UNCTAD releases report forecast
Global electric vehicle battery raw material demand will increase
Economic Daily Geneva reporter Yang Haiquan reported: The UNCTAD recently released a special report that pointed out that the vigorous development of global electric vehicles has led to a surge in demand. It is expected that by 2030, 23 million passenger vehicles will be produced globally.
The report said that the importance of raw materials for electric transportation and rechargeable car batteries is becoming more and more important. It is expected that the demand for such raw materials