From May last year to April this year, the heavy-duty truck industry continued to grow at a high speed. Each month's sales set a new historical record for the month. In March of this year, the sales of the heavy-duty truck market set a new high for monthly sales in the global heavy-duty truck market.
In May, due to unfavorable factors such as high heavy-duty truck inventory, continued decline in demand and orders, my country's heavy-duty truck market sales fell for the first time this year. Various signs indicate that the heavy-duty truck market has reached an inflection point from rising to falling.
Reasons for the decline in the heavy truck market
First, the end market demand is weak. Due to factors such as insufficient supply of goods, declining freight rates, and lower-than-expected infrastructure projects, the purchase demand for new heavy trucks has also experienced a rapid year-on-year decline, which has led to a continuous decline in customer orders from dealers in various regions.
Secondly, the inventory of heavy trucks is high. The industry-wide inventory is conservatively expected to exceed 300,000 vehicles, and some even predict that it will reach 350,000 to 400,000 vehicles. The heavy-duty truck industry has such a high inventory, on the one hand, because of the disturbance of the National VI policies and regulations; on the other hand, it is affected by the sluggish demand for car purchases. In order to compete for the last wave of National V opportunities before the implementation of National VI, major heavy-duty truck companies started full-horsepower production from January to April this year (even in April when terminal demand began to decline, there was almost no reduction in production). It also spares no effort to distribute goods, and the channel inventory and in-transit inventory continue to increase.
Third, it is affected by policies. Recently, several provinces and cities, such as Shanghai, Tianjin, Shandong, Henan, Nanjing and other places, have issued policies to postpone the licensing of new vehicles in the National V, which has reserved more production and sales buffer periods for manufacturers and dealers.
Heavy truck weather vane
As the overall market began to "turn down" in May, the sales of major heavy-duty truck companies also tended to "decrease". Among them, in the increasingly fierce market qualifying competition, FAW Jiefang continued to maintain its leading position, with sales reaching nearly 40,000 vehicles; Sinotruk continued to maintain the second position in the industry after April, and was the only company in the top ten to grow. ; Most companies are showing a year-on-year decline.
Specifically, in the first heavy truck camp composed of Jiefang, Dongfeng and Sinotruk, FAW Jiefang continued to maintain its leading position. In May, it sold about 38,500 heavy trucks. From January to May this year, the total sales of Jiefang heavy trucks were 252,300. A year-on-year increase of 32%, with a market share of 28.6%.
Sinotruk continued to maintain its second place in the industry in May, with sales of approximately 33,000 vehicles, a significant increase of 31% year-on-year, ranking first in growth rate and being the only mainstream company in the industry to increase; Sinotruk’s cumulative sales of heavy trucks from January to May 162,500 vehicles, an increase of 74% year-on-year, and the market share rose to 18.4%.
The third place in the heavy truck business segment of Dongfeng Company (including Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile, Dongfeng Huashen, etc.) under Dongfeng Company, delivered 31,500 vehicles in May; in the first five months of this year, Dongfeng Company has sold various heavy trucks. 167,500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 44%, and a market share of 19%. The cumulative sales volume is still the top two in the industry.
Shaanxi Automobile Group sold approximately 21,500 heavy-duty trucks in May, maintaining the top four in the industry. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of heavy-duty trucks totaled 114,400, a year-on-year increase of 36% and a market share of 13%. Foton Motor sold approximately 12,000 heavy-duty trucks in May of this year, and its sales from January to May increased by 18% year-on-year to 71,500, with a market share of approximately 8.1%.
SAIC Hongyan's heavy truck sales in May were about 8,500, steadily maintaining the sixth position in the industry; from January to May this year, Hongyan's cumulative sales of heavy trucks were 40,200, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with a market share of 4.6%.
Inventory is high, freight is low, and demand is sluggish. In May, the heavy-duty truck market experienced a year-on-year and month-on-month decline. Then, what about the situation in June? Is there a chance to reverse the decline and rise again? For now, the situation in June is not optimistic. What is the actual situation, let us wait and see.
