Recently, the release of excavator sales data in December has put an end to the ups and downs of the excavator market in 2021. According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics in 2021 sold 342784 sets of various mining machinery products, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%. Although the overall sales volume still broke the record high, the growth rate slowed down significantly. Finally, after five consecutive years of rapid growth, the industry ushered in a rational return.
domestic market
Take a sharp turn downward and enter the continuous downward range
From January to December 2021, the sales volume of excavators in the domestic market was 274357, a year-on-year decrease of 6.32%. It broke the situation that the growth rate of domestic excavator sales has always been positive since the industry recovery entered the second round of upward cycle in 2016, and became the first year with negative growth rate in recent years.
Among them, the sales volume in the first quarter was 113565 units, with a year-on-year increase of 52288 units, an increase of 85.3%; In the second quarter, the sales volume was 80135 units, a year-on-year decrease of 14481 units, a decrease of 15.3%; In the third quarter, the sales volume was 38612 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18315 units, a decrease of 32.2%; In the fourth quarter, the sales volume was 42045 units, a year-on-year decrease of 37999 units, a decrease of 47.5%.
From the monthly sales data, due to the low base in the same period in 2020 and the forward movement of the traditional spring sales season, the sales of excavators soared from January to March. Among them, the sales growth of domestic excavators reached 255.5% in February, becoming the month with the highest sales growth in the whole year; In March, the sales volume of excavators in the domestic market was 72977, which set a new monthly sales record of excavators in China, and even far exceeded the total sales volume in 2016 (70320). However, this high growth has not been continued. Since April, the sales volume of domestic excavator market has plunged, the growth rate has dropped sharply, and began to enter the continuous downward range. Until December, the growth rate has always been negative. Among them, the growth rate of domestic excavator sales in November reached the lowest in 2021, with a decline of more than 50% (- 51.4%). Faced with the sharp decline in growth rate since Q2, some analysts believe that this round of decline indicates that the upward cycle of the industry has reached the inflection point, while others believe that this round of decline is affected by multiple factors such as the high base in 2020, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is lower than market expectations and the continuous high operation of steel raw material prices, which is not enough to prove the arrival of a new wave of adjustment cycle.
export market
Rising steadily, which is a strong support for the steady growth of total sales volume
Unlike the "big cooling" in the domestic market, the excavator export market in 2021 can be described as "rising day by day". Benefiting from the limitations of overseas production capacity due to the epidemic and the economic stimulus policies of overseas countries and regions, the booming overseas demand, coupled with the impact of the globalization of domestic brands and the gradual improvement of overseas channel layout, the export sales of domestic equipment ushered in a period of rapid growth in 2021. The annual export sales reached 68427 units, with a year-on-year increase of 97.00%, which was far higher than the market expectation.
In a single month, the month with the highest export sales in 2021 was December, reaching 8615 sets, a record high for the export sales of Chinese excavators in a single month, exceeding the annual export sales in February 2016 (7326 sets). The highest year-on-year growth rate was 166.3% in April, while the lowest growth rate was more than 50% (57.9%) in February. The three months with the highest year-on-year growth rate of export sales in the whole year were concentrated in Q2. Throughout the year, the export market has become an important revenue growth point of the excavator industry.
At present, compared with overseas leading enterprises such as Caterpillar and Komatsu, whose overseas business accounts for more than 60%, the proportion of overseas income of domestic leading enterprises is still at a low level, so there is still much room for improvement. Overseas business may become the starting point of the "leveling" cycle of these enterprises.
Tonnage structure
Only the sales volume of China Mining increased, and the proportion increased
In terms of tonnage structure, 33545 units (≥ 28.5t) were sold in the domestic market from January to December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%; The sales volume of medium excavation (18.5 ~ 28.5t) was 77818 units, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; The sales volume of small excavation (< 18.5t) was 162994 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%. Among the three tonnage models, only the year-on-year growth rate of medium excavation is positive, the growth rate of other models is negative, and the decline of large excavation is the largest.
In terms of the proportion of market sales of large, medium and small excavation, the cumulative sales of large excavation, medium excavation and small excavation in the domestic market from January to December 2021 accounted for 12%, 28% and 60% respectively. Among them, the proportion of medium excavation sales has increased. Although the proportion of small excavation sales has decreased slightly, it still occupies most of the market with 60%.
As the opening year of the "14th five year plan", this report card of excavator market in 2021 is worth tasting carefully. As the consistent strong support of various brands, the domestic market is now facing a decline in demand in the new cycle, coupled with the impact of multiple factors such as the epidemic, how will enterprises respond? Even though various uncertain factors in the foreign market are more intertwined, the rise of overseas sales still shows us great opportunities. Of course, we have to ask, are there preparations for seizing the opportunities in advance? Some analysts believe that considering the early and accelerated issuance of special bonds in 2022, the recovery of infrastructure investment growth is conducive to stimulating the demand for domestic excavators. With the continuous improvement of the market competitiveness of domestic brands and the improvement of overseas channel layout, the export market is expected to continue high growth.
From the soaring sales to the return to rationality, we can feel that the development of the excavator industry has actually fully entered the stock market. In addition to the impact of the "Fourth National Congress", there are fewer and fewer new growth points, and the problems in front of the industry are gradually becoming prominent. In this regard, compared with whether the tangled industry can be boosted by policy support in the future, in the face of the industry trend that may continue to decline, whether the industry enterprises have made sufficient preparations may be the problem we should focus on.
