A machine is hard to find, and the excavator is sold out! Two months after the order is scheduled;
In February of this year, excavator sales data hit a record high in February, exceeding the previous highest year by about 38% in February 2011. Industry insiders believe that the country's focus on new infrastructure and other industries, and the increase in upstream spending has effectively promoted the acceleration of demand in the excavator industry, and promoted both the production and sales of the excavator market. It is understood that since January this year, a total of 3 trillion yuan of major projects have been intensively started across the country. The government work report of the two sessions proposes to arrange a special project of 3.65 trillion yuan for local governments, and an investment of 610 billion yuan within the central budget to continue to support the promotion of coordinated development. Major projects. Driven by various projects, the excavator market is hot, production companies have a full list of orders, and supply exceeds demand. Many dealers have bottomed their inventory, and many models are out of stock. Some hot-selling models and even the delivery time are scheduled to be twice. Months later.
Increased investment in infrastructure construction, excavator sales exceed expectations
In Changsha, Hunan, Mr. Pi, the person in charge of a large-scale infrastructure project, told reporters that his company currently accounts for a rapid increase in the proportion of infrastructure projects in all businesses. In 2018, infrastructure projects only accounted for more than 20% of the company's total business. By 2020, it has increased to about 50%, and it is expected to reach 60% this year.
According to Mr. Pi, thanks to the rapid increase in the business volume of infrastructure projects, the demand for construction equipment in the entire market is also increasing. As far as the excavator is concerned, the current usage and the number of starts of their entire project has ushered in a peak. And this is also a microcosm of the boom in the entire excavator market. On the Internet equipment management platform of a mechanical equipment manufacturer in Changsha, the reporter intuitively felt the popularity of the entire industry.
Jiang Qingbin, deputy general manager of Sany Heavy Industry Pumping Company: Last year, before the Spring Festival, the number of construction machinery we connected to the network on this platform was 590,000, and now it has reached 627,000. It can be seen from this that the operating rate of excavators in recent months is much greater than that of excavators last year. From one aspect, the activity of our infrastructure is much better than last year. It can also be seen from Guangdong that March this year was much higher than March last year by nearly 8 points.
According to data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 26 mainframe manufacturers included in the statistics from January to February 2021 sold a total of 47,906 units of various excavator products, a year-on-year increase of 149.2%. Among them, the sales volume in February reached 28,305 units, a record high in excavator sales. The highest year before was 20,600 units in February 2011, and February this year exceeded February 2011 by about 38%.
Xiang Wenbo, President of Sany Heavy Industry: Our growth rate is higher. From January to February this year, the situation is also very good. Our growth has almost doubled. The industry is indeed very good.
Sunward Intelligent Deputy General Manager Long Jucai: From January to February, our main products have increased by 300% to 400% over the same period last year.
Industry insiders believe that the country's focus on new infrastructure and other industries, and the increase in upstream spending has effectively promoted the acceleration of demand in the excavator industry, and promoted both the production and sales of the excavator market.
Pacific Securities Machinery Industry Analyst Qian Jianjiang: Since January this year, a total of 3 trillion yuan of major projects have started intensively. The government work report of the two sessions also stated that it is planned to arrange special debts of 3.65 trillion yuan for local governments and 610 billion yuan for investment in the central budget to continue to support major projects that promote coordinated regional development. Driven by various projects, up to now, excavator manufacturers have had full production schedules, and they are basically working overtime to catch orders.
Excavator dealers have bottomed their inventory, and some manufacturers' delivery period has reached 2 months
The boom in excavator sales has also caused many dealers to queue up for goods. How long will this phenomenon last? What is the production situation of excavators today?
Mr. Wang is an excavator agent. He told reporters that in order to cope with the peak sales season for excavators after the Spring Festival, they had already stocked more than 800 units in advance before the holiday. But what he didn't expect was that only a month or so after the Spring Festival, the inventory was basically sold out.
In the face of the current hot scene of excavator market demand exceeding supply, manufacturers have also built additional production lines one after another to increase production capacity. In the newly upgraded intelligent production line of a mechanical equipment manufacturer in Changsha, even if the current production efficiency is greatly improved than in the past, it still cannot meet the order demand.
The reporter learned that the intelligent upgrade of equipment manufacturing is the current development trend of the entire construction machinery manufacturing industry, and the production efficiency of many manufacturers has been greatly improved. But even so, in the face of the current excavator market, manufacturers are in short supply, and many models are out of stock. Some hot models are even scheduled to be picked up two months later.
Industry insiders predict: the excavator market is expected to continue to maintain high growth in the future
The excavator market's enthusiasm is also reflected in the stock price performance of related listed companies. According to the Wind Excavator Index, the index has risen by 25.85% in 2020, and it has risen by nearly 10% this year. So, how long can the boom cycle of excavators last? Are there any investment opportunities in the secondary market at this stage?
In a construction machinery and equipment manufacturing company in Changsha, the relevant person in charge told reporters that among the different models of excavators, the sales growth of small excavators was the most obvious. The proportion of small excavators continues to increase, mainly due to the continued strong demand for artificial replacement in rural areas, municipal engineering and other scenarios.
Guo Xuehong, vice president of Zoomlion: Many small excavators have been tooled, because they need to use this for ordinary work. For example, in the countryside, we used to dig a ditch with a hoe and flat the ground with a hoe, but now we don’t use a small excavator. It has been instrumentalized, so there is a lot of demand in this market.
According to industry insiders, due to the wide range of markets for small and mini excavators, and the price and cost are still being optimized, it may be widely used in the rural market like household consumer goods in the future, replacing manual operations, and there is a huge market for incremental space.
Pacific Securities Machinery Industry Analyst Qian Jianjiang: Small excavators have always accounted for the highest sales proportion of all types of excavators, accounting for more than 60%, especially small and micro excavators under 6 tons. In terms of benchmarking overseas, due to its artificial substitution properties, it can be applied to various small-scale projects and agricultural activities, and the application scenarios continue to expand. We expect that the number of small and micro-digging markets will continue to grow in the future.
In addition, in December 2020, the Ministry of Ecology of the People's Republic of China announced that starting from December 2022, the fourth phase of emission standards for non-road mobile machinery will be implemented. This will promote technological innovation and upgrading of the entire industry, and at the same time accelerate the demand for replacement of excavators.
Long Jucai, deputy general manager of Sunward Intelligent: The current inventory of construction machinery is relatively large, reaching millions of units. The renewal of the old machine inventory is also an important reason. The National IV emission upgrade is about to be introduced, which will also stimulate the demand for the entire construction machinery.
Industry insiders believe that the excavator market will provide a relatively long-term and stable growth cycle for the entire excavator industry, whether it is from the recent increase in upstream expenditures or the long-term mechanical replacement of labor and the acceleration of replacement caused by new environmental protection requirements. It is recommended that investors pay due attention to the investment opportunities of related listed companies.
Wei Haihong, Chairman of Shenzhen Times Ark Asset Management Co., Ltd.: Double cycle, mainly internal cycle, this is a big background. So in this context, our urbanization still has potential. For example, the following third- and fourth-tier cities still have a lot of room for penetration, so I think the excavator should be a very prosperous business from a mid-to-long-term perspective. Industry.
Pacific Securities Machinery Industry Analyst Qian Jianjiang: There are about 10 companies involved in the production and sales of construction machinery such as excavators in the A-share market, and the overall valuation is low. The subsequent infrastructure and real estate industries are expected to continue to support the continued high sales of excavators Growth, demand for excavators remains strong. We recommend focusing on leading OEMs and core component companies with core barriers.
