Core combination: Sany, lead intelligence, Zhejiang Dingli, new joint-stock, Hengli hydraulic, Hongya numerical control, North Huachang key combination: Xugong machinery, Jack shares, nunli shares, crystal Sheng Electromechanical, Chang Chuan science and technology, Pu Tailai, Rong Tai Jiankang, Jerry shares, Nanxing equipment, win he technology, Tian Qi stock, Iran Chi MI, CIMC and China Zhongqi, it is recommended to pay attention to Mitutoyo intelligence, construction machinery, Haitian International.
Index and valuation this week: June 11th -6 15, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.7%, the machinery industry index fell 3.8%. The PE valuation of CITIC machinery industry digested to its lowest level in nearly five years, 39.7 last week and 36.8 this week.
This week's topic: Sany is recommended, asset quality improvement + competitiveness improved significantly. 1) in 2018, the sales volume of excavators will exceed 170 thousand units, an increase of over 20% over the same period. The proportion of the company's excavator market is up by more than 2 percentage points compared with 2016. In 2018, the proportion of the company will be rising, the proportion of export is expected to increase; 2) the whole industry of concrete equipment two mobile stock has a low historical position, the crane is also very tight, the construction and sale of concrete machinery are lagging behind the excavator; 3) the global sales network is being perfected, international network is being perfected, international network is being perfected, international sales network is being perfected, international network is being perfected. As a long-term strategy for the future, it should be accompanied by a sustainable development of the "one road" strategy in the future. The company's overseas revenue ratio has increased from 20% in 2009 to 41% in 2016, the future is expected to rise to 50%, and the core competitiveness of the leading enterprises has been significantly improved; 4) it is necessary to emphasize that the whole industry of engineering machinery is a small disturbed plate under the trade war. The net profit of our Forecast Ltd in the past 2018-2019 years is 4 billion 520 million and 5 billion 630 million respectively, and EPS is 0.59 yuan and 0.73 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Overview of investment opportunities:
Construction machinery: excavators start flat in May, and sales increase or exceed 55% in June. 18~19 sales are expected to exceed 175 thousand and 185 thousand units. The main demand is the arrival of the equipment renewal cycle, the high level of infrastructure construction and the exuberant demand for commodity mining. 1~4 month domestic sales (excluding exports), domestic, Japanese, European and American and Korean brand market accounted for 54.3%, 17.2%, 15.9% and 12.3%, the domestic share continued to remain above 50%, the concentration of further enhanced CR4=56.2, CR8=78.7. The core components such as high end hydraulic parts are out of stock, and the price of domestic hydraulic parts is rising, and the mainframe factory with big sales has the advantage in the parts and spare parts.
Key recommendations: Sany, Hengli hydraulic, Zhejiang Dingli, Xugong machinery.
New energy vehicles and lithium battery equipment: net car can not be ignored as a new energy demand, will strongly support A-class car sales. Network car market pattern has experienced a process from the oligarchy to the tripartite tripartite to the dug of dust. By the end of Q2 in 2017, a single big trip took over 90% of the market share in the special car market. According to our calculation, the future network car will be an important demand for the new energy a and above models, assuming that the 2018-2020 year drop in the network about the car platform is 90%, 85% and 80% respectively, then the new energy network in the next three years is 333 thousand, 471 thousand and 62.5 respectively, and the growth rate is 17.95% and 41.18 in the last year. % and 32.81% will account for 81.25%, 62.03% and 53.67% respectively. Considering the strong rise of the Cao Cao car platform, the market demand for future special cars and luxury cars will provide solid support to the sales of new energy vehicles in the future. Key recommendations: leading intelligence, nulli shares, beneficiary targets: Tianqi shares, Pu Tailai, win win technology and so on.
Semiconductor equipment: SEMI releases the forecast report of the global wafer plant. It is expected that the 2018-2019 year semiconductor equipment expenditure will increase by 14%/9% to $637.3/694.6 billion, achieving four years of growth and high innovation. According to the data previously released, 2018Q1 global semiconductor equipment expenditure was $17 billion, an increase of 30% over the same period, and is expected to remain in the future. There are two main reasons for the high speed growth: first, the soaring storage price has led Samsung's huge investment. At the same time, Samsung will expand the investment of the wafer producer and increase the 7Nm capacity layout of EUV; two, the size of China's crystal factory is considerable, and most of them will be realized by the end of the year, and the demand for equipment is huge in the next two years. Key recommendations: North Huachang, Chang Chuan technology, crystal Sheng Electromechanical.
Smart equipment: domestic industrial robots in May achieved 36% growth, one of the few high field areas. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in June 14th, the output of industrial robots in China was 13659 (Taiwan / set) in May, achieving a 36% high growth rate. The industry robot industry continues to maintain a high degree of vitality. In recent years, the industry has maintained a relatively high growth rate. In the first half of May this year, the output of industrial robots increased by 34%. Industrial robot still has huge space, development driving force is 1) industry penetration enhancement, taking automobile industry as an example, the density of industrial robot in automobile industry is only half of developed countries, still has a lot of promotion space; 2) industry scope expansion, from automobile and consumer electronics to lithium electric, semiconductor, medicine, food, household electrical appliances and so on The region has expanded rapidly; 3) regional expansion, the rapid development of industrial robots at present is the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, and began to speed up the popularity of the Bohai region and the inland areas, represented by Chongqing. According to the latest forecast of IFR, by 2020, China's sales will reach 210 thousand units, up by 24% over the same period, and it will still be the most active area in the global industrial robot industry. It is suggested that attention should be paid to Ethan, Zhong De De De, Tuo Shi Da, double ring transmission and so on.
Oil equipment: OPEC production is not up to market expectations, crude oil prices are soaring, and investment opportunities for oil services under high oil prices are emphasized. We believe that oil prices will remain high throughout the year in the context of increased US oil exports and geopolitical tensions. The price of oil directly determines the profit space of the oil company, the operation of the oil company directly determines the capital expenditure, and then determines the performance of the oil company. With the increasing manufacturing level of special parts of oil and gas equipment, domestic suppliers have strong cost performance advantages. In the past ten years, China's oil clothing company has actively "gone out" and quickly occupied the overseas market. The vast majority of oil service enterprises have been steadily improving the overseas revenue ratio, and will be able to gain a larger market share in the future.
Risk warning: upstream resource goods fell, company performance was not up to expectations, infrastructure investment fell sharply.
