The state focuses on new infrastructure and other industries, and the increase in upstream expenditures has effectively promoted the acceleration of the demand for the construction machinery industry, driving the production and sales of the construction machinery market represented by excavators and heavy trucks. The demand for construction machinery is strong, and the institution continues to be optimistic about the leading construction machinery, and pays more attention to the low-value, high-growth, high-quality segment leading of the machinery industry.
Excavator sales are booming in February, the number of sales increased by 205%
According to data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 26 mainframe manufacturers included in the statistics from January to February 2021 sold a total of 47,906 excavator products of various types, a year-on-year increase of 149.2%. Among them, in February 2021, 26 excavator manufacturers included in the association's statistics sold 28,300 excavators of various types, a year-on-year increase of 205%.
Excavator is an indispensable tool for all kinds of infrastructure projects, roads, water conservancy and other construction, known as the "economic activity thermometer". Therefore, excavator sales are usually regarded as one of the main indicators showing the status of infrastructure investment.
Why is the excavator sales hot? The analysis believes that an important reason is that the country's focus on new infrastructure and other industries, and the increase in upstream expenditure, effectively promoted the acceleration of the demand for the excavator industry, and promoted both the production and sales of the excavator market.
The most direct manifestation is that major projects have sprung up on the motherland, saving energy for high-quality economic development. For example, 361 major projects with a total investment of 582.3 billion yuan in Zhejiang Province have officially started; Sichuan Province will be the first in 2021. In the quarter, major projects started concentratedly, with a total investment of 799.4 billion yuan in 1957 major projects; 1141 new projects in the first quarter in Liaoning Province started in a concentrated manner, with a total investment of 467.6 billion yuan; 237 projects in 16 cities in Anhui Province started in a concentrated manner, with a total investment of 121.36 billion yuan……
Pay close attention to the construction of major projects is the most direct and powerful engine to promote economic development. Nowadays, new pictures in various places are unfolding one after another. It is not difficult to understand why the market demand for excavators is still hot this year, given that the annual sales volume in 2020 has reached a record high.
Driven by various projects, the excavator market is hot, production companies have a full list of orders, and supply exceeds demand. Many dealers have bottomed their inventory, and many models are out of stock. Some hot-selling models and even the delivery time are scheduled to be twice. Months later.
This year is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan". The major projects planned in the early stage will be launched in 2021. Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a steady growth momentum. In this context, excavator sales are expected to continue to maintain steady growth. Behind the excavator hot sale reflects the continued vitality of China's economy, and reflects the market's confidence in the future of the domestic economy. Excavators are "digging out" new horizons for China's economic recovery after the epidemic.
Favorable construction machinery faucet
Both the sales and working time curves of excavators have risen to the end of 2020. For 2021, institutions generally predict that sales of excavators will continue to increase year-on-year.
Qian Jianjiang, an analyst in the machinery industry of Pacific Securities, believes: "Small excavators have always accounted for the highest sales share of all types of excavators, accounting for more than 60%, especially small and micro excavators under 6 tons. Looking at the benchmark overseas, Due to its artificial substitution properties, it can be applied to various small-scale projects and agricultural activities, and the application scenarios continue to expand. We expect that the number of small and micro-digging markets will continue to grow in the future."
In addition, in December 2020, the Ministry of Ecology of the People's Republic of China announced that starting from December 2022, the fourth phase of emission standards for non-road mobile machinery will be implemented. This will promote technological innovation and upgrading of the entire industry, and at the same time accelerate the demand for replacement of excavators.
Industry insiders believe that the excavator market will provide a relatively long-term and stable growth cycle for the entire excavator industry, whether it is from the recent increase in upstream expenditures or the long-term mechanical replacement of labor and the acceleration of replacement caused by new environmental protection requirements. It is recommended that investors pay due attention to the investment opportunities of related listed companies.
In addition, in December 2020, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced that starting from December 2022, the fourth phase of emission standards for non-road mobile machinery will be implemented. Dongguan Securities believes that environmental protection upgrades are expected to speed up the replacement of existing stocks. According to the excavator service life of about 8 to 10 years, it is estimated that the potential renewal demand range from 2021 to 2023 is 86,000 to 135,000 units/year.
Dongguan Securities believes that the subsequent infrastructure and real estate industries are expected to support excavator sales to maintain high growth, and demand for excavators remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading construction machinery industry.
Zheshang Securities (601878) believes that the completion of real estate and infrastructure investment has increased rapidly, and the demand for construction machinery is strong, and it continues to recommend construction machinery leaders. Pay more attention to the low-value, high-growth, high-quality segment leaders in the machinery industry.
Heavy truck sales hit a record high
According to media reports, in March, my country's heavy-duty truck market is expected to sell about 220,000 vehicles of various types, an increase of 86% month-on-month and 83% year-on-year. The sales volume of 220,000 sets a new historical record for the heavy-duty truck market in March, which is more than 70,000 more than the previous record-March 2019 (148,800). This is also the 12th consecutive month that the heavy-duty truck market has set a record. From April 2020 to March 2021, the monthly sales volume of the heavy-duty truck market has set a new monthly sales record, creating a new monthly sales record. The historical record of monthly sales volume in the global heavy truck industry has once again been refreshed.
Cumulative sales in the first quarter exceeded 520,000. In the first half of the year, the sales volume of the heavy truck industry has been unstoppable. It is expected to hit 1.4 million vehicles throughout the year, exceeding market expectations. Industry insiders believe that there are three reasons for the surge in heavy truck market sales in March.
