Summary of the report
The sales volume is not bad in the off-season, and the annual high growth is established: according to our latest forecast, it is estimated that the sales volume of excavators in June increased by 50%-60% compared with the same period last year. Due to the fact that there are still a lot of undelivered orders in the industry, the 7-8 month probability is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate. In the 9-10 quarter, the growth rate of the peak season is likely to decrease, but this year, the sales volume of excavators has been basically established. Referring to past experience, sales volume of over 180 thousand units this year is not a big problem.
Construction to maintain high, expected to be flat or slightly increased in June: according to the communication with many host plants, it is estimated that the number of opening hours of the excavators in June has increased slightly over the same period, indicating that the construction will still maintain a high level. Of course, the rainy season in late June may affect downstream construction, so we judged that the start up in June was flat or slightly increased.
The industry keeps rational, cash flow is the best level of history: the main participation of the market is rational, the customers are old customers, the downstream projects are more definite; the agent return is very good, the return rate remains high, and the new overdue are very few. Manufacturers are very strict in credit sales policy, adequate provision for bad debts, and operating cash flow reaches the best level in history. There is no bubble in the rational development of the industry.
Industry leading performance is expected to exceed expectations, macro policy expectations change to restore Valuation: with the continuous overexpected sales of construction machinery, the industry's profit and cash flow in the two quarter is expected to be better than the first quarter, and leading enterprises in the industry are overexpected. At the same time, due to the escalation of trade frictions, domestic macroeconomic policies are expected to change. Overall reduction in June 24th is an important signal and also conducive to the restoration of plate valuations. In the short term, it is expected to see Davies's double strike of plate performance and valuation.
Investment proposal: taking into account the strong strength of the strong leader of the construction machinery, on the one hand, the performance and the quality of the operation are greatly won, on the other hand, there are two level market liquidity premiums in the leading enterprises under the current environment, with the emphasis on the industry Sany, Liugong and Xugong machinery, and the core parts enterprises Hengli hydraulic and Addie. Precise.
Risk warning: macro policy faces may tighten, and follow-up work is not up to expectations.
