The Bank of China released a research report on economic and financial hotspots, stating that at the end of April 2021, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization released the 2020 edition of the "Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index (calculated based on 2018 indicators)." The index is calculated from 8 indicators including global share of manufacturing exports, per capita manufacturing value added, and export share of medium and high-tech products. The evaluation scope includes the competitiveness of manufacturing industries in 152 countries/regions around the world. The main concerns are as follows:
First, the development of China's manufacturing industry is improving, and the overall competitiveness advantage is obvious. According to the Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index, China’s manufacturing exports accounted for 96.4% of total exports in 2018, an increase of 12.4 percentage points from 1990; China’s manufacturing global competitiveness ranked second, second only to Germany, and remained at This level is an increase of 30 from 1990 and 10 from 2007 before the financial crisis. The overall intensity of China's industrialization is increasing. In 1990, the index was 53.3%, and in 2018 it increased to 66.7%. As the competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry increases, its position in the global industrial value chain and its spillover impact on the world's manufacturing industry are gradually increasing. In 1990, China's manufacturing exports accounted for only 2.5% of global manufacturing exports, but by 2008 it had climbed to 12%, becoming the world's largest manufacturing exporter, and its export share further rose to 17.2% in 2018. Similar to the trend of the index, China became the world's largest country in manufacturing added value in 2009, with a global share of 20.9%, and it further rose to 28.9% in 2018.
Second, the strong resilience of China's manufacturing industry has become an important highlight of the economic recovery. In the early stage of the outbreak, the PMI index of China's manufacturing industry rebounded rapidly, and it rose to above the line of prosperity and decline in March 2020, and it has remained so far, showing strong resilience. Driven by this, the scale of industrial production and export trade rebounded rapidly, becoming an important driving force supporting China's economy to turn from negative to positive in 2020 and continue to rebound. The contribution rate of the secondary industry to China's economic growth in 2020 will reach 34.4%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points from 2019, the highest since 2015. The contribution rate of the secondary industry to GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 was 47.1%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, maintaining a good growth trend. In the first four months of 2021, China's export trade of goods increased by 44%, continuing to maintain a good performance. In the context of the restructuring of the global industrial chain and intensified competition, the resilience and maneuverability of China's manufacturing industry have strongly supported the steady recovery of China's economy.
Third, the export structure and product quality of China's manufacturing industry have improved significantly, but the competitiveness of the mid- and high-tech manufacturing industry is still insufficient. At the same time as the total growth, the export structure, performance and quality of export products of China's manufacturing industry have also been improved simultaneously. The proportion of medium and high-tech manufacturing exports in total manufacturing exports has increased from less than 30% in 1990 to more than 60% in 2018. Manufacturing exports are dominated by medium and high-tech manufactured products. The quality of export products has improved significantly, and the industrial export quality index has increased from 59.6% in 1990 to 83% in 2018, which is equivalent to the quality of industrial exports in advanced economies.
However, it cannot be ignored that China is still in the middle and lower reaches of the world's industrial chain and value chain, and the added value creativity of medium and high-tech manufacturing is still low. In the past 30 years, China’s medium and high-tech manufacturing industry’s share of the total manufacturing value added has risen slightly, from 37.8% in 1990 to 41.5% in 2018, which is lower than the increase in the export share of medium and high-tech manufacturing (32.1%). percentage point). The ratio of the two is used to measure the export value-added creation capacity of the medium and high-tech manufacturing industry. In 1990, it was 1.3, while the current value is only 0.7. The increase in the export share of the medium and high-tech manufacturing industry has not brought about a proportional increase in the value-added. Export performance needs to be strengthened. In contrast to manufacturing powerhouses such as Germany and Japan, the share of high-tech manufacturing value added in all manufacturing value added in 2018 was 61.7% and 56.6%, respectively, 20.2 and 15.1 percentage points higher than China. China’s manufacturing industry’s added value as a proportion of GDP has also not changed much. In 2018, the proportion was 29%, which was only about 8 percentage points higher than in 1990. It is particularly important to note that since 2013, the proportion of China's manufacturing industry's added value in GDP has declined for five consecutive years, and it is necessary to be alert to the phenomenon of "de-industrialization". In addition, China’s per capita manufacturing value added needs to be further improved. In 1990, it was only US$185. Although it was raised to US$2,726 in 2018, the level is still low. It is comparable to Germany (US$9,148), the United States (US$6762), and Japan (7556). There is still a big gap compared with developed economies such as US dollars) and Singapore (10974 US dollars).
Fourth, the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in the Asia-Pacific region has improved, and the industrial chain has accelerated. Taken together, Europe, North America, and East Asia are the world’s three major manufacturing bases, but their development trends are different. Germany's manufacturing competitiveness ranks first in the world, and its ability to produce and export finished products is outstanding. However, in terms of "technology deepening and upgrading" and "world influence", East Asian countries represented by China and South Korea have gradually come to the fore. South Korea's manufacturing competitiveness has risen by one and ranked third in the world, mainly relying on maintaining high global competition Powerful semiconductor, liquid crystal display, petrochemical and other major industries. The North American region represented by the United States, although the scores are high, the overall trend is declining, and the ranking has dropped from the previous second in the world to the fourth.
Asian economies have different endowments, their value chain advantages, and their different characteristics complement each other, which promotes the integrated development of Asian industrial chains. According to UNCTAD estimates, from 2010 to 2018, the RCEP regional global value chain trade volume increased by 34%, and the intra-regional value chain trade grew faster. In 2017, the global value chain trade volume between RCEP member countries reached 1.5 trillion US dollars , An increase of 50% over 2010. Among them, China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN countries play a major role in the regional value chain. Since countries belong to different levels of value chains, this provides a realistic possibility for further strengthening intra-regional cooperation and co-building an Asia-Pacific value chain system in the future.
