Summary of the report
Core combination: Sany, Jerry shares, pilot intelligence, Zhejiang Dingli, new building shares, Hengli hydraulic, Hong Ya CNC, and Hua test.
Key combination: Xugong machinery, Jack stock, nunli stock, crystal Sein mechatronics, northern Huachang, Chang Chuan science and technology, Pu Tailai, RongTai health, Jerry stock, Nanxing equipment, win in science and technology, Tianqi stock, IRIC, Zhongji group, China middle car, construction machinery.
Index and valuation this week: June 25th -6 29, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 2.7%, the machinery industry index rose 2.2%. The PE valuation of CITIC machinery industry has been digested to a low level in the past five years, 36.8 last week and 37.6 this week.
This week's topic: how does the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate affect manufacturing enterprises? Since June 12th, the RMB exchange rate has obviously depreciated. In June 29th, the yuan closed 6.6246 against the US dollar. The yuan has depreciated against the US dollar by about 1.97% since the beginning of this year. The main reasons are as follows: first, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and the US dollar is strong; second, the domestic monetary liquidity is loose and the central bank is targeted.
Devaluation of the renminbi affects the balance sheet and profit statement of enterprises through various ways, which is good for enterprises with large export business and bad debts to the US dollar. Therefore, home appliances, machinery, textile and garment industry gross profit margin is expected to rise. Nonferrous metals, petrochemical industry and aviation industry are expected to be affected. The overseas market income of machinery industry is relatively large, Sany, Liugong, Zhejiang, Hengli hydraulic and giant star technology and other companies account for more than the average value of the industry, the exchange rate is expected to bring profits to these enterprises.
Overview of investment opportunities:
Construction machinery: the quality of high-quality leading assets is constantly optimized, and the demand for industry continues to be high. In June, the sales of excavators are expected to reach 14 thousand units. 18~19 sales are expected to exceed 190 thousand and 200 thousand units. Different categories of equipment are updated and updated periodically. The construction of infrastructure is maintained high and the demand for commodities is exuberant. The share of domestic excavators increased to 55% in 1~5 months, and the concentration degree further increased CR4=55 and CR8=78. After the balance sheet was repaired, the profit release was accelerated, and the quality of key leading companies' assets continued to improve. Key recommendations: Sany, Hengli hydraulic, Zhejiang Dingli, Xugong machinery.
Oil service equipment: the price of crude oil is skyrocketing and the investment opportunities for oil service under high oil prices are emphasized. In June 29th, Brent crude oil prices approached a new high, we believe that in the United States, oil exports and geopolitical tensions in the United States, oil prices will remain high throughout the year. The price of oil directly determines the profit margin of oil companies, and further determines the performance of oil companies. With the increasing manufacturing level of special parts of oil and gas equipment, domestic suppliers have strong cost performance advantages. In the past ten years, China's oil clothing company has actively "gone out" and quickly occupied the overseas market. The vast majority of oil service enterprises have been steadily improving the overseas revenue ratio, and will be able to gain a larger market share in the future.
New energy vehicles and lithium battery equipment: net car can not be ignored as a new energy demand, will strongly support A-class car sales. Network car market pattern has experienced a process from the oligarchy to the tripartite tripartite to the dug of dust. By the end of Q2 in 2017, a single big trip took over 90% of the market share in the special car market. According to our calculation, the future network car will be an important demand for new energy a and above models, assuming that the 2018-2020 years' occupation rate of the net car platform is 90%, 85% and 80% respectively, then the new energy network in the next three years is 333 thousand, 471 thousand and 62.5 respectively, respectively 17.95%, 41.18% and 3. 2.81%, the proportion of Grade A and above vehicles will reach 81.25%, 62.03% and 53.67% respectively. Taking into account the strong rise of Cao Cao's special car and other network platforms, the market demand of future special vehicles will provide solid support for the sales of new energy vehicles in the future. Key recommendations: leading intelligence, nulli shares, beneficiary targets: Tianqi shares, Pu Tailai, win win technology and so on.
Semiconductor equipment: SEMI releases the forecast report of the global wafer plant. It is expected that the 2018-2019 year semiconductor equipment expenditure will increase by 14%/9% to $637.3/694.6 billion, achieving four years of growth and high innovation. According to the data previously released, 2018Q1 global semiconductor equipment expenditure was $17 billion, an increase of 30% over the same period, and is expected to remain in the future. There are two main reasons for the high speed growth: first, the soaring storage price has led Samsung's huge investment. At the same time, Samsung will expand the investment of the wafer producer and increase the 7Nm capacity layout of EUV; two, the size of China's crystal factory is considerable, and most of them will be realized by the end of the year, and the demand for equipment is huge in the next two years. Key recommendations: North Huachang, Chang Chuan technology, crystal Sheng Electromechanical.
Smart equipment: domestic industrial robots in May achieved 36% growth, one of the few high field areas. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in June 14th, the output of industrial robots in China was 13659 (Taiwan / set) in May, achieving a 36% high growth rate. The industry robot industry continues to maintain a high degree of vitality. In recent years, the industry has maintained a relatively high growth rate. In the first half of May this year, the output of industrial robots increased by 34%. Industrial robot still has huge space, development driving force is 1) industry penetration enhancement, taking automobile industry as an example, the density of industrial robot in automobile industry is only half of developed countries, still has a lot of promotion space; 2) industry scope expansion, from automobile and consumer electronics to lithium electric, semiconductor, medicine, food, household electrical appliances and so on The region has expanded rapidly; 3) regional expansion, the rapid development of industrial robots at present is the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, and began to speed up the popularity of the Bohai region and the inland areas, represented by Chongqing. According to the latest forecast of IFR, by 2020, China's sales will reach 210 thousand units, up by 24% over the same period, and it will still be the most active area in the global industrial robot industry. It is suggested that attention should be paid to Ethan, Zhong De De De, Tuo Shi Da, double ring transmission and so on.
