The sales express data of "king of construction machinery" excavator came out in February this year, and the domestic sales volume of excavator continued to decline year-on-year. Although the domestic monthly sales volume increased negatively for 11 consecutive months, the export sales volume maintained a high growth rate.
Relevant people in the machinery industry told reporters that from the short-term monthly data, because the growth rate of Q1 last year was too good, the sales volume of this year must decline year-on-year, but from the data of the past two months, it will be better than the situation expected at the end of last year. This year's mechanical industry is highly cyclical, but it has a certain degree of weakness in the former and the latter.
According to the researcher of Anxin securities machinery, under the background of steady growth of infrastructure construction in advance, the downstream investment side is expected to improve marginally and boost the demand for construction machinery. If the downstream construction starts to recover well, it is expected that the monthly sales growth rate will return to positive in Q2.
In February, the decline of excavators narrowed and exports maintained high growth
On March 8, China Construction Machinery Industry Association released the excavator sales data in February 2022. In February 2022, 24483 excavators of various types were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%; Among them, there were 17052 sets in China, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.5%; 7431 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 97.7%.
Compared with January 2022, 15600 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%, of which domestic excavators decreased by 48.3% and exports increased by 105% year-on-year; The domestic month on month decline began to narrow.
The reporter noted that the year-on-year growth rate of excavator sales from January to June 2021 was 97%, 205%, 60%, 3%, - 14% and - 6% respectively.
Insiders of several construction machinery companies told reporters that there was a high base effect of excavators last year, and the year-on-year growth rate will certainly be affected; In addition, the overall capacity of excavators is overcapacity this year, and the competition is fierce. Everyone is committed to reducing costs, increasing efficiency and increasing the market share of overseas business.
Taking Sany Heavy Industry as an example, the company's overseas sales revenue accounted for 20% in the first three quarters of 2021 and 26% in the third quarter. It is estimated that overseas revenue will exceed 30% in 2022. According to insiders of the company, overseas growth can smooth domestic fluctuations, and overseas gross profit is higher than domestic gross profit, and export is 1 point higher than domestic gross profit. The gross profit margin of excavators and cranes is higher than that at home. The rapid growth of overseas is helpful to improve the overall profit margin.
According to the analysis of Zheshang securities, with the weakening of the base effect, the commencement of major projects will boost procurement confidence, and the decline range of construction machinery represented by excavators will be significantly narrowed in the second quarter. If exports increase by 50% this year, it can hedge a 25% decline in domestic sales.
The speed of infrastructure construction is accelerated, and there is a lag in boosting demand
Excavator is a barometer of the industry and infrastructure. In the overall demand of the construction machinery market, infrastructure construction and real estate account for more than 60%, and the demand for excavators in infrastructure construction and real estate accounts for 40% and 35% respectively. In the first half of 2022, the downward pressure on the real estate market is still great. The main focus of supporting the sales of domestic excavators this year comes from infrastructure.
The reporter learned from a relevant person of a leading domestic machinery company that the current construction workload has increased one after another, and the prices of concrete machines, tower cranes and excavators are stable. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, they have not decreased, and individual products have increased slightly. However, as the infrastructure has just started, there will not be much response in the short term. As customers were encouraged to focus on purchasing at the end of last year, the demand became less in January this year, and the boom showed signs of bottoming out in February.
Another leading machinery company told reporters that it will take some time for some infrastructure projects to be truly reflected in the sales of the (machinery) industry. From the feedback information from the sales side in recent months, I think it may be a little better than that predicted at the end of last year. Construction machinery also said that there is a certain correlation between the national infrastructure and the company's main business, but there will be a certain lag in the transfer of the economic pull of investment to the company's main business
Major projects started successively this year. According to the analysis of securities companies, under the main tone of the policy of steady growth, the central economic conference proposed to carry out infrastructure construction moderately in advance, the government work report proposed the amount of 3.65 trillion special bonds in 2022, and accelerated the issuance. The downstream investment side is expected to improve marginally and boost the demand of construction machinery sector. Take excavator as an example, Under the influence of policy catalysis and the base of "high before low after" in 2021, the sales growth rate in 2022 is expected to pick up quarter by quarter.
From the performance of the secondary market, the growth rate of excavator sales in March this year may still not be optimistic, and the inflection point of the industry still needs to be observed. Since this year, companies with high market value, including Sany Heavy Industry, Hengli hydraulic, Zoomlion and XCMG machinery, have entered the valuation trough. Among them, the share price of Sany, which accounts for the highest share of excavator market, fell nearly 25% during the year, approaching the lowest point in two years.
