my country's current "National Three" standard was implemented on April 1, 2016, and the earliest in the United States and Europe was 2006. The implementation time of current domestic emission standards lags behind developed countries abroad by about 10 years. Compared with mature markets, the gradual tightening of emission standards is a general trend. The tightening of emission standards is a catalyst for stabilizing industry demand. Promoting equipment updates and stimulating the release of demand for new machines will result in the replacement of a large number of machines in use on the market.
Technically speaking, my country’s implementation of the "National IV" standard is 11 years behind developed countries. Engine companies have a complete and sufficient engine technology reserve for National IV emissions, especially high-end engine brands, whose product lines are more complete and complete, even Able to meet higher emission requirements. In the past few years when the "National Four" standard has been fully brewed, engine companies are also constantly trying to promote this type of high-standard products. To a large extent, due to cost-effective reasons, there has been no effort. The implementation of the "National Four" standard gives engine companies such an opportunity.
From the market, after the "National Four" standard comes out, the equipment of "National Two" and before will be gradually eliminated. According to the actual demand for 300,000 units in 2020, my country's current excavator inventory is close to 2 million units, and the number of excavators before the "National Second" exceeds 1 million units.
It is foreseeable that once the "National Four" emission standards are officially implemented, there may be a peak of concentrated replacement of old machines, which will stimulate the centralized sales of inventory machines to a certain extent. How to ensure the stability of the "National Four" engine supply and compete in the market Obtaining a larger share of the engine will become a problem that engine manufacturers must face. To a certain extent, will it cause a reset of the engine market pattern? Perhaps it is both an opportunity and a challenge for many engine manufacturers.
1
D1CM: What is the technical feasibility of implementing the "National Fourth" standard?
Wang Jinxing: Engine companies, after several years of technical preparation and testing, are already very technically mature. Moreover, it will be implemented on December 1, 2022, and there are still nearly two years away, so there is no need to worry about the technical aspects.
The only thing I need to remind is the legal risk, which is what the Construction Machinery Industry Association and the Ecological Environment Department have always wanted to emphasize: whether it is three months or six months, the host manufacturer must reserve enough for purchase, matching, sales and inventory clearance. The transition time to ensure that the equipment on sale before December 1, 2022 will be completely replaced by "National IV" to "National III." If after the time point, there are still "National III" equipment on the market, the main engine manufacturer or engine manufacturer must bear the corresponding legal responsibility, and it is certain that the punishment will be relatively large.
D1CM: What new difficulties will engine companies face with the release and implementation of new standards? For example, technical barriers to research and development and cost control.
Wang Jinxing: As early as 2017, whether it is a main engine or an engine company, it has already begun to solve the technical problems related to the National IV emission requirements. Many foreign-funded (including joint venture) brands have reached Euro IV or even Euro V standard technical reserves earlier; at present, the engine aftertreatment system of domestic brands does not have much difficulty from a technical point of view. But there is a suggestion: engine companies must keep in close contact with host companies.
Generally speaking, the final data transmission of the equipment is mainly the host company, such as the engine OBD data, some data parameters of urea quality, the pressure difference of the DPF after the exhaust particulate matter post-processing, the temperature of the SCR, etc., so the engine company must actively follow the host company Conduct multi-faceted technical communication to obtain engine performance parameters, in order to obtain more product improvement opinions.
D1CM: Hyundai, JCB, including domestic brands such as Sany, Zoomlion and Weichai, are actively deploying hydrogen energy products. The application of hydrogen energy has gradually shown a competitive trend of catching up with you. Does this indicate that construction machinery is about to Entering the era of zero-emission hydrogen energy? Is the hydrogenization of construction machinery following the trend or just in demand, how do you interpret it?
Wang Jinxing: From the current point of view, electrification is one of the development trends of the industry, and the technology is relatively mature. Electric forklifts have been commercially available in a wide range in the early years, and their proportion has been rising. It is expected that it will exceed 50% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Electric loaders and electric excavators are also very popular in the market. The hydrogen energy mentioned here, from the perspective of environmental protection, can achieve zero emissions, which is a good development direction.
But here are the same problems as fuel delivery: general construction machinery cannot go to the gas station to refuel, and can only deliver fuel to the construction site by a dedicated person, so how to solve the supply of hydrogen energy? The delivery of hydrogen energy must definitely require pressure vessels or pipelines. Realization, how to ensure safety issues... These all need to be discussed in depth.
In recent years, the development of electric vehicles is much faster than construction machinery, so I personally think that hydrogen energy in the automotive field may also develop and grow before the construction machinery industry. Although the possibility of mass production is unlikely at present, it needs to be further verified by market demand, policy support and related technology improvement, but in any case, the development of zero emissions and new energy is the direction of the joint efforts of industry colleagues. The only way to realize "Green China".
2
Explanation of related terms involved in this article:
●Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR, Selective Catalytic Reduction)
SCR is a treatment process for the NOx in the exhaust emissions of diesel vehicles, that is, under the action of a catalyst, a reducing agent (such as NH3, liquid ammonia, urea) is injected to reduce the NOx in the exhaust gas to N2 and H2O. There are two types of catalysts: precious metals and non-precious metals.
● Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF, Diesel Particulate Filter)
DPF is a ceramic filter installed in the exhaust system of diesel engines. It can capture particulate emissions before they enter the atmosphere.
● Particle Number (PN, Particle Number)
PN is a way of calculating particulate matter, and the unit of measurement is: quantity/kWh. "National Fourth" has newly added the limit requirement of the number of particulate matter (PN): ≤5×1012 pieces/kWh.
● Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS, Portable Emission Measurement System)
The main function of PEMS is to test the emission characteristics of vehicles in real time, also known as vehicle exhaust gas detection equipment.
● On-board automatic diagnosis system (OBD, On Board Diagnostics)
OBD is a detection system extended for car fault diagnosis. It monitors whether the car's exhaust exceeds the limit at any time from the engine's operating status. Once the limit is exceeded, it will immediately issue a warning.
