According to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, from 2011 to 2020, the sales volume of small excavators (Note: the statistics of the association are divided by < 18.5t) increased from 82000 to 177000, realizing a blowout growth; The proportion in total sales increased from 42.41% to 54.07%, of which the peak in 2015-2016 was about 65.00%. In 2021, affected by the epidemic situation, the price rise of bulk raw materials, the "double limit" and other adverse factors, the sales volume of small excavation was 163000 units, although it decreased by 7.99% year-on-year and the proportion decreased to 47.55%, it can still be regarded as a "harvest year" of sales.
From rising to falling, the small excavation market showed fatigue
As shown in Figure 1, the monthly sales trend of small excavators in 2021 is almost consistent with the total sales of excavators: the sales volume broke out in an all-round way from January to March, with a year-on-year high profile of more than 45%, including a year-on-year increase of 221.60% in February, reaching 14531 sets; In March, it set a new monthly sales record with a peak of 44368 units. However, since April, the "rise" trend has stopped abruptly, and the sales volume has decreased for nine consecutive months year-on-year. Except for 6.30% in April, the rest are hovering in the range of 20.00% ~ 50.00%. From the total sales volume of small excavation in 2017-2021 in Figure 2, after the adjustment of the previous cycle, the sales volume of small excavation began to rise from 2016 and 2017, reaching 177149 units in 2020, reaching the top of this cycle, and ending the growth trend with a slight decline of 7.99% in 2021.
In 2009, the market share of domestic excavator brands was only 24%; By 2021, only two leading enterprises Sany and XCMG had supported half of the excavator sales. The market share of foreign brands in China has gradually given way to Chinese brands. Small excavation is the "axis" and carries the process of market reconstruction. Among the manufacturers whose market share has steadily increased in recent years, all have performed well in the field of small and micro excavation. For example, Sany sy75c contributed more than 12000 small excavation sales (including sy75c Pro) in 2021, accounting for 7.54% of the total sales of small excavation in the whole year; Clg906e is the top seller of Liugong xiaodig in 2021, and its sales volume is close to 9000 units.
Combined with China's national conditions, domestic brands have much more price advantages. The smaller the machine, the greater the price difference. For ordinary individual users, buying small and micro excavation pays more attention to cost performance and cost recovery time, while the price of small excavation of foreign brands of the same ton is about 30% higher than that of domestic brands, which naturally discourages ordinary individual users.
In the post market era, can xiaodig achieve double growth of sales and profits
Throughout the year, Xiaobian noticed an interesting phenomenon: in the first half of 2021, in addition to Sany sy75c pro, Liugong clg906f-e (electric excavator) and xe17u launched by XCMG at the global micro excavation conference in October, there were few new models of small excavation, which obviously did not match the rhythm of 160000 + sales in the industry for two consecutive years. I do not know whether this is the case, or whether the enterprise "kept a low profile" and did not publicize it, hiding some "colored eggs"?
Let's look at another indisputable fact: since the second half of 2019, the negative gross profit of each small dig in sales of agents has reached 50000 ~ 80000 yuan. Even if the share rebate and other bonuses given by the manufacturer are included, the loss of each machine is mostly more than 20000 yuan. Therefore, when Xiaobian communicated with people in the industry about the topic of small excavation, he heard more than once that "there is basically no head of small excavation!" "Little dig loves who sells who sells. We don't want to sell!" It is not surprising that we have no time to take into account the new products after waiting for helpless feedback.
Small dig is an excellent cash flow strategic product. Good market performance will bring considerable working capital to the enterprise. However, in recent years, extreme credit sales models such as "low down payment and zero down payment" have become increasingly fierce, resulting in market disorder and sharp decline in market concentration. What's worse, the Zhongda mining market is also facing or will inevitably face the test of "price war". From the change of the proportion of small mining sales in 2017-2021 in Figure 3, the decline of the proportion of small mining sales may be one of the signals that the war spread to the Zhongda mining market.
As Chang Yudong, deputy general manager and service director of Shandong Lingong marketing company, once mentioned: before 2000, almost every agent had huge profits; Over time, especially after the "four trillion" stimulus in 2008, although the annual market sales volume continues to increase, the price and profit of products have been declining. By 2019, the profit of agent sales is almost zero, and even needs to be "inverted"; In 2020, the profits of small and medium-sized enterprises will also basically tend to zero; In 2021, even the price of large-scale excavation is also declining rapidly, and the market environment is further deteriorated.
For agents, since the "pre market" does not make money, can the "post market" make a difference? The answer is: although it is difficult, it is not impossible. At present, the absorption rate of domestic brand agents (the ratio between the profits generated except the sales of new machines and the overall cost of the company) is about 20% ~ 30%, while the absorption rate of some agents of foreign brands such as Caterpillar and Komatsu can reach 80% or more, indicating that the value of the post market has always existed. However, to give full play to the real value of the post market, our business model may need to undergo a major change. How did it change? We need to deeply cultivate the industry, grasp the law and discuss it carefully.
*** If you keep going, you can expect the future. There will be twists and turns in the road ahead, but it is also full of hope... Xiaobian followed suit, quoting Qi Jun, honorary president of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, at the end of the article to encourage people in the industry: host enterprises and agents should strictly abide by the bottom line, strictly control risks, coexist and win-win, and cherish the hard won development situation of the industry; To maintain a good attitude, based on the long-term, bear the corresponding social and industrial responsibilities, formulate marketing strategies and business policies within the reasonable profit space of the market, and compete in an orderly manner.