First of all, sales were lower during the same period. In March last year, the epidemic had not yet dissipated, the demand for logistics and transportation car purchases was still in the depressed stage, and the supply chains and production of many heavy truck and component companies had not fully recovered. This also led to the sales volume of only 120,000 vehicles in the same period last year; in March this year, the production and sales of the heavy truck industry and enterprises were at full production and sales. March this year and the same period last year can be said to be a scene of "two days of ice and fire."
Secondly, terminal demand in the heavy-duty truck market started quickly. At present, the demand for car purchases in most key regions during the traditional peak season has already started. Heavy truck dealers of different brands have received orders from customers after the Lantern Festival have increased to varying degrees. Heavy truck users are more motivated to purchase vehicles. Among them, there are reasons for the start of engineering transportation and logistics transportation, which promotes the increase in demand for car purchases, and the reason for worrying about the sharp increase in car purchase prices after the implementation of the National VI in the second half of the year.
Third, companies are striving to compete in the market in the first half of the year. Since the National VI emission regulations for heavy diesel vehicles will be fully enforced from July 1 this year, almost all companies believe that they must fight for a good start and the market in the first half of the year. Each company's terminal promotion and channel distribution are unprecedented. . The heavy-duty truck company's competitive strategy and strategic approach of "strengthening the army and fighting every inch of the earth" created sufficient conditions for the sales volume in March to hit a new high and set a new global record.
Minsheng Securities pointed out that the next two years will be the time limit for the large-scale natural phase-out of the national triple trucks in the next two years, combined with the impact of the National III scrapping encouragement policies in various regions, and it is expected that the elimination of the stock national triple trucks will provide incremental demand for the heavy truck market. At the same time, the steady growth in freight demand provides strong support for the long-term demand for heavy-duty logistics trucks, and it is expected that the center of heavy-duty truck ownership will continue to move upward. It is recommended to pay attention to Weichai Power (000338), China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951), and FAW Jiefang (000800).
Prosperous production and sales promote the improvement of construction machinery leading performance
On the evening of March 30, domestic construction machinery leaders including Sany Heavy Industry (600031) and Zoomlion (000157) released their 2020 annual reports. Many products represented by excavators were sold well or even out of stock, which also made many companies last year The performance recorded a "full house", and the sharp increase in the quarterly report this year indicates that the peak season is still continuing.
Can the industry's prosperity in the future be maintained? Industry insiders predict that with the increase in market concentration, industry cyclical fluctuations will tend to ease. Another agency pointed out that the industry growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be slower than that in the first half of the year.
"Our orders for big digging have always been waiting in line, and some big digging may have been queued for two months," Xu Zhihui, deputy general manager of Zoomlion Earthmoving Machinery Marketing Company, said publicly recently, reflecting The machinery industry represented by excavators is indeed hot now.
At the end of March, the annual reports of the three major machinery were released. Sany Heavy Industry's revenue and absolute net profit both steadily occupy the top spot. Zoomlion's net profit growth rate (a year-on-year increase of about 67%) is the fastest, and Sunward Intelligent (002097) net profit growth (a year-on-year increase of about 12.3%) is the second place.
Let's take a look at the 2020 transcript of Zoomlion. The company's revenue and net profit were 65.109 billion yuan and 7.281 billion yuan, an increase of 50.34% and 66.55% respectively year-on-year. Insiders of the company said that Internet thinking is a business, and products are made with extreme thinking. Last year, the sales scale and management quality reached the best level in history. The substantial increase in revenue and net profit stems from the increase in the market share of core products and the leading industry in profitability.
The annual report shows that by industry, its construction machinery segment accounted for 94.28% of its revenue, a year-on-year increase of 49.75%, cost increased by 53.78% year-on-year, and gross profit margin decreased by 1.89 percentage points year-on-year.
The reporter noted that in the composition of operating costs, material costs increased by 1.61%, while labor and other costs fell slightly.
In the evening of the same day, Sany Heavy Industry also disclosed its annual report. The company achieved revenue of 99.342 billion yuan last year, an increase of 31.29% year-on-year, and realized a net profit of 15.431 billion yuan, an increase of 36.25% year-on-year.
In a horizontal comparison, Sany Heavy Industry's gross profit margin has dropped significantly, and its construction machinery products have dropped by 2.98 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of products, the gross profit margin of concrete, excavation and hoisting machinery decreased by 2.52%, 3.97%, and 2.59% respectively. The cost of raw materials increased by 37.56% year-on-year.
As the "big brother" with the highest market share of excavators in China, it has been the sales champion in the domestic market for 10 consecutive years, and the market share of the full range of large, medium and small excavators has increased significantly. Sany Heavy Industry's annual report shows that its production and sales of construction machinery increased by 47.21% and 44.81% year-on-year, respectively, and its inventory increased by 62.37% year-on-year.
It is worth mentioning that both Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion are increasing their R&D expenses. Last year, Sany Heavy Industry’s R&D expenses increased by 36.76% year-on-year, mainly due to increased R&D investment in construction machinery products and key components; Zoomlion The research and development expenses of Heavy Industry have increased by 120.67% year-on-year. According to Zoomlion, this move is to provide guarantee for the company to build technologically leading high-end products and consolidate its leading position in the market.
Given that there is still room for price cuts in the excavator market, and the production capacity is far greater than the sales volume, competition in the industry will become more intense in the future. Earlier, many people in the machinery industry pointed out that strengthening R&D investment and focusing on differentiated competition is expected to partially ease the intensity of market competition.
In addition, with the exception of Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion and Sunward Intelligent have all released performance forecasts for the first quarter of this year. The forecast for the first quarter of Zoomlion shows that net profit is expected to be 2.2-2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 114.41%-153.39% year-on-year. The reason is that product upgrades and safety and environmental protection upgrades have driven equipment replacement demand and superimposed overseas demand recovery.