Risk warning: upstream resource goods fell, company performance was not up to expectations, infrastructure investment fell sharply.
Text of the report
1. this week's topic: how does the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate affect manufacturing enterprises?
1.1. dollar strengthened and PBC's directional reduction led to depreciation of RMB
Since June 12th, the RMB exchange rate has obviously depreciated. As of June 29th, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.6246, and the accumulated value of the RMB was more than 1000 basis points in one week. The yuan has depreciated about 1.97% against the US dollar since the beginning of this year.
We believe there are two main reasons for the depreciation of the renminbi. The first is that the dollar has been strong in the near future. In June 14, 2018, the decision of the US Federal Reserve June Conference on interest rates was approved by 8:0's vote and decided to raise the target rate range of the federal funds to 1.75%-2.0%. The US dollar index is a comprehensive index reflecting the exchange rate of the US dollar in the international foreign exchange market. It is used to measure the degree of exchange rate change of US dollar to a basket of currencies. The US dollar index has risen significantly in recent times, breaking through the 95 pass in June 27th, reaching 95.3728, the highest since July 12, 2017.
The rise in the US dollar index is due to an increase in risk aversion caused by strong economic growth and trade wars in the US. The US economic data has been excellent since this year. In the first quarter, GDP growth in the US rose from 2.6% to 2.8%. President Trump also announced that the US GDP growth rate will increase further in the two quarter, which is expected to be close to 4%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the United States hit a new low of eighteen years. At the same time, trade conflicts between China and the United States and the United States and Europe, the market prospects are unclear, the risk of risk rise, as the world's most widely used currency in the United States dollar also appreciates.
The second reason for the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is the easing of domestic monetary liquidity and the direction of the central bank. In June 24, 2018, the central bank announced the third directional reduction in the year. Since July 5th, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of state-owned large commercial banks has been reduced by 0.5 percentage points. Compared to the April 25th directional drop net release fund of nearly 400 billion yuan, the amount of funds released by the quasi targeted reduction has increased significantly, reaching about 700 billion yuan. China's monetary policy tends to be more neutral and loose, and the deviation of the US and China's monetary policy makes the RMB depreciate.
The effect of 1.2. depreciation of RMB on Enterprise Performance
There are many ways of the effect of RMB devaluation on enterprise performance. The main ways of transmission are as follows: first, for the more export business, the industry and enterprises to undertake dollar orders can improve the gross interest rate; second, for the industry and enterprises with more foreign debt, the exchange loss becomes larger. Depreciation of the renminbi will affect the balance sheet and profit statement of enterprises through various ways.
The export business is more, the overseas income is higher, the exchange loss can be offset by the foreign currency income, while the depreciation of the RMB can effectively stimulate the export and enhance the competitive advantage of these industries. The data show that in 2017, the overseas income of household appliances, machinery, textile and clothing, electronics, aviation and other industries accounted for more than 20%, of which the proportion of the overseas income of the electronics and aviation industry was more than 40%. For the household appliances and machinery industry, the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to the increase of the gross interest rate in the industry because of the little burden on the dollar and the relatively high ratio of overseas income.
When the dollar has more liabilities, when the RMB depreciates, the exchange losses become larger and the performance of enterprises is affected. The exchange loss refers to the difference between the bank's buying and selling price and the exchange rate used by bookkeeping. According to Wan de data, US dollar loans in China's nonferrous metals, petrochemical and electronic industries accounted for a higher proportion of total industry liabilities in 2017. Among them, the electronic component industry accounted for 10.4% of the US dollar loan, and the non-ferrous metals and petrochemical industry also reached 6.1% and 8.1% respectively. At the same time, the proportion of the three trade dollar loans to all the listed companies is also larger, so the performance of the three industries will be affected by the depreciation of the RMB.
The US dollar loans in the aviation industry declined rapidly. According to the data of Wan De, the proportion of US dollar loans in the aviation industry dropped from 30% in 2014 to 4.7% in 2017. However, as one of the main ways Airlines purchase aircraft is financing lease, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate also has a direct impact on the performance of aviation enterprises.
To sum up, exchange rate fluctuations are mainly conducted in three aspects: income, gross profit margin and exchange gains and losses. From the point of view of revenue, it is directly related to income at different time points that correspond to different spot rates. At the same time, because of the change of procurement cost, the number of overseas customers signing orders will be affected, and the income recognition will be indirectly affected. From the perspective of the gross interest rate, the income confirmed at different points has different immediate exchange rates, which leads to the change in the price of entry, thus affecting the gross interest rate in the case of constant manufacturing costs. From the point of view of remittance and loss, the foreign currency assets held by an enterprise are different from the exchange rate corresponding to the account and the balance sheet date, so the possibility of producing remittance and losses is faced before the settlement of the foreign currency.
1.3. devaluation increases machinery industry overseas market revenue
Machinery industry overseas market income accounted for a relatively large proportion. According to Wan de data, the overall overseas market income of machinery industry accounted for 20% in 2017. On the one hand, the devaluation of the RMB can stimulate the increase of orders in overseas markets, and on the other hand, it can contribute to profits in the form of exchange gains and losses. Therefore, it is a good thing for some manufacturing enterprises with relatively high export.
