According to the research report of the brokerage firm, the total sales data of excavators in April was released, reaching 45,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.9%, in line with the forecast of further release of demand. From January to April, the cumulative sales of excavators was 114,100 units. The actual demand of the terminal is better, mainly due to the obvious supply pressure, and the current shortage ratio is still about 20%.
The data was reached on the basis of a number of construction machinery companies announcing price increases for construction machinery products such as excavators in April. On April 11, Sany Heavy Machinery issued a notice saying that the price of small excavators was increased by 10%. Increase the price of medium and large excavators by 5%.
The relevant person in charge of the Sanyi excavator factory in Shanghai Lingang stated that some models were ordered by customers as soon as they were launched, and were shipped off the assembly line. "Last year, our inventory can basically maintain sales for half a month. But this year is basically in short supply."
Analyst Zhang Chao of AVIC Securities believes that the excavator price increase and the hot sales reflect the strong demand for construction machinery due to the contraction of the construction period under the epidemic. The impact of price and price increase expectations on the prices of manufacturers' terminal products.
At present, the terminal side is seriously out of stock in the excavators of about 20 tons. Judging from the production schedule of parts and components companies, the domestic leading hydraulic parts are in full production. CITIC Securities expects that sales of excavators will increase by 50% to 60% year-on-year in May.
On the news, on May 6, 2020, the National Convention pointed out that it is necessary to expand domestic demand, accelerate the construction of major projects, and then issue a new limit of one trillion yuan in special debt.
Zhang Chao believes that under the influence of the following six factors, the overall performance of the construction machinery industry in 2020 need not be pessimistic:
First, adjust the demand of the bottoming industry in a counter-cyclical manner. Especially in the first quarter of this year, the economy was poorly affected by the epidemic situation. The government has sufficient willingness to increase investment in infrastructure for the rest of the year.
Second, the excavator will implement the National IV emission standards in 2020, which will facilitate the replacement of old models and provide additional demand for construction machinery. Taking the excavator as an example, there are currently 1.5 million excavators in the market, and its second and lower equipment in China exceeds 500,000. With the increase in emission standards under environmental protection requirements, the demand for replacement machines is expected to inject additional power into the sales of new machines for construction machinery companies .
Third, as China's aging intensifies and labor costs continue to rise, out of cost considerations, the trend of rural, municipal and other infrastructures replacing machines with machines will continue, thereby promoting the sale of excavators, especially small excavators.
Fourth, the head construction machinery company "going out of the sea" to participate in global competition, the expansion of overseas markets will provide additional support for its sales growth.
Fifth, the epidemic delays the construction period, making the same project target construction period passively compressed, and the demand for construction machinery may increase.
Sixth, as competition in the domestic market intensifies, head excavator companies are expected to continue to increase market share with brand, channel and product performance advantages, and performance is expected to exceed the overall performance of the industry.
AVIC Securities recommends focusing on head construction machinery companies such as Sany Heavy Industry and Xugong Machinery.
