Data show that the monthly sales volume of construction machinery is continuously high, indicating that there is a "scissors gap" between the construction machinery industry and the macro economy. In the next three years, on the basis of updating the demand base, with the improvement of the permeability of engineering machinery, the increase of the export ratio and the optimization of the industry pattern, the resilience of the report of the leading enterprises is large, and it is expected to exceed the cycle.
Further look, in May 2018, the domestic leading enterprises Sany, XCP machinery, mountain and river intelligent sales growth rate is higher than the industry average growth rate of 71.3%, leading enterprises and cities to increase, the market pattern is further optimized.
Among them, the monthly sales volume of construction machinery foundation engineering equipment plate shifted to medium speed growth on the basis of last year's high base. At present, the market is concerned about the decline of the cycle and the differences are increasing, the share price of the plate is "decoupled" with the performance and sales performance. In combination with the recent visit to the host enterprise, we believe that the growth of the cycle is strengthened and the cycle of the boom is expected to lengthen. The main reason is: first, the industry enters the stock age and the insured quantity Large scale, update demand dominated (accounting for about 60%), gradual and rhythmic renewal demand release for the sustainability of the industry has provided strong support for the sustainability of the industry; two, the market subject is more rational, the mainframe enterprise strict customer credit review, credit sales conditions and risk control, 18 years of 18 years of industrial staging ratio generally up; three The number of commencement hours remains relatively high, the real estate rebound is expected to increase, and the rural construction sector will release new growth momentum.
According to the industrial chain investigation, the number of hours of operation of rotary drilling machines and dynamic ramming machines has been continuously high, and the demand for overall start-up has shown a continuous trend. At the same time, from the sales data, the monthly growth in the monthly sales volume of the heavy rammer after the rotary drilling rig increased.
In recent years, domestic brand has been strengthened in many aspects such as technology, brand and channel. In recent years, with the continuous enhancement of competitiveness, the market share of domestic brands has continued to increase, and the daily and Korean departments are shrinking. By May 2018, the domestic brand market share has risen from 22.2% to 53.7%, and the technical threshold is higher. The market share of single products with higher value is also rising.
Under the background of cycle prosperity superposition report restoration, the performance of the listed companies of the plate is generally substantially warmer: first, the asset side, the historical problems of accounts receivable are gradually cleared, and after the 17 year plate listed companies are concentrated to subtract, the loss of asset impairment losses into the decline channel; two, the cash flow status of plate listed companies continues to continue. Improve. We believe that the industry development toughness, the boom cycle is expected to lengthen, and the current high growth and concrete mechanical transmission, cycle high boom, with report repair, leading company performance flexibility is expected to accelerate release. At present, the valuation of major plate companies is relatively low, with higher safety margin and upward elasticity.
In conclusion, we can see that the leading enterprises of construction machinery are expected to maintain rapid growth in net profit in the next 3 years. First, with the artificial substitution, the number of construction machinery driven by unit investment continues to increase, and the permeability of engineering machinery continues to increase; second, the stock has entered the 5-6 year renewal period because of the two aspects of environmental protection and machine age, and the renewal demand ensures the sustainability of the growth; third, the export continues to grow, especially the dragon. The export proportion of head enterprises is significantly higher than that of industrial exports; fourth, leading enterprises have benefited from report recovery, industry competition pattern optimization and huge profit elasticity.