According to the data, five listed companies with the highest proportion of overseas business income in 2017 are Yonghe intelligent control, Jun he shares, Hebei propaganda, giant star science and technology, and backbone technology, and the score is 98.1%, 97.2%, 96.6%, 96.2% and 89. .6%.
Some of the major listed companies in the machinery industry also have relatively high overseas market revenues. According to the data, the 2017 Sany overseas market income ratio is 30.3%, Liugong is 21.6%, Zhejiang is 62.4%, the constant force hydraulic pressure is 22.9%, the giant star technology is 96.2%, the overseas market income of these companies is more than the average proportion of the machinery industry 20%.
2. updates of the important views of this week
2.1. semiconductor equipment: industry investment opportunities from SEMI's latest Semiconductor Forecast
Semiconductor equipment spending will increase for four consecutive years, and Samsung investment and the Chinese market will become the main driving force. SEMI announced the global wafer plant forecast report, which is expected to increase 14%/9% to $637.3/694.6 billion in 2018-2019 years, achieving four years of growth and high innovation. According to the data previously released, 2018Q1 global semiconductor equipment expenditure was $17 billion, an increase of 30% over the same period, and is expected to remain in the future. SEMI believes that there are two main reasons for the high speed growth: one is that the surge in memory prices will lead Samsung's huge investment, and Samsung will expand the investment in wafer generation and increase the 7Nm capacity layout of EUV; two is the size of China's crystal factory, and most of them will be produced by the end of 2019, and the next two years will be equipment The demand is huge. From the downstream demand, mobile terminals represented by smartphones, 4K video, and applications that require a large scale of computing (artificial intelligence and smart cars) will also promote the continuous growth of equipment demand.
The localization process will bring broad market space, and domestic equipment manufacturers will fully benefit. SEMI predicts that China's equipment expenditure will increase by 65%/57% over the same period in 2018-2019 years. Among them, the investment amount of foreign investment is 58% and 56%, the amount of local investment is 42% and 44%, and the foreign firms are mainly Intel (Intel), SK helix, TZC, Samsung and GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GLOBALFOUNDRIES), while domestic manufacturers are such as long Jiang Cunchu, Fujian Jin Hua, Hua Li and Hefei long. Xin and so on are going to make a big investment. 2018Q1 China semiconductor equipment expenditure is 2 billion 640 million US dollars, an increase of 38% over the same period. With the continuous start of the wafer plant, it is expected that the growth will be further increased in the second half of the year.
"National Semiconductor Industry Development Program" points out that in 2020, China's IC output value will reach 871 billion yuan, wafer generation to achieve 16/14nm production, sealing technology to reach the international large factory level; "China manufacturing 2025" also proposed that in 2025, China's 12 inch wafer capacity will reach 1 million / month, and realize the 14nm process into the production. According to BASF forecast, in 2019, Chinese mainland chip manufacturers will realize the 14nm process technology and reach the level of 7-10nm in 2020 to quickly catch up with the top international technological level. Because of the high barriers in the semiconductor industry, we believe that domestic manufacturers will benefit from the national strategic support and the broad market space of the equipment market. In addition, considering the stimulating influence brought by ZTE's events, the localization of semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate, and domestic manufacturers will also fully enjoy the bonus of development.
Investment recommendations: (1) northern Huachang: the company is a domestic semiconductor equipment leading, in addition to photolithography, ion injection equipment to cover the key parts of the semiconductor manufacturing industry equipment, a part of the semiconductor equipment has successfully entered the 28nm production line of Central International, and realized initial production; the company was also in August last year. Purchase silicon wafer cleaning equipment company Akrion, actively expand the overseas market business capability; (2) Chang Chuan science and technology: the company is the domestic testing equipment leading, and pay attention to R & D investment, the R & D cost in 2017 is 37 million yuan, accounting for 20.5% of the revenue, which will help to improve the technical advantage. At the same time, the company has actively expanded its focus, and customers have formed a good cooperative relationship with the advanced technology, such as long power technology, Alex Hua Tian technology, Tongfu micro electricity, and so on, and deeply bind the domestic faucet, and will help step into the rapid growth channel.
2.2. lithium power industry: high-end car market, new energy A-class car's real demand
From barbarism to strictest regulation, the market is gradually moving towards standardization. Since July 2016, the relevant regulatory policies have speeded up a dense network of vehicle management measures, which clearly defined the legal status of the car, and in the long run, the car market has accelerated to the direction of standardization and maturity. At present, there are dribs and drabs in the market, including American cars, Shenzhou special cars, Cao Cao special cars, ticks, etc. With the in-depth development of the major platform businesses, on the one hand, the entry threshold is gradually improving, and the entry conditions for vehicles and vehicle owners are becoming increasingly stringent. On the other hand, business development is gradually moving closer to a variety of services, such as taxi, luxury car & luxury car, car, chartered car, feeder, car rental, driving, and so on. The service demand of special car, luxury car, chartered car and feeder is expected to improve.
