On December 24, the 2021 national machinery industry economic situation report meeting opened in Beijing. Chen Bin, executive vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation, made a wonderful interpretation from two aspects: the economic operation situation of machinery industry this year and the prediction of the economic operation trend of machinery industry next year.
The interpretation is published as follows for your reference.
Since this year, the overall economic operation trend of the machinery industry has been "high in the front and low in the rear". In the first half of the year, it was at a high level, but the growth rate of major economic indicators began to decline month by month; In the second half of the year, the decline increased, some monthly indicators showed negative growth, and the cumulative indicators were still high. The biggest highlight of economic operation is that the two indicators of total import and export and total export hit a record high, and new energy vehicles showed explosive growth, which is expected to reach about 3.5 million in the whole year.
Basic situation of industry operation: the high growth rate of added value has fallen, the market demand for main products has shrunk, the main benefit indicators have declined month by month but are still at a high level, foreign trade has reached a record high, and the investment in fixed assets is basically stable.
Problems in the operation of the industry: the purchase price of raw materials is still high, affecting the benefits of machinery enterprises; The problem of difficult payment recovery continues; The pressure of insufficient orders has appeared; The decline in the number of workers, the rise in costs and the difficulty of recruitment have become prominent.
Analysis of current economic operation situation
Since the three quarter novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak, serious floods and floods, tight supply of electricity and coal, and price instability of supply chain have been the main factors that have been decreasing rapidly. 7. In August, September, October and November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.4%, 5.3%, 3.1%, 3.5% and 3.8% respectively, of which the added value of machinery industry increased by 1.9%, 0.5%, 0.9%, - 0.7% and 0.8% respectively; The profit of machinery industry in that month has decreased year-on-year for five consecutive months. Among the 121 Main products mainly monitored by the machinery industry, 57 varieties with year-on-year growth in output in the current month have been less than half. Among them, automobile production and sales have decreased year-on-year for 6 consecutive months, and operating revenue and realized profit have decreased year-on-year for 5 consecutive months. The production of agricultural machinery, engineering machinery and other products began to decline after the rapid growth, and the product output showed negative growth in the current month. In addition, the lack of export follow-up orders, the impact of epidemic fluctuations on project performance and delivery of finished products, as well as the impact of rising exchange rate, rising freight rate and insufficient transportation capacity, there is uncertainty in the export situation of machinery industry.
Analysis of key industries
Automobile industry: the annual automobile production and sales volume in 2021 is expected to increase slightly compared with the previous year. In 2022, it is expected that the automobile production and sales will increase by 5% - 6% year-on-year, and the new energy vehicles will continue to maintain double-digit growth.
Electrical and electrical industry: it is expected that the main economic indicators of the industry will show a trend of high before low in 2021. The growth rate of operating revenue is about 5%, and the profit growth rate is lower than that of operating revenue.
Petrochemical General Equipment Industry: Based on the development environment at home and abroad, it is expected that the operating revenue and profit of Petrochemical General equipment industry will increase by about 8% in 2021. In 2022, it is expected that enterprises in the petrochemical general equipment industry will increase their operating revenue and profits by about 6%.
Heavy mining industry: it is preliminarily expected that the heavy machinery industry can maintain the momentum of steady progress in 2022, but the growth rate will drop to a single digit, with an annual growth rate of 4-6%.
Machine tool industry: it is expected that the machine tool industry will show stable and restorative growth in 2021, with the growth rate of main economic indicators above 5%. Preliminary expectation: in 2022, China's machine tool industry will continue the operation trend of this year, and the main economic indicators will be the same or slightly lower than this year.
Agricultural Machinery Industry: the annual operating revenue is expected to increase by about 10% in 2021.
Construction machinery industry: it is expected that the growth rate of annual operating revenue will decline in 2021, but the growth is still about 10%. Preliminary expectation: in 2022, the operating revenue will increase by 5 ~ 8%, the total profit will increase steadily, and the export will strive to achieve growth.
Annual forecast and 2022 forecast
To sum up, the overall economic operation of the machinery industry in 2021 will show a trend of top and bottom. The main economic indicators are expected: the growth rate of industrial added value, operating revenue and realized profit is more than 6%, and the import and export of foreign trade has broken through a record high.
Preliminary expectation: the main economic indicators of the machinery industry in 2022 are: the growth rate of industrial added value and operating revenue will strive to reach about 5.5%, the profit will strive to be the same as this year, and the import and export trade will remain basically stable.
