also significantly increased the market share of AAK (terminal) compared with the same period last year, forming an absolute leader in the industry. According to industry data, the terminal market share of Jiefang rose to 26.2% from January to September against the trend, ranking first in the heavy truck industry. In terms of cost reduction, in addition to R&D expenses, we freed up the space for cost reduction and reduced unnecessary expenses. In the first three quarters, sales expenses and administrative expenses decreased by 32.53% year on year, with significant effect. Facing the future, Jiefang is full of confidence in the company's new products, new technologies and creating value for customers, and will continue to increase investment in research and development and products to further enhance the competitiveness of the company's products.

Although the introduction of Sinotruk at its exchange meeting was not as detailed as that of Jiefang, we can also get some important information from it. For example, in terms of cost reduction, Heavy Truck said that in recent years, it has been continuously and effectively promoting cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, which are well reflected in quarterly reports; As for the inventory, according to the current situation of the heavy truck industry, the inventory of the heavy truck industry is basically based on the national six. Although the industry inventory is at a high level compared with the current monthly sales, compared with the same period last year, the overall inventory of the industry has been significantly reduced.

Export sales increased significantly! Watch out for new energy! How will Jiefang, Sinotruk and Weichai make efforts?

In the sluggish market environment, there are also some highlights. In this year's heavy truck market, although the domestic demand is weak, the overseas sales volume has been very good. The contribution of export sales to the total sales volume of heavy trucks has increased significantly, and at the same time, it has begun to affect the heavy truck market pattern.

Jiefang, Sinotruk and Weichai all mentioned the growth of overseas sales at their respective exchange meetings. Jiefang said that this year's overseas demand was relatively strong, and the total export volume of Jiefang was not high in the past, but this year's overseas export increased significantly; At present, the export of heavy trucks is more traditional fuel vehicles. For the new energy field, Jiefang is also accelerating to make some arrangements and deployment.

Heavy truck said that since 2022, the global economic growth has further slowed down due to repeated epidemics, high inflation and other factors, but the overall recovery trend has remained. The overall demand of the heavy truck market is relatively stable. Compared with European and American heavy truck brands, the Chinese brand supply chain has recovered earlier, and the product supply capacity has rapidly met the market demand, thus promoting the development of the heavy truck export market. Xiao Bian learned that from January to October this year, the export volume of heavy trucks reached 76000, a year-on-year increase of 54%, of which the export volume in October achieved a breakthrough of 10000.

Weichai Power said that in the first three quarters of this year, the export sales of Weichai engines increased by more than 40% year on year, and the export sales of heavy truck vehicles increased by 77% year on year; Among them, in the third quarter, the export sales of Weichai engines and heavy trucks increased by 60% and 125% year on year respectively, and the export contribution gradually expanded. In the field of large bore engines, Weichai's overseas market sales accounted for about 47% in the first three quarters and about 50% in the third quarter, which is expected to continue to maintain a good growth momentum.

In view of the broad opportunities in the overseas market of heavy trucks, both Jiefang and Sinotruk said they would make further efforts. Among them, Jiefang revealed that it was making some changes to support overseas exports. First of all, the organizational structure will be further strengthened, and a special overseas project business sector will be established to enable more professionals to play their part; Secondly, actively consider products, services, channels, base layout and other aspects, including product diversification, in-depth planning of services, establishment of factories, establishment of offices, etc. It is reported that there will be corresponding plans for the deployment of the liberation of overseas bases.

HTC said that it is a good time to vigorously develop the international market, and it will develop new market segments on the basis of maintaining its traditional advantages. As the main dealer facing overseas of the company, Sinotruk International has a relatively complete overseas marketing network system. On this basis, Sinotruk will continue to optimize its product structure, upgrade its product performance, and improve the adaptability of its products to the international market to help Sinotruk International achieve greater breakthroughs.

Of course, among the opportunities of market segmentation, new energy is also an aspect that cannot be ignored. Jiefang said that it will vigorously develop the new energy commercial vehicle market, and its new energy products of various technical routes have covered various sub segments to meet the diversified market demand. In terms of core power assembly, Jiefang will make a comprehensive layout through self research and self production, equity investment, strategic cooperation, joint development and other ways to ensure its technological advantages in the field of new energy and form its own core competitiveness. In addition, Jiefang will also launch an exclusive platform to make innovations and breakthroughs in low wind resistance smart living cabin, skateboard chassis, high-level smart driving and other aspects, truly build a new generation of new energy vehicles that are high-end in China and reflect advanced technology, and continue to build a brand enterprise of "China's first world class" with the help of the new track.

Weichai said that at present, the sales growth of new energy commercial vehicles is good, but the overall penetration rate is low. Weichai has deployed in a variety of technical routes, such as pure electric, hybrid and fuel cell. Its products are fully prepared and will seize the development opportunities in all markets.

Forecast: The worst moment of the heavy truck market has passed, and next year will be better than this year?

Now, 2022 has come to an end. What is the future development trend of the heavy truck market?

Liberation related leaders predicted that "next year will be better than this year"! In the first 10 months of this year, the sales volume of heavy truck market dropped precipitously due to the changes brought about by the epidemic, geopolitical turbulence and some overdrafts in the industry last year and the year before last, resulting in many adverse factors concentrated in this year. However, the truck industry has been developing periodically, and the future trend of the industry is positive. At the same time, Jiefang is confident in China's economy, the country's emphasis on the automobile industry, and a series of government policies.

Heavy truck also showed an optimistic attitude towards the future development trend of the heavy truck market. Although the current market is sluggish, the customer replacement demand is low in stages, and the road freight and engineering vehicle markets have been greatly impacted, the foundation supporting the development of heavy trucks has not changed much overall. The worst moment of the current market has passed. With the steady development of the economy, the demand for heavy trucks will also grow steadily.

As for the trend of the heavy truck industry, Weichai said that with the improvement of the economic situation and the active economic activities, the demand for logistics heavy trucks will rise; Infrastructure investment policies were implemented to promote the recovery of demand for engineering heavy trucks. As one of the main supporting power brands of domestic heavy truck products, Weichai predicts that its market share is expected to continue to increase due to the advantages of product performance, quality, stable customer structure and high horsepower.