Three advantages to build moat, the new energy network cost advantages of the car. After strict supervision and improvement of the access threshold, we believe that the adoption of new energy vehicles is an effective way. The main reasons include: 1) exemption from vehicle purchase tax. The period of tax exemption for new energy vehicles was extended to December 31, 2020. At present, most of the class A and B class cars were priced at 15-30 million yuan, and 10% of the vehicle purchase tax was about $1.5~3 million, and the purchase of vehicles was reduced. 2) Beijing, Shanghai and other limited cities give license plates, saving auction or "Yaohao" waiting time and large capital expenditures. According to the data of the association, since 2017, the price of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou has been rising steadily, and it has been kept high in the first four months of 2018. 3) the cost of daily operation is relatively low. Taking the passenger car of ordinary 1.8T displacement as an example, the fuel consumption of 100 kilometers is about 9L, the corresponding cost is about 66.42 yuan -70.65 yuan, and the fuel consumption of the new energy passenger car is about 16 kilowatt hours, which is calculated by 1 yuan per kilowatt per kilowatt hour in accordance with the industrial power of Shanghai, and the corresponding cost is only 16-20 yuan. Especially in the era of high oil prices, the operating costs of fuel vehicles are gradually improving, which may lead to the sale of new energy vehicles.
Net car market, can not be ignored the new energy A-class vehicle demand. First, the structure of the new energy passenger car is facing adjustment, the economy is the key factor after the subsidy. At present, the car enterprise has been prepared, and a number of a and A0 class models are ready to be sent. Secondly, the main city's net new car requires the body to directly match the grade A and above. In the future, the improvement of the penetration of the vehicles will effectively drive the sales of new energy A-class passenger cars. Furthermore, from the model planning, the pricing of a number of new models is close to the middle grade fuel vehicles, and the parameters are in line with the requirements of the new policies of local networks. The good economy and applicability will lay a solid foundation for the sale of such models in the second half of the year.
At present, a number of network related vehicle platform planning, will effectively support A-class car sales. Network car market pattern has experienced a process from the oligarchy to the tripartite tripartite to the dug of dust. By the end of Q2 in 2017, a single big trip took over 90% of the market share in the special car market. According to our calculation, the future network car will be an important demand for new energy a and above models, assuming that the 2018-2020 years' occupation rate of the net car platform is 90%, 85% and 80% respectively, then the new energy network in the next three years is 333 thousand, 471 thousand and 62.5 respectively, respectively 17.95%, 41.18% and 3. 2.81%, the proportion of Grade A and above vehicles will reach 81.25%, 62.03% and 53.67% respectively. Considering the strong rise of the Cao Cao car platform, the market demand for future special cars and luxury cars will provide solid support to the sales of new energy vehicles in the future.
Investment recommendations: 1) the first push of China's domestic lithium battery leading intelligence, the company entered the CATL, Panasonic / Tesla, LG chemical supply chain of domestic equipment manufacturers, expected 18-20 years net profit of 1 billion 55 million, 1 billion 578 million and 1 billion 959 million yuan. 2) rear end logistics automation focus on Nuli (Zhong Ding), the subsidiary of Wuxi Zhong Ding in the post logistics automation link into the CATL, BYD, Panasonic, LG supply chain, technical level has been approved by leading enterprises, 2018-2020 years net profit is expected to be 2.26, 3.10, 393 million, EPS 1.18, 1.62, 2.05 yuan respectively; 3 Other beneficiary targets include Pu Tailai, Tianqi stock, win win technology, today international, and Ke Heng shares.
2.3. construction machinery: excavators start flat in May, and sales increase or exceed 55% in June.
In May, the sales volume of excavators was 19313 units and YoY+71.3%. It is estimated that the sales volume of excavators will reach 14 thousand in June, and the growth rate will exceed 55% over the same period. The sales volume in the two quarter is expected to exceed 70%. Due to the higher base in the three quarter of 2017, the growth rate will normally fall to 20~30%. Sales volume in 2018 and 2019 reached 190 thousand units and 200 thousand units respectively.
Construction Machinery Industry Association excavator branch announced the latest excavator sales: in May total of 19313 units, YoY+71.3%; of which 17780, YoY+69.6%, export (including Hong Kong and Macao) 1533, YoY+94.8%; dig 2435, YoY+59.7%, 20-30t 5012, YoY+90.3%, small dug (20t below) 10333, YoY+63.3%. 1-5 months accumulated 105935 units, YoY+60.2%, including 98727 domestic sales, YoY+57.7%, exports (including Hong Kong and Macao) 7208, YoY+103.6%.
According to the sales data of domestic excavators in the first five months (including import and export), the market share of domestic, Japanese, European, American and Korean brands are 54.3%, 17.2%, 15.9% and 12.3% respectively. The domestic division continues to maintain more than 50%, 31, Caterpillar and Xugong occupy the top three in the domestic market. The concentration of 1~5 is further promoted to CR4=55 and CR8=78. The main reason for the promotion is to consolidate the advantages of quality, channel, after sale and research and development, and the shortage of the core components such as hydraulic parts bring the advantage of the supplier.
The main demand sources of engineering machinery are: 1) large, medium and small excavators, and the dislocation of the renewal cycle of the pump truck and truck crane, and gradually promote the renewal and lengthening cycle. 2) the amount of fixed investment in the country continued to grow. Among them, the proportion of capital construction investment has gradually increased, industrial investment has been restored, and real estate investment has been stable. The sales volume of the corresponding construction machinery, especially the middle dig, will continue to grow. 3) three of the main source of demand for construction machinery is that the price of bulk commodities and major raw materials continues to rise, bringing the mining and excavation capacity to a high level. In addition, the control of explosives in China has been strengthened year by year, resulting in a large number of blasting work done by the large excavator + heavy crushing hammer. To sum up, from the sales volume of different types of aircraft, the growth rate of big dig is obviously higher than that of small dig, which indicates that the growth rate of real estate / Infrastructure / mine starts higher.
