This year's sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic has brought unprecedented impact on China's economic and social development. The main economic indicators in the first quarter declined significantly. At the same time, overseas epidemics continue to spread, the world economy is in recession, unstable and uncertain factors have increased significantly, and China's economic development is facing new difficulties and challenges.
In the 9th issue of 2020, Qiushi published Ning Jizhe's signed article "How to Dialectically Look at the First-Quarter Economic Situation", and looked at China's current economic situation from eight perspectives.
The impact of the epidemic is greater, and the industry's development resilience is prominent
According to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first quarter fell by 6.8% year-on-year. At the same time, China's economic and social development has withstood the severe test brought about by the new Coronary Pneumonia epidemic. The economic development has strong resilience and is related to the sustainable production of major industries such as agriculture, energy, raw materials, information and finance.
Some traditional industries have been severely hit, and the new economy and new momentum have grown against the trend
In the first quarter, the added value of accommodation and catering, wholesale and retail, transportation, warehousing and postal services decreased by 35.3%, 17.8% and 14.0% year-on-year respectively. At the same time, the epidemic has forced the digital transformation of consumption and the upgrading of industrial digitalization, and the growth of new industries and new products is not decreasing.
Investment activities slowed down, and construction of short-board areas such as health and epidemic prevention increased
In the first quarter, fixed asset investment fell by 16.1% year-on-year. At the same time, China is focusing on increasing investment in emergency supplies and medical and health services. In particular, the central government has optimized the local government ’s investment in special bonds, focusing on weak areas and key links, and part of the people ’s livelihood and high-tech industries have achieved investment growth.
Decreased market consumption and steady increase in sales of residents ’daily necessities
In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 19.0% year-on-year, of which the retail sales of commodities fell by 15.8% and the revenue of catering services fell by 44.3%. Despite the severe impact of the epidemic, there is sufficient supply of necessities throughout the country, and the production and sales of commodities, which are closely related to the basic lives of the people, have maintained growth.
The pressure on residents ’employment and income growth has increased, and the basic livelihood security has been strengthened
In the first quarter, there were 2.29 million new jobs in cities and towns across the country, a year-on-year increase of 950,000. China's employment priority policy continues to work hard. In February, governments at all levels paid a total of 123.9 billion yuan for social insurance premiums for enterprises, including pension, unemployment, and work injury. It is expected that the cumulative amount of relief will reach more than 500 billion yuan by June.
The difficulty of tackling poverty is increasing, and the three major battles are advancing solidly
The risk of returning to poverty due to the epidemic has increased, and the difficulty of getting rid of poverty has further increased. Throughout the country, we have worked hard to make up for the shortcomings in the process of building a well-off society. We continue to increase poverty alleviation and poverty alleviation, resolutely prevent poverty from returning to poverty due to epidemics, and fight for the battle of blue sky, clear water and pure land.
The pace of resuming production and resuming production is accelerating.
The average operating rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country has reached 99%, and the resumption rate of SMEs has exceeded 80%. Compared with February, the decline in major economic indicators narrowed in March. At the same time, we need to be aware that some enterprises still have difficulties in resuming production, lack of orders for production, not returning to work, and not increasing revenue.
External risk challenges are rising, foreign trade and foreign investment are basically stable
The current global epidemic continues to pandemic, and global trade and cross-border investment have been hit hard. Affected by the epidemic situation at home and abroad, the scale of foreign investment in China's foreign trade declined in the first quarter. Although the total volume of goods trade in China has declined, the total scale is still considerable, and the trend of diversification in the trade market is obvious.
On the whole, China's economic and social operations have gradually become normal in the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the order of production and living has accelerated, the resilience of economic development has appeared, and the overall economic and social situation has remained stable. However, the current international and domestic economic situation is extremely grim and complex, and the challenges facing China's economic development are unprecedented.
Facing the complicated situation, we not only adhere to the bottom line thinking, but also maintain our strategic determination. We have a significant socialist system advantage with Chinese characteristics, a complete industrial system and a solid material and technological foundation, a large-scale market advantage and domestic demand potential, a huge human capital and human resources, and a continuous release of the reform and opening up bonus, With rich experience and tools in macroeconomic regulation and control, China's economic stability and long-term development trends have not and will not change, and China's economic giant will surely turn crises into opportunities and achieve stability.
