In 2020, the prosperity of my country's construction machinery industry is still at a relatively high level. The downstream industry has strong demand. The sales of various products have increased year-on-year. The growth rate of excavator sales continues to remain high, and the industry's prosperity cycle continues to extend.
The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the supply side of the construction machinery industry is limited. The demand side will be greatly affected by the epidemic in the first quarter of 2020. However, as the resumption of production and work across the country accelerates, the previously suppressed demand is released, and the downstream infrastructure industry is countercyclically adjusted The sales of various products in the second, third and fourth quarters increased significantly year-on-year.
The pressure on the supply side of the new crown pneumonia epidemic mainly comes from the shortage of overseas parts procurement. At present, the core parts and components of my country's construction machinery companies still rely on overseas procurement, such as engines, hydraulic parts, gearboxes, etc. In the face of the parts procurement requirements put forward by OEMs, overseas suppliers may not meet the purchase orders of OEMs. It may be met with a delay of several months, which will affect the delivery to end customers. In addition, in the face of the epidemic, international logistics and transportation will also be affected to a certain extent. This is also a major risk that affects the procurement of accessories to meet production. However, from the actual situation, the procurement of overseas parts and components did not severely restrict the production of OEMs after the resumption of work in March. The OEMs have sufficient reserves of core components and the supply chain is functioning normally.
The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the construction machinery industry mainly comes from the demand side. The outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in early 2020 has delayed the resumption of work in downstream industries, which restrained the demand for construction machinery products in the short term. From January to March, the sales volume of excavators was only 68,300. Units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.22%; sales of loaders were 23,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 21.72%; sales of truck cranes were 10,900 units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.53%. Entering the second quarter, the resumption of work and production in various regions has gradually accelerated, dealers have restocked inventory, and countercyclical adjustment policies have continued to increase. The downstream industries have increased demand for various construction machinery products. The second, third and fourth quarter sales of excavators increased by 63.06%, 57.39% and 61.24% year-on-year respectively; the second, third and fourth quarter sales of loaders increased by 21.26%, 13.41% and 40.05% year-on-year; the second, third and fourth cranes The quarterly sales volume increased by 46.58%, 55.77% and 31.63% respectively year-on-year. The off-season was not weak, and the industry cycle was further lengthened.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic has had a certain impact on the export of construction machinery products. In the first half of 2020, due to the impact of overseas epidemics, the growth rate of excavator exports has declined, with export sales of 14,500 units, an increase of 17.81% over the same period last year. With the control of the overseas epidemic situation, exports have improved significantly since July. From January to December 2020, the monthly growth rates of export sales will be 35.32%, 62.51%, 17.71%, 0.88%, 3.25%, 7.64%, 32.51, respectively. %, 25.74%, 31.30%, 59.43%, 57.77% and 44.36%.
Looking forward to 2021, the domestic epidemic will not have a major impact on the development of the industry, but the development trend of the foreign epidemic is still unclear, or it will have a certain impact on the export of construction machinery products. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the development of foreign epidemics.
On the whole, it is unlikely that China's construction machinery industry will experience a decline in its growth rate under the background of a high base number, but the fluctuation range is relatively limited, and the overall situation will remain stable, without the sharp fluctuations of the previous cycle; downstream industry investment growth may be possible Will decline, but environmental upgrades, replacement of machines, exports and other factors will become the driving force to support the sales of construction machinery in 2021, and the industry’s prosperity will continue; leading companies rely on their own product advantages, supply chain advantages and capital advantages, and market share It will be further improved, which will cause certain pressure on Japanese and Korean manufacturers, the industry structure will be more optimized, and the credit level of leading domestic companies will likely remain stable. In terms of the impact of the epidemic on the operation of the industry in 2021, domestic sales of construction machinery products will not be greatly affected under the premise that the epidemic continues to be under control, and with the increase in counter-cyclical adjustments, product sales are expected to show up. Continued growth; however, the current development of the foreign epidemic situation is still unclear, and there is greater uncertainty, which may have a certain impact on the export of construction machinery products. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the development of the foreign epidemic situation.