Key recommendations: Sany, Hengli hydraulic, Zhejiang Dingli, Xugong machinery; focus: Addie precision, Liugong.
Recommendation reasons: high demand, high concentration and high income growth. Balance sheet repair, industry leading performance accelerated. The time and space mismatch of demand and different types of construction machinery will gradually push the replacement.
2.4. intelligent equipment: the number of industrial robots increased by 36% in China in May, the few high field areas.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in June 14th, the output of industrial robots in China was 13659 (Taiwan / set) in May, achieving a 36% high growth rate. The industry robot industry continues to maintain a high degree of vitality. In recent years, the industry has maintained a relatively high growth rate. In the first half of May this year, the output of industrial robots increased by 34%.
China's robot density is far below the world average level, and the potential space is huge. Take the automobile industry as an example, according to IFR statistics, in 2016, the density of industrial robots in China's auto industry is only 505 units per 10000 workers, while the density of robots in Japan, the United States, Germany, Italy and other countries is generally higher than the level of 1000 / 000 workers, which is two times that of our country. Considering that the automobile industry is the earliest industry to promote and infiltrate industry, the popularity of robots in other industries may even be lower.
China's robot industry alliance points out that the most concentrated distribution of machines in the region is the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta. Among them, the Pearl River Delta is represented by Guangzhou and Foshan, and the application of industrial robots is very large; the Yangtze River Delta, represented by Shanghai and Jiangsu, has a layout of the giant robot made by the robot. At present, there are two regions with great potential, one is the rapid development of industrial robots in the region of Bohai, Liaoning and Tangshan, and the other is the inland area represented by Chongqing. According to the latest IFR forecast, by 2020, the global industrial robot sales will reach 521 thousand, of which China's sales will reach 210 thousand, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24%, and will still be the most active area in the global industrial robot industry.
2.5. oil service industry: OPEC production is not up to market expectations, crude oil prices are soaring, and investment opportunities for oil services under high oil prices are emphasized.
OPEC and other major oil producers held a meeting in Vienna last Friday. They decided to increase production by about 1 million barrels per day from July. The increase was first lower than the consensus expectations of analysts from the market before the market, and analysts expected OPEC to increase the output by 1 million 800 thousand barrels a day before the meeting; secondly, due to the recent decline in oil countries such as Venezuela, Libya and Angola, and the implementation of the economic tailor to Iran in the United States, Iran's oil output was limited and the actual increment was limited. It may be only 770 thousand barrels. Therefore, the market is interpreted as a signal to the oil price trend.
At the beginning of the year, we predicted that the oil price in 2018 would be in the range of 65-75 US dollars / barrel, and the main reason was political factor rather than demand factor. The main catalytic factors for the rise in oil prices include: 1) the United States is becoming a crude oil exporter from the crude oil importing country. The rise in oil prices is in line with its fundamental interests, so the United States has withdrawn from the Iraq nuclear agreement, the Syria and other ways to make the international situation tense, propel the oil price to rise; 2) Saudi Arabia has planned to go public, and the Saudi government intends to oil the oil. Prices remain at a high level; 3) the idle capacity of major oil producing countries is at a low level and there is little room for short-term release.
With the sustained release of shale oil in the United States in 2017 and the completion of infrastructure such as pipeline ports, the volume of American crude exports has risen substantially, and the daily export volume is about 6 million barrels per day, far higher than the average of 4 million 500 thousand barrels per day before. According to the EIA weekly report, the net exports of crude oil in the United States reached 1 million 600 thousand barrels per day in March 2018, a 14% increase compared with the last month, and the increment of crude oil export increased mainly to Asia and Europe.
Under certain technical conditions and the difficulty of mining, the price of oil directly determines the profit space of the oil company. The recovery of oil price makes the performance elasticity of all kinds of oil and oil and gas service companies greatly released. The operation of oil companies directly determines capital expenditure, which determines the performance of oil companies.
With the rapid development of oil and gas equipment manufacturing industry in China, the production level of special parts of oil and gas equipment is increasing. With the help of low human resource cost, good technical level, perfect matching and higher product price ratio, the price of domestic suppliers has a strong competitive advantage. From the oil and gas industry chain, the business of the main related listed companies in China is combed. It is found that the business of our listed companies has covered the whole industry chain, mainly concentrating on various kinds of machinery and equipment, and providing not much system engineering technology service. In recent years, with the accumulation of previous large-scale project construction experience, China's oil and gas service companies have turned to integrated engineering technology services in recent years, such as the integration of oil and gas engineering, such as oil and gas, Hui Bo and Jerry, and the improvement of EPC engineering construction capability. Today, more than half of the revenues of many companies come from overseas businesses, which directly reflects the competitiveness of Chinese oil companies in the international market.
3. valuation tracking of machinery industry and key companies
Important information of the 4. industry
4.1. engineering machinery
(1) the Ministry of Communications issued a document that two million cars and three cars will be eliminated in two years.
At the conference, the Ministry of transportation established the three year action plan (2018-2020) of the new journey of building a well-off society in an all-round way to build a well-off society in an all-round way (2018-2020), and carried out a comprehensive deployment for the three years after the "13th Five-Year". Mao Jian, deputy inspector of the Department of comprehensive planning of the Ministry of transportation, said that the plan mainly includes 8 aspects, including 76 tasks, including deepening the structural reform of transportation supply side, building a modern transportation system with high quality, building a high level traffic innovation system, and demanding the construction of a traffic safety system.
