2022 is a year of ups and downs. With the repeated outbreaks of Neocrown Pneumonia and the huge changes in the economic environment, China's construction machinery industry has experienced five consecutive years of upward cycles, and the downward pressure has increased sharply. Under the background of overlapping times, how can each participant in the value chain of China's construction machinery industry go through the cycle of industry and macro environment to achieve sustainable win-win development? How to redefine the value of the industrial chain and rebuild the business model?
2022 China Construction Machinery Marketing&Post Market Conference was officially opened on September 15. This conference gathered influential people from China's construction machinery industry, built a high-level communication platform, talked about "going through the cycle", and looked forward to the future with colleagues.
Yang Zhifang, head of the Construction Machinery Media Business Department of Beijing Zhuozhong Publishing Co., Ltd. and secretary-general of the Agency Working Committee of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, released the 2022 China Construction Machinery Service Capability Report, which thoroughly analyzed the survival status and service status of mainstream channels.
It has been 18 years since we first released the report on China's construction machinery circulation in 2003.
China Construction Machinery Circulation Field Report
1、 Analysis on the operation of the business group in 2022
1. The sales scale of agents has narrowed
This year is the first year that the proportion of sales volume of large and small agents has reversed in the past six years. From 2017 to 2021, for five consecutive years, the proportion of large-scale agents increased again and the proportion of small-scale agents decreased again. In 2022, on the contrary, the proportion of large-scale agents will decrease again and the proportion of small-scale agents will increase again.
Specifically, the data in 2022 shows that, on the whole, 35% of the small agents whose sales scale is less than 100 million in 2021 will increase to 44% in 2022, an increase of nearly 9 percentage points year-on-year. On the contrary, in 2021, 23% of the large agents with sales scale of more than 500 million will decrease to 17% in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 6%.
2. The profit of the agent group is inferior to that of the previous cycle
In the 2022's, the profit of the dealers was the worst in the last five years, and the profit of the agent group declined year by year for three consecutive years. Among them, in 2022, the proportion of agents with profits below 20 million yuan was 86.5%, up 9 percentage points year on year, while in 2011, the proportion was 47% at the peak of the previous cycle.
3. Prediction of business profit and loss in 2022
About 72.7% of the surveyed agents were in a loss state from January to August 2022, 16.7 percentage points worse than the previous year, of which 34.6% had a loss margin of more than 10%, 7.9 percentage points worse than the previous year. Only 6.4% of the agents made more than 10% profit, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year on year; However, the low profit agents with profits of 0-10% accounted for 20.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2 percentage points. The main reason for the loss of such a large proportion of agents is that the price war of vicious competition is eating away the final profits of agents at this stage.
4. The agents began to differentiate, and the enterprise scale was greatly simplified
In the 2022's, the average growth rate of human resources in business management will be -18.1%, which means that the average reduction rate of agents will be 18.1%. The proportion of enterprises with more than 100 agents will decrease significantly, while the proportion of enterprises with less than 100 agents will increase from 24% in 2021 to 45%, an increase of 21 percentage points year-on-year. This shows that most agents are reducing their size and manpower.
In 2022, the proportion of agents with less than 50 salespeople will reach 59%, and the proportion of agents with less than 100 salespeople will approach 90%; The number of agents with less than 50 service personnel accounted for 52%, and the number of agents with less than 100 accounted for 86%.
5. Great changes in sales methods
In 2022, in addition to the year-on-year growth in the proportion of full payment sales and leasing sales, the proportion of other installment payments, mortgage leasing and financial leasing is decreasing year on year. This shows that the whole agent group has begun to tighten its risk control, further strengthen its risk awareness, and continue to try again in the aspect of operating lease.
6. Post market business operation of agents
The proportion of post market business of 30% agents is between 20% and 40%, the proportion of post market business of nearly 30% agents is between 10% and 20%, and the proportion of post market business of 22% agents is more than 40%. Only one fifth of the agency's aftermarket business accounts for less than 10%.
2、 Analysis of end users' living conditions in 2022
1. Return period of equipment investment
In 2022, users will purchase a 20t medium-sized excavator, with a return on investment period of about 3.97 years, 5.9 months shorter than that in 2021. When the user purchases a 6-15t small excavator, the return on investment period is about 2.39 years, 1.8 months longer than that in 2021. The user buys a 30t large excavator, and the average return on investment period is about 3.82 years.
2. The net flow loss rate of Chinese construction machinery users is 7%
Compared with the previous year, the change of the user group is still that the loss rate is greater than the new entry rate, and the user group continues to integrate and differentiate.
From the time of entry, the proportion of people with 5 to 20 years of experience was 91.7%, 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. This part of the user group has most of the stock of construction machinery and equipment in the market.
3、 Domestic Market Forecast of China Construction Machinery
1. CMI index
CMI index is China's construction machinery market index. CMI index was created in 2011 and released in 2022, which has been released for 10 consecutive years. CMI130 is the expansion critical point and CMI100 is the contraction critical point.
From January to August 2022, the CMI value was lower than the expansion value of 130, and the year-on-year growth rate was negative for five consecutive months, indicating that in 2022, the domestic construction machinery market represented by the excavator market has gradually entered the bottoming process in the downward cycle.
