According to industry statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 26 mainframe manufacturers included in the statistics in April 2021 sold a total of 46,572 excavators of various types. Among them, 41,100 units were sold in the domestic market and 5472 units were exported.
Investment points
Sales of 47,000 excavators in April, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, the growth rate of Sany and XCMG far surpassed the industry
Sales of 47,000 excavators in April were up 2.5% year-on-year, basically in line with expectations. Among them, 41,000 units in China, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, were due to two reasons: 1) The impact of the epidemic in 2020 led to a shift in demand, which resulted in a higher base in April; 2) The "New Year in situ" in 2021 caused some demand to move forward to the first quarter. So as to advance part of the April demand;
In April, 5472 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 166%; from January to April, a total of 19,000 units were exported, which was 100% year-on-year. The continued high growth in exports is expected to be mainly due to the relief of the epidemic in some overseas regions. We estimate that the sales of SANY excavators in April will increase by 15%-20% year-on-year, and XCMG's sales of excavators in April will increase by 10%-15% year-on-year. Both growth rates are significantly ahead of the industry. It is expected that the market share will be further concentrated in April. .
The proportion of mid-April digging sales increased by 1.8pct, and the proportion of large digging and small digging sales decreased by 1.1pct and 0.7pct
In April, the domestic market sales of mid-digging was 12,000 units, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year, and sales accounted for about 29%, an increase of 1.8pct year-on-year; the sales of small digging units was 25,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, and sales accounted for 61%, a decrease of 0.7 pct; The sales volume of Big Dig was 4496 units, down 14% year-on-year, and the sales accounted for 11%, down 1.1pct. In the first four months of the domestic market, the sales volume of Digge was 45,000 units, up 74% year-on-year, and sales accounted for 29%, up year-on-year. 4.3pct; small digging sales were 93,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 40%, and sales accounted for 60%, a decrease of 3.2pct; large digging sales were 17,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and sales accounted for 11%, a decrease of 1.2pct.
In April, the domestic brand market share in the domestic market was close to 80%, an increase of about 10pct year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of about 2pct. The market share of domestic brands further increased.
In 2021, Q1 construction machinery segment net profit rate will increase by 153%, laying a good foundation for annual performance growth. In 2020, the revenue of A-share Shenwan construction machinery segment will increase by 31% year-on-year, and net profit will increase by 39% year-on-year; in 2021, Q1 revenue will increase by 88% year-on-year , Net profit increased by 153% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for annual performance growth. It is estimated that the sales volume of the excavator industry in 2021 is expected to exceed 380,000 units, and the growth rate is expected to be close to 20%. From January to April 2021, a total of 174,000 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 52%; of which 155,000 were domestic, a year-on-year increase of 48%; exports; 19,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 100%. Assuming that the monthly sales volume of excavators from May to December maintains zero growth, the sales volume of the excavator industry for the year is still expected to exceed 380,000 units, an increase of about 18%. Industry leaders such as Sany Heavy Industries, after completing import substitution, are expected to become the world's leading construction machinery industry as China's current advantageous industry. Chinese companies can rely on economies of scale, industrial chain advantages, and operational efficiency advantages to achieve global leadership. Industry leaders such as Sany Heavy Industry will gain considerable market share in the world after completing domestic import substitution, and will move from a Chinese leader to a global leader.
Investment Advice
In construction machinery, we continue to recommend the leader of the excavator industry chain. In the medium and long term, Sany Heavy Industry (Zheshang's January Golden Stock) and Hengli Hydraulics are recommended; and XCMG Machinery (Zheshang's April and May Golden Stocks), Zoomlion, and Construction Machinery are recommended in phases.