The plan has made it clear that in improving the traffic infrastructure network, we will push forward the construction of comprehensive transportation infrastructure. By 2020, the mileage of high speed railway reaches 30 thousand kilometers, covering more than 80% of urban residents with more than 1 million permanent residents; the total mileage of the highway reaches 150 thousand kilometers, and the urban population is basically over 200 thousand cities. And the local administrative center; new coastal ports more than ten thousand tons of deep water berths more than 180; new and improved waterways about 2700 kilometers; civil aviation transportation airports basically cover more than 200 thousand of urban residents in urban areas.
In promoting the transformation and upgrading of transport services, we will promote the construction of a cross transport system, which will promote "one ticket to the end" and "straight luggage" in the way of aviation and urban rail, high speed rail. We should co-ordinate the development of railways, highways, air transport organizations, railway links and service products to provide high-quality intercity passenger services. To promote the rational development of urban rail transit and urban rapid transit system, promote urban bus lines to the town and village, and promote the integration of transportation and tourism. We will promote the healthy development of new areas of transport services, increase the supply of diversified and personalized travel services, and further improve the quality and efficiency of logistics.
(2) 10 times as much as 5 years! Hidden trouble in the market of China's aerial work platform, which is extremely hot, is hidden.
In recent years, with the rapid development of high altitude operating platform industry, not only a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises have joined them. The mainstream enterprises of traditional engineering machinery, such as Zhonglian, Xugong, 31, willow workers, mountains, and Shandong workers, have also been laid out in succession. Between 2017 and 2018, ZOOMLION and Xugong announced that they would invest huge sums of money and focus on aerial work platforms. With the disappearance of China's demographic dividend, the increase in infrastructure investment and the importance of personal safety, the aerial platform industry has been growing and growing. Since 2012, the high altitude operating platform market in China has been growing at an annual rate of 36%. In the 2016 and 2017 years, the sales growth of more than 50% has become a dazzling star in the major products of the engineering machinery. It is a "black horse" in the industry. However, under this background, the aerial work platform market has hidden dangers.
Excess capacity, hidden dangers, industry, sustainable development, destruction
At present, China's high altitude operating platform and leasing market are still in the primary stage of development. The threshold of market access is low. Many enterprises have entered into the industry because of promising industry, which leads to the risk of overcapacity in less than 10 years of development.
Shortsighted leases and manufacturers are fighting price wars.
Because of the large number of enterprises entering and overcapacity, the industry will go to a worse situation: low price and vicious competition.
4.2. new energy
(1) the new three iron fluoride cathode will increase the storage capacity of lithium battery by 3 times (reported source: high power lithium battery).
A new cathode nanomaterial lithium battery has been developed recently by the National Laboratory of the University of Maryland, the Department of energy and American military researchers. The energy density of the lithium battery reaches 3 times the existing commercial lithium battery, which is published in the journal Nature communications.
With the application of lithium battery more and more widely, the demand of high-energy density battery is also increasing. However, anode materials in traditional commercialized lithium batteries are usually good conductive materials such as graphite, but the capacity of cathode materials is very limited. "Cathode material is the bottleneck in the study of lithium batteries, and on this basis it is very difficult to improve the energy density of the battery," said Fan Xiulin, a researcher at University of Maryland, one of the main authors of the paper. To solve this problem, researchers from several institutions in the United States have synthesized an engineered three iron fluoride (FeF3), which has a higher energy density and is environmentally friendly.
In fact, three iron fluoride materials have not been used as cathode materials for lithium batteries before. When the electrode reaction occurs, three iron fluoride obtains electrons from lithium and transforms into iron and lithium fluoride. Because this compound has a certain hysteresis effect, the rate of reaction in the electrode is low, and the reaction by-products will also hinder the electrode reaction to continue. In addition, this reaction is not completely reversible, which means that the number of cycles of three Fe Fe electrode reaction is very limited, and will greatly reduce the economic performance of the battery.
The mechanism of this electrode reaction has been discovered from the microscopic level by extensive experiments. By using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), the real size of the cathode nanomaterials was determined, and the structural changes during the charge discharge process were observed. After that, the researchers used the X ray powder diffraction (XPD) technique to observe the crystal structure in the nanorods. It was found that adding other atoms could effectively improve the reaction rate. Therefore, the group uses chemical substitution to add the cobalt and oxygen atoms into the three iron fluoride nanorods, which changes the reaction mechanism, thereby reversing the electrode reaction of the three iron fluoride, and greatly increasing the battery life.
(2) inventory of power battery expansion projects in June is over 50GWh.
BYD Qinghai three yuan power battery just dropped off the line. In June this year, the power battery company announced that the total capacity of the total expansion capacity exceeded 50GWh. At present, the main force of domestic power battery expansion is still the top ten battery enterprises, such as BYD, Ningde era, national Xuan high school, Far East Forster.
It is not to be underestimated that Toshiba from Japan is expected to expand the demand for power batteries in the future and plan to increase the capacity of lithium ion batteries by 50%. There is also a new dark horse enterprise in China: Tafel is actively taking up cities.
