Key points of investment:
Plate performance. In May, the national manufacturing industry PMI was 51.9%, up 0.5% from April, a new high since October last year, and also a new high since 2012, pointing to the recovery of the manufacturing industry. In the twenty-fifth week of 2018 (June 18, 2018 to June 22nd), the mechanical equipment industry was weaker than the large market, and the cumulative excess income was -2.55% in all industries. Since 2018, the machinery and equipment industry has been showing a downward trend, with a cumulative excess return of -11.40%.
We will continue to recommend the industrial chain of construction machinery and pay attention to the hedging effect of exchange rate depreciation on trade friction. The central bank announced a targeted reduction this week, although the direction of the "restructuring" policy still exists, but the market is expected to continue to improve its late monetary policy. Our previous report (June 10th "the economic data continues to be good, the proposed attention to engineering machinery," June 3rd "construction machinery peak and elongated domestic window", May 28th "microeconomic toughness, the investment value of the engineering machinery industry chain") hints that the demand and performance trend of the construction machinery industry chain are all good When valuations are digested to a lower level, and historical risk clears, net interest rate recovery + key product breakthroughs increase long-term growth space, the industrial chain has a strong investment value. Once the market has subtle changes in macro expectations, we think there will be better investment opportunities. In particular, the construction machinery leading company has experienced the test of the big cycle, the competitiveness and the innovation ability, the long-term market share is concentrated to the domestic brand and the head enterprise, and it has the investment value more. The main engine of the main engine is the main engine Sany and the component faucet of the constant hydraulic pressure, and the Liugong, the Xugong machinery, and the Ai Dijing Secret. In addition, the recent depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, breaking through the 6.5 key points, has leveled the appreciation of the 1Q, and we once again hint that 1Q, because of the appreciation of the exchange rate, has dragged larger companies on gross and financial costs (remittance losses), and the performance of 2Q may be collectively expected. We reckon that the gross profit rate is 30%, the net interest rate is 10%, the export accounts for 30% of the typical machinery companies. Under the 2% (average) rate of exchange rate depreciation (average), the increase in net profit is about 5%, and if the foreign exchange funds are large, the exchange earnings will be larger. On the other hand, the increased trade friction between China and the United States has a negative or potential negative impact on the machinery companies with strong export competitiveness, and the depreciation of the exchange rate will also form hedging, focusing on the constant hydraulic, Zhejiang and no shares. Finally, the short-term adjustment of the market is more, we continue to emphasize the high visibility of mid term performance, the growth logic smooth and smooth growth stocks, continue to recommend the Japanese machine seal, Hongya numerical control.
In 2018, the first batch of EMU tenders landed, and all of them were Fuxing. In June 15th, the China Railway Investment Corp issued a tender announcement to bid for the 145 standard column of the 350km/h "revival number" EMU, including 50 trains (16 units) in the long series and 45 columns of standard marshalling trains (8 groups). Our overall point of view is neutral, the first batch of cars landing, the next three years are full of car mileage, the demand for new cars is large. In view of the market's worries about infrastructure leveraging and the anticipated repression of the investment plan at the beginning of the year, we remain neutral for the time being and closely follow the changes in policy and tendering.
OLED panel shipment growth, mainland investment intensity is not reduced, panel equipment still has much room. According to Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) data, 2018Q1, 2018Q1, OLED overall sales amounted to $5 billion 900 million, a year-on-year increase of 39%, and the annual revenue is expected to reach $26 billion 950 million, and the market share of the city is ranked third in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 425%. In addition, according to the latest TrendForce photoelectric research (WitsView) observation, the global small size AMOLED panel capacity continues to expand, the medium and small size AMOLED panel production area is expected to be 13 million 600 thousand square meters in 2018, up 51.1% from the same period, and the manufacturers of the mainland manufacturers, such as Beijing East, Tianma, veraco and Huaxing optoelectronic, are all being implemented. The capacity expansion plan is still high in investment heat. We believe that under this background, the localization rate of OLED equipment is expected to continue to improve, and we should pay close attention to equipment, precision electronics and Zhi Yun shares.
This week, the key targets are: Sany, Hengli hydraulic, Japanese machine seals, Zhejiang Dingli, Hongya CNC, Hangzhou oxygen shares, and NLI shares.
Sany: the strong recovery of high hairy excavators and pumps, the rapid promotion of market share, the engineering machinery is the most benefited from the "one road" of the leading enterprises. Hengli hydraulic: 1Q18 excavator monthly sales growth, providing new growth for the company's new products and new market business. The Japanese machine seals: the domestic mechanical hydraulic seal faucet, the benefit private large-scale refinery's production plan, is expected to become the seal piece platform enterprise. Zhejiang Dingli: the market of aerial work platform is still in a period of heavy volume. As a leading company, it is expected to enter the new product launch cycle in 18-19 years. Hongya CNC: domestic plate furniture leading enterprises, excellent management, strategic positioning clear, continuous product upgrading and product chain expansion, has basically covered the whole chain of plate furniture production, performance is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth. Hangzhou oxygen shares: downstream metallurgy and chemical industry is obvious, oil refining and coal chemical industry to provide strong demand increment, gas price elasticity is big. NLI shares: the forklift industry boom has continued to grow, and the volume of logistics automation business has increased.
It is suggested that the pool should be paid attention to: the share of the current, the precision measurement of electronic, crystal Sheng mechatronics, Zhonghe technology, China Iron shares, Shandong Weida, China iron industry, Zhengzhou coal machine, construction machinery, equipment, meya optoelectronic, East China heavy machine, China middle car, Zhongji group, Connie mechatronics, express shares, IRIC, Anhui joint force.
Risk warning: fixed asset investment downside, exchange risk, and expansion of overseas competitors.
