Last week, the machinery industry increased by 2.2%, and agricultural machinery, semiconductor equipment and 3C automation equipment increased.
Zhou core viewpoint: the mechanical plate subdivision industry and the high quality stock overall valuation level have entered the reasonable range range. In July, it began to enter the semi annual performance forecast period. Under the rebound market, the proposed key layout was three main lines: 1) Statistics Bureau statistics of 1-5 months of industrial scale above the scale of manufacturing industry increase 7%, of which 3C equipment, special purpose Equipment, automobile manufacturing, general equipment, instrument and instrument increase 12.8%, 11%, 9.2%, 8.2%, 8.1% respectively. We expect the high probability of the performance of the newspaper to concentrate in 3C equipment, engineering machinery and high-end parts; 2) continue to focus on the independent control of high-end equipment, China and the United States trade friction on high-end equipment and core technology related industries The self controlled core technology is the first meaning, the medium and long term layout of semiconductor equipment, industrial robot, 3C automation, lithium electric equipment and other high-end equipment independent controllable and domestic substitution; 3) select subdivision industries from bottom to top, and focus on high-end parts (seals, Mold, import substitution, customized furniture, spinning clothing and other equipment subdivision industry hidden champion.
Overview of the main line of investment:
Mainline 1: SMIC 14nm process breakthrough, equipment domestic substitution into "singularity". According to TechNews reported by the technology media, SMIC 14nm trial production has reached 95% yield, laying the foundation for mass production in 2019. China has entered the peak period of equipment procurement from 18 years. However, SEMI estimates that 58% of equipment purchases are from foreign fabs, and domestic equipment is difficult to set foot in. SMIC is the leader of China's wafer fab. Its expansion plan will account for 30% of the total expansion in the next three years in the next three years. After its breakthroughs in the advanced process, mass production is expected to accelerate, and domestic alternative demand will also rise at the same time. Domestic equipment is expected to enter substantive performance. It mainly recommends North China Chuang Chuang, pure technology, Tiantong shares, Chang Chuan technology, and Jing Sheng electric machinery.
Main line two: China will continue to sit firmly in the first market of robots, and layout high-quality enterprises in the industry. The international robot Federation issued the 2018 World robot report. The global industrial robot sales reached 380 thousand in 2017, up 29% from the same period, and the Chinese market sold 138 thousand in 2017, up 58% from the same year, accounting for 1/3 of the world. Industrial robot industry continues to strengthen, the layout follows three main lines: 1) domestic quality manufacturers to master the core technology and to the downstream extension, to train technical strength, the establishment of market recognition is the only way. Recommend robots, Elton. 2) have the advantages of scale and capital, set up the predominance by high threshold, strengthen the upstream bargaining power with the scale effect, grasp the cost advantage, and establish the undertaking of large project with the strength of capital. It is recommended that tusta and Ke Lai mechatronics. 3) the technology breakthrough is expected to be replaced by the domestic giant, double ring transmission.
Main line three: the Matthew effect of the lithium power industry has been strengthened, and the leading company's firm expansion capacity has boosted the demand for high-end equipment in China. According to the high power lithium electricity statistics, the current announcement of the capacity of the power battery enterprises to expand production reached 65GWh, concentrated in the BYD, Ningde era, the national Xuan high science, Far East Forster and other leading enterprises and new Shanxi black horse Tafel. In addition, as Tesla's domestic landing, the gradual withdrawal of government subsidies, foreign battery enterprises in China set up power plant in China, is expected to greatly boost domestic capacity, equipment companies are expected to benefit from the harvest of new orders. Recommend leading intelligence, nu Li shares, Ke Heng shares, win win technology.
Main line four: the demand for excavators in the first half of the year is strong, laying a definite growth in the report performance of the construction machinery industry, and recommending the localization of the leading parts and core components. According to statistics, 1-5 months sales of excavators, 106 thousand units, up 60%, our industry chain research, excavator class costs continued to rise, the return on investment continued to improve; since infrastructure investment, real estate investment growth rate is better than expected, the downstream projects are concentrated, expected June sales are still expected to exceed expectations. The number of excavators in China is significantly higher than that of the international developed countries. It is expected to increase the growth of excavators by more than 20% this year. The industry leaders focus on cleaning up the burden of history, the balance sheet is obviously repaired, the profit elasticity is higher than the income growth, and the Sany, Liugong and XCP machinery are mainly recommended. The localization of the domestic hydraulic pump valve is recommended by Hengli hydraulic and Addie precision.
Risk warning: raw material prices rise; downstream investment growth slows down; industry competition intensifies; exchange rate fluctuation risk.