Compared with 2016 and 2017, the expansion of domestic power battery enterprises has slowed down in 2018. From the statistical data of GGII, the overall growth rate of domestic power battery in 2017 and 2018 is decreasing. In 2018, the overall capacity of domestic production reached 230 - 240 GWh, but the new increment was only 60 - 65 GWh; in 2017, the overall domestic production capacity was in 180GWh, and the new amount was 95GWh.
From the scale of demand, GGII expects the overall size of demand in 2018 to grow at 65GWh, up to 46%, which is almost the same as that of 44% in 2017.
GGII believes that by the end of 2018, there will be 230GWh power battery capacity in China. If there is no passenger car to eliminate these capacity, there are logistics cars and bus ports, and the competition between power battery enterprises will be worse. In the weak power of technology, quality, capital strength and so on, battery enterprises are bound to have a foothold in the future market.
(3) 90% new energy vehicle companies will be phased out, and new and old forces will become a trend.
People in the industry believe that today is a contending opening period, no enterprise can have all the resources, only cooperation can win the battle in the future international market competition.
At this stage, new car making enterprises are exploring new directions and new possibilities of automobile industry with new thinking and new methods, but they are facing many difficult problems, such as lack of manufacturing technology and lack of production qualification. In the trend of intellectualization and networking, traditional car companies are facing difficulties in transformation and innovation.
To this end, people in the industry believe that under the new market trend, the cooperation of new car forces and traditional car enterprises will be deepened and diversified. From the initial generation of work, strategic cooperation will gradually develop into investment, joint venture and other cooperation. In the end, mergers and acquisitions and industry integration between new and old car manufacturers will also start.
At this stage, the cooperation of the new and old car making forces has several modes, such as agent, strategic cooperation, investment, joint venture, and so on, and the cooperation between enterprises will eventually evolve into the deep integration of investment, joint venture and merger.
4.3. semiconductor processing equipment
(1) China's first metal sputtering film pressure-sensitive chip production line is expected to be completed in Liuyang in October (source: SEMI semiconductor industry network).
Professor Wang Guoqiu, a doctoral supervisor of Hunan Normal University, led the team to adhere to the 10 year independent research and development of pressure sensitive sensor chips. In 2016, the industrial park of Kai Tak sensor network was settled in Liuyang hi-tech zone. After the building was built, it immediately started the renovation of the super clean workshop and prepared the installation and commissioning of the production line.
The metal sputtering film pressure sensitive chip production line is a special integrated circuit MEMS (micromechanical microelectronic system) sensing chip production line. This chip is widely used in military and civil automobile, fire fighting, intelligent city, petrochemical and other fields. This metal sputtering film pressure sensitive chip with fully independent intellectual property rights is realized. Mold production will break the monopoly blockade of chips in developed countries and accelerate the development of China's high-end pressure sensor industry. The chip is the core component of the sensor, and the self supply rate of MEMS (microelectromechanical system) sensing chip is only 0.5%, and China is also a big importer of high end sensors. Wang Guoqiu, chairman of Hunan Kai Tae Sensing Technology Co., Ltd., led his scientific research team, persisted in ten years of continuous research and development, and worked hard to conquer the key technology of chip in MEMS (microelectromechanical system) sensor and obtained two national patents.
At the same time, Wang Guoqiu led the team, together with a number of domestic and foreign equipment companies, joint research and development of custom pressure sensitive chip equipment production line, solved one of the difficult problems in production technology, to build China's first independent intellectual property right high-end sensing chip production line in Liuyang, Hunan, which will break the high-end pressure sensitive core of our country. Blockade of chip technology.
It is reported that after the first production line is completed and put into production, 20 thousand pressure sensitive chips can be produced every day, and in cooperation with domestic automobile manufacturers, the high end pressure sensor of automobile ESP (body stabilization system) is produced to replace the import in an all-round way.
Kai Tai sensor networking industry park project settled in Liuyang high tech Zone, started construction in 2016, covering an area of 100 mu, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, and is divided into two phases. The first phase of the investment is 500 million yuan, covering an area of 35 mu. After the completion of the first phase, 6 million pressure sensitive chips will be produced annually, and the annual output value will be more than 5 billion yuan after being packaged into sensors. After the second expansion, the output voltage sensitive chip is 18 million, and the annual output value is more than 15 billion yuan.
(2) China Unicom's 5G test covers 16 cities and plans to be officially commercial in 2020 (source: SEMI semiconductor network).
Lu Yimin, general manager of China Unicom, said at the international partnership conference held today that China Unicom's 5G scale test has been opened in 16 cities. It is expected to demonstrate business applications and test business in 2019 and plan to be formally commercially available in 2020.
Lu Yimin said that telecom operators are the main drivers and empowerers of the digital age, laying a solid foundation for the digital transformation of the whole society. In recent years, China Unicom has taken the opportunity to accelerate the transformation of the company's Internet, and has achieved remarkable results in the fields of cloud network integration, large data, 5G and industrial Internet.
China Unicom in the field of cloud network integration, based on the advantages of cloud services and network layout, to create a "cloud light enterprise" product system, including cloud network, cloud dedicated line, cloud networking and other cloud network integration scene services, can achieve business independent service and rapid opening, from which to meet the customer wide coverage, high reliability and Flexible deployment requirements.
In the field of large data, China Unicom has realized the concentration of national data, forming the storage capacity of PB level, nearly 5000 cluster nodes, and processing 77 billion positions of data in a day. China Unicom has said that it has deeply co operated with 17 industries and more than 700 enterprises, and has formed rich product cases.