From the CMI index sub index, new order index, production index, inventory index, price index and other indicators, we clearly feel that the heat of China's construction machinery market is weakening, and it has entered a downward fluctuation cycle of three to five years. However, the downward cyclical fluctuation will be significantly weaker than that of the previous cycle, so we may not need to be too pessimistic.
2. 2023 excavator market forecast
From January to August 2022, the domestic excavator sales volume in China will reach 109475, a year-on-year decrease of 52.88%; It is estimated that the annual domestic market sales will reach about 155000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 43.50%.
According to the monitoring and forecasting data model of China Construction Machinery Industry Market Research Center, we predict that the domestic excavator market will sell more than 112000 sets in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 27.7%.
2022 Service Capacity Research Report
In 2021, we launched the biannual Top 50 Selection of China's Construction Machinery Services. This year, we continued to conduct tracking research on data related to service capabilities, aiming to improve the post market service level of China's construction machinery, promote the construction of the post market service system of China's construction machinery, and guide the benign, sustainable and healthy development of the service of the construction machinery industry.
1、 Service operation indicators of agents
In 2022, the average per capita service income of the investigated agent enterprises will be nearly 690000 yuan, an increase of 78.30% from 385000 yuan a year earlier. The average number of service guarantee equipment per capita was 51, down 5.6% from 54 in the previous year. The average value of accessories sales per capita was 1.13 million yuan, an increase of 54 percentage points over the previous year's 730000 yuan. The average post market absorption rate was 31%, down 5.2 percentage points from 37% last year.
From the distribution of enterprises with different per capita service income from 2021-2022, the proportion of enterprises with increased per capita service income increased significantly. According to the results, the per capita service income of the agents varies greatly. The annual total service income of several leading agents has exceeded 300 million yuan, and the number of leading enterprises has risen sharply, raising the average level of the industry.
According to the distribution of enterprises with different per capita service guarantee equipment and different per capita accessory sales from 2021-2022, there is an obvious trend for enterprises to develop at two levels.
According to the distribution of enterprises with different post market absorption rates from 2021-2022, the overall decline of enterprises is obvious. The slight reduction of post market absorption rate, on the one hand, means that the overall gross profit of the post market business of service enterprises is also slightly reduced due to the impact of the industry downturn.
2、 HR indicators of agent services
In 2022, the average number of service engineers in the investigated agent enterprises is 80, a decrease of 30% over the previous year's 114;
The average number of service engineers for more than three years was 71%, down 3 percentage points year on year.
From the distribution of enterprises with different number of service engineers from 2021-2022, the overall number of enterprise service engineers decreased significantly, and the proportion of senior service engineers decreased slightly. The reason may be that some enterprises have also laid off experienced service engineers in some industries in consideration of the impact of labor costs and service performance.
3、 Maintenance parts guarantee index of service
In 2022, the average number of service vehicles equipped by the investigated agent enterprises is 64, a decrease of 24% over the previous year; The average area of the maintenance workshop was 3528m2, a decrease of 7 percentage points over the previous year; The average 24-hour repair rate was 86.5%, a decrease of 6% over the previous year; The average one-time delivery rate of parts was 84%, a decrease of 9% over the previous year.
From 2021-2022, the number of vehicles equipped with different services and the distribution of enterprises with the scale of maintenance workshops show that the two indicators have decreased significantly. According to the survey, it has become a trend to integrate the affiliated workshops of the third, fourth and fifth tier branches into the suburbs of the second and third tier cities or the headquarters of the first tier cities.
According to the distribution of enterprises with different 24-hour repair rates from 2021-2022, the industry's 24-hour repair rate declined slightly, which is to some extent related to the streamlining of hard service resources such as service personnel and service vehicles. The 24-hour repair rate is the core measure of users' satisfaction with service. Only 5% of survey enterprises have a 24-hour repair rate of more than 98%.
4、 The second mobile phone of agent service&training indicators
In 2022, the average annual training frequency of the investigated agent enterprises is 19, a decrease of 54% over the previous year; In 2022, the average number of annual training person times of the investigated agent enterprises is 735, a decrease of 18 percentage points compared with last year.
In 2022, 94.74% of the surveyed agent enterprises have built a service system for second-hand equipment; The average annual trading volume of second-hand equipment in was 220 units, down 54% from 475 units a year earlier; The average value of the replacement volume of second-hand equipment in the proportion of new machine sales is 24%; The average annual refurbishment of second-hand equipment is 12.
5、 Digital service capacity indicators of business services in 2022
In 2022, 70% of the agents surveyed will have digital platforms to monitor, manage and evaluate the whole process of services. 72% of the surveyed enterprises use WeChat official accounts, small programs and other platforms to conduct after-sales service management and enhance the viscosity with users.
33% of the surveyed agents have short video operation teams. The use of new media platforms by agents. From this, we can find that the new media platforms that the majority of construction machinery service enterprises attach most importance to are WeChat service number, voice number and video number platforms.
The average number of new media service platform customers is 10566; The average content update frequency is 5.4 times/month; The average interaction frequency with customers is 117 times/month.
The above data may have some deviations, because we have only carried out two years of service data research. Please correct any mistakes. Service is very important for the future of agents. Please do not compress too much in difficult times. We expect to see better overall industry service data next year.
