Ms. Feng Guiying, standing vice president of the agency working committee of China Engineering Machinery Industry Association, made an analysis of the development trend in the circulation field of China's engineering machinery industry.
China's economy will gradually "return to nature"
"Back to nature": the fall of the old kinetic energy. After the financial crisis, the "old kinetic energy" represented by real estate and infrastructure is supporting the economy, as well as the problems of overcapacity, the rise of all social leverage, and the increase of debt risk.
From the current point of view, there are two important changes in the environment in the coming years. On the one hand, the demand for "steady growth" in the policy goal will be weakened, on the other hand, the policy goals will be raised for "deleveraging, risk prevention" and other appeals. "Return to truth": the promotion of new kinetic energy. Since 2017, there have been some new changes in the economic structure, for example, in the industry, equipment manufacturing, high and new technology industries, and other industries that represent the direction of industrial upgrading in the investment, production and other aspects of the performance. The upgrading of these new kinetic energy will be the mainstay of the future economy. After many years of sharp decline in manufacturing investment, real estate investment and consumption growth, the decline has narrowed significantly, and the withdrawal of the future "old kinetic energy" will be a slow and controllable state.
It is expected that the growth rate of GDP in 2018 is around 6.6%. From the trend, the four quarter showed the trend of "U".
Favorable opportunities for the development of China's construction machinery industry
Based on the cooperation framework of "one area and one road", cooperation deepened in the areas of trade unimpeded and facilities Unicom, it is expected to further expand the economic growth energy of economic growth from the "along the road". In terms of facilities Unicom, the area along the road is an important area of China's overseas infrastructure construction. In recent years, nearly half of the contract quantity, contract amount, turnover and the number of expatriate personnel are distributed along the "one road".
Xiong an new area will bring hundreds of millions of demands for construction machinery. The overall planning of the Xiong an new area is basically completed. In terms of area and population, Xiong an new area is planned to be developed first in a specific starting area. The area of the initial area is about 100 square kilometers, the initial population is about 1 million people, the area of the mid-term Development Area is about 200 square kilometers, the area of the forward control area is about 2000 square kilometers, and the population plan is planned. It is limited to about 2 million -250 million people. From the scale of investment, the total investment of Tianjin Binhai New Area, which was set up in 2009, was over 1 trillion yuan per year. By 2017, the total investment was over 10 trillion yuan, and the amount of investment in Xiong 'an new area was also expected to be in this order of magnitude.
According to Xiong an new area, the demand for construction machinery in the construction of municipal road network is 8%, and the proportion of the demand for construction machinery in real estate investment is 5%, and at least hundreds of billions of engineering machinery demand is brought in Xiong an new area.
Industry investment closely related to construction machinery industry
In 2018, the growth target of fixed assets investment in each region is mainly adjusted, but the amount of investment is still high. In the medium term, the urbanization under the construction of infrastructure construction will still be an important support for the demand of China's construction machinery.
In 1-4 months of 2018, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 154358 billion yuan, an increase of 7% over the same period last year. From the aspect of the chain ratio, fixed asset investment (excluding households) increased by 0.52% in April. Among them, investment in civilian fixed assets was 95449 billion yuan, up 8.4% over the same period last year.
Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) increased by 12.4% over the same period last year. Among them, the investment in water management industry increased by 5.8%, the investment in public facilities management increased by 10.8%, the investment in road transportation increased by 18.2%, the investment in railway transportation was 8.9%, and the decline was 3.8 percentage points.
In the region, the investment in the eastern region increased by 5.7%, the investment in the central region increased by 9.8%, the investment in the western region increased by 7.2%, the investment in the northeast region was 3.4%, and the growth rate increased by 2 percentage points.
China's construction machinery circulation market monitoring and feedback front-line survey results
In May 2018, China's construction machinery market index was higher than the average of the previous May, and continued to expand steadily, showing that the domestic construction machinery market remained in a high boom interval. In May before 2018, the overdue rate of the repayments of all regional users had improved significantly, compared with the same period of 30%~70% in the same period of last year.
In 2015, the average monthly utilization of China's excavator market monitoring data was 119.03 per month, 127.16 hours in 2016, 133.86 hours in 2017 and 97.8 hours in 2016 1-3 months, 104.9 hours in 1-3 months 2017, and 1-3 months in 2018, with an average of 96.9 hours, close to the level of 2016.
Before 2012, the order source of the Chinese excavator market mainly originated from the mining of mining raw materials and the construction engineering of the real estate industry. Both of them accounted for more than 70% of the order sources of the whole downstream demand industry, and the source of the two has been greatly transformed, and the construction of new rural villages and the construction of municipal infrastructure have become the medium. New important source of orders for the national excavator market.
China engineering machinery market China engineering machinery users group in the first quarter and 2018 purchasing tendency survey, the three most important factors: product, stable performance, less malfunction, oil consumption; after-sales service, after-sales service in time, convenient maintenance, price, price performance is still the core factor of most users. In addition, the service factors, such as maintenance training and technical support, are also the key factors of the user connection strength and service viscosity. These details of the service field are the core strategy of the strong brand and the agent playing the market, besides the price factors.
Through a questionnaire survey of nearly one hundred agents nationwide, the investigated agents believe that the supply of upstream supplies is insufficient, the sales and service human resources are short, the terminal price bottom line is constantly breaking and the vicious competition is aggravated, the sale Maori, the operation cost of the agent, the construction of the team and the market profit after the service are difficult to guarantee, In the new market environment, how to build a new profit model and risk management of accounts receivable is the most important problem that agents are concerned at present. These problems are all urgent to be solved by the manufacturers.
Thinking about the development of the future profit model of the agent
The needs of large customers have changed, which requires light assets and comprehensive packaging and maintenance services to ensure normal use. The proportion of individual users is decreasing and integrating. The increase of private enterprises means that the tax tickets and other links will become more and more standardized, and the market circulation will become more benign. Focus on customers and focus on equipment. The future market must be subdivided, professional and meticulous. We should focus on mining, researching and analyzing a few user groups, seeking their pain points and needs, so as to enhance their unique and unique core competitiveness.
Leasing business will break out in a few years, and agents should plan ahead. Leasing business is a full range of services, not only the complete set of equipment leasing, but also other equipment, personnel and solutions. In 2018, a new agent trend emerged: agent buyout system. Buy out the unsalable brand or the products that the agents have professional channels, which are more favorable in price. This must have strong risk control ability and financing channels. Another is to buy a rental at a preferential price, and manufacturers support them in parts and services. Capable and capable
The agent will go out of the country and do business along the country along the road.
The future development of China's construction machinery market
China's population is aging. With the slow growth of effective labor force, the proportion of machines replacing human beings is gradually improving. Population from rural to large cities, with the reform of land ownership in rural areas, homestead and other circulation accelerated, machinery and equipment to replace the traditional labor shortage. The old model is updated by environmental pressure. These factors will keep the total volume of construction machinery and equipment in a stable level in the future.
Feng Guiying forecasts the 2018 excavator market, which is expected to grow more than 30% year-on-year, and the profitability of major manufacturers and agent groups will continue to improve.