(3) 2018 domestic semiconductor industry capital expenditure will increase substantially (report source: SEMI big semiconductor industry net)
According to the report issued by Research Institute IC Insights, it is estimated that the capital expenditure of China's semiconductor industry will reach US $11 billion in 2018, accounting for 10.6% of the world's total. Data show that in 2014 -2017, the capital expenditure of the domestic semiconductor industry was 1 billion 500 million US dollars, 2 billion 200 million US dollars, 3 billion 900 million US dollars and 7 billion 900 million US dollars respectively.
IC Insights said that, in addition to central international, Yangtze storage, Hefei Rui force, Fujian Shanxi, Shanghai Huali and other companies will spend a lot of money in 2018 and 2019 to purchase equipment and expand the new wafer plant. In the listed companies, the capital expenditure of the 32 companies was 3 billion 300 million yuan, up 35.47% from the same period, mainly in three sealed enterprises, which were long power technology, Alex Hua Tian technology, and Tongfu micro electricity.
Analysts said that the sharp increase in capital expenditure showed a high boom in the domestic semiconductor industry, and semiconductor device manufacturers are expected to take the lead. Because core equipment is mostly imported, domestic equipment manufacturers have limited benefits, and there are more opportunities for equipment manufacturers with advanced process technology.
4.4. robot and intelligent manufacturing
(1) industry boom is rising. Industrial robots are expected to break out. (source: OFweek Robot Net)
In the first half of 2018, industrial robots continued to exhibit a high degree of visibility. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2018 1-5, the output of industrial robots in China totaled 60071 units, an increase of 33.7% over the same period last year.
New software "robot" can be controlled by magnetic field.
Researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology have developed a small print software called 3D robot, which can be manipulated by magnetic field and is expected to be applied in the field of biomedicine. The study, published in the latest issue of the journal Nature, shows that this "robot" is actually a 3D printing structure resembling a snowflake, which stretches to a maximum diameter of about 4 centimeters. Under the control of magnetic field, it can crawl, roll, jump, and can quickly shrink to grasp the rolled ball, and can also wrap the tablet to move on the table. This "robot" controlled by a magnetic field does not require high voltage like some electric - driven robots, but faster than a software robot made from a hydrogel and other materials.
Boom of industrial boom, industrial robot sector is expected to erupt
In the first half of 2018, industrial robots continued to exhibit a high degree of visibility. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2018 1-5, the output of industrial robots in China totaled 60071 units, an increase of 33.7% over the same period last year. Analysts said that in the current market weak, the stock capital game pattern, the high landscape of industrial robot plate, under the catalysis of good news, is expected to attract market attention.
Jingdong express robot appears in Beijing: one can send up to more than 30 at a time.
Recently, Jingdong express robot has appeared in the streets of Beijing. The robot is named "Jingdong terminal distribution robot". It can send more than 30 orders at a time. The end distribution robot of Jingdong carries out 360 degrees of environmental monitoring through radar + sensor. It can automatically evade road obstacle and vehicle pedestrian, identify the traffic light signal accurately, stop the distribution point independently, and achieve the full scene adaptation of automatic distribution. The consignee can choose three ways, such as face recognition, input verification code, clicking mobile phone APP link, and so on.
(2) the national robotics innovation center was unveiled in Shenyang (source: OFweek Robot Net).
According to the people's daily, the national robotics innovation center has been unveiled at the Shenyang Institute of automation in the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the first national manufacturing innovation center in Liaoning. Based on the Shenyang Intelligent Robot National Research Institute Co., Ltd., the center is led by the Shenyang Institute of automation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. It operates in accordance with the enterprise mechanism and operates with the "company + alliance" mode, including 14 shareholders, and integrates the key disciplines and scientific research of leading enterprises, universities and scientific research institutions in China. Base. The center will focus on cultivating and developing the inspection and testing capability of the robot and key components, the ability to incubate the core parts of the robot, the demonstration ability and the support service ability of the industry, and form a national robot industry cooperative innovation base which integrates research and development, achievements transformation, industry service and talent training.
4.5. rail transit
Hangzhou added tramway project line network planning and recent construction plan design to start tendering (source: China Urban Rail Transit Association)
In July 2017, the general office of the Hangzhou municipal government issued a notice on Issuing the "13th Five-Year" plan for the development of comprehensive traffic in Hangzhou. The notice mentioned that the construction of rail tram projects is carried out on the periphery of the city and the newly emerging hot spots, and the system of high and middle transportation is formed to coordinate the operation of the rail transit system. At the same time, we should promote the construction of medium transport rail transit system and carry out 2 tram projects, which are tram line 1 of grand city (future science and technology city), railway tram line 2 in great Chengxi (future science and technology city), 38.4 km in length and about 3 billion 840 million yuan in total investment, and 3 billion 840 million yuan in "13th Five-Year". The construction of railway tramway 1 line, Fuyang tram line 1 and Tonglu tram line 1 are planned for the construction of tram in Baima Lake, Xiaoshan and Xiasha in Binjiang.
In June 24, 2018, the Jianggan District government network of Hangzhou issued a notice on the planning of the railway tram line network planning and the planning of the recent construction plan for the Hangzhou Qian Tang wisdom city investment and Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the notice"), which also means that the city of Hangzhou will be added to the tram project.
5. review of the market and machinery industry this week
On June 25th -6 29 (5 trading days), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.7%, the machinery industry index rose 2.2%, and the national defense industry index rose 3.8%. Among the machinery sub sectors, the largest increase was in other transport facilities, or 5.6%.
