Pay attention to clothing (polyester filament, acetic acid), food (pesticide, compound fertilizer), live (soda ash), row (tires, brine for lithium extraction)
This week founder chemical industry index rose 113.51, up 0.14. According to Caixin net, Ren Jianxin, chairman of China chemical industry group, announced retirement. Sinochem, director of Sinochem Group, Changning Gao Ning, also served as secretary and chairman of the Party committee of China chemical industry. Close to Sinochem executives also confirmed the merger of the two groups to Caixin reporter, but there is no definite plan to form a new company in any way.
Polyester filament industrial chain: the recovery of the textile industry and the restriction of the import of waste plastics led to the increasing demand for polyester and PTA. This is a long cycle reversal, and the concentration of PTA and polyester filament industry is increasing continuously. The profit level is in the boom period in the next 2 years, focusing on Hengyi petrochemical, Tung Kun shares, Rongsheng petrifaction, Heng Li stock. Phr, new Phoenix ring.
Acetic acid: Huayi Group, Hua Lu Hengsheng. June, 29, Hua Lu Heng Sheng reported 5400 yuan / ton (-350 yuan / ton), the recent downstream environmental protection limited production affect acetate production, acetic acid demand temporarily decline. Acetic acid is the global reversal of production cycle, foreign devices close to the second half of life, domestic no new capacity, the domestic downstream PTA fast volume, concern Huayi Group (1 million 300 thousand tons / year) and Hua Lu Heng Sheng (500 thousand tons / year).
Pure alkali: far from energy, Shandong sea. This week Shandong Haihua heavy soda ash reported 2380 yuan / ton (stable), affected by downstream environmental protection, light alkali price down 50 yuan / ton. The price of soda has risen for third years in a row. Tight balance is a fact. Even if a pessimistic outlook on real estate is expected, the construction of soda will continue to rise for the next three years. In the near future, although the downstream demand for light alkali has been reduced by environmental impact, prices are still strong under maintenance support, and subsequent demand for recovery is expected to continue to rise. Focus on Yuan Xing Energy (1 million 500 thousand tons soda ash and 300 thousand tons of sodium bicarbonate) and Shandong Haihua (ammonia alkali 2 million 800 thousand tons / year).
Pesticide: Yang Nong chemical, Lier Chemical and Changqing shares. Supply side environmental protection continues to tighten, demand side rebound in oil prices. Follow up concerns about environmental protection of Yangtze River economic belt, central environmental inspectors looking back, sewage permit verification. It is strongly recommended that genetically modified agrocyst and ammonium phosphate are higher than the industry growth rate: the Yangtze Nong chemical (permethrin and faucet faucet), lil chemical (ammonium phosphate faucet) and Changqing (second). In the near future, the price of pesticides entered the general state of popularization. The pyrethrin rose 11% to 300 thousand yuan per ton, and imidacloprid increased by 3% to 175 thousand yuan / ton, and glyphosate, imidacloprid, paraquat, ammonium phosphate, and Ercao were stable.
Compound fertilizer: Xinyang Feng. In June 29th, Hubei Xiangyun monoammonium phosphate reported 2200 yuan / ton (+50 yuan / ton), Xinyang Feng was the leading phosphate monophosphate in China, and the compound fertilizer business ranked second in China. We are optimistic about oil prices and driving up the price of agricultural products. The environmental regulation of the Yangtze River economic belt is expected to significantly reduce the production capacity of phosphate fertilizer. Subsequent phosphate fertilizer is expected to increase under the stimulation of phosphate rock shortage and supply contraction. Xinyang Feng was 14 times PE in 2018 and 10 times in 2020. It is highly recommended.
Linglong tires: another rising China made. In the ultra trillion market space, Linglong has the advantage of technology and has the cost advantage outside, and the capacity expansion will be more than 40% in the next three years. At the same time, focusing on brand is expected to gradually enjoy the brand premium. In 2017, many projects were developed, including the German Volkswagen, Czech Skoda, German Audi, SAIC Volkswagen, FAW Volkswagen, the American Volkswagen and the Mexico Volkswagen.
The extraction of lithium from the brine: the shares of the Saline Lake and the holding of the Zang. With the progress of lithium extraction technology, the extraction of lithium from Saline Lake brine will continuously improve the market share by cost advantage. Because of the huge demand for power batteries, lithium carbonate still has huge market space. We are optimistic about lithium extraction in China.
Risk warning: oil prices have dropped sharply, environmental protection has been relaxed, and the economy has fallen sharply.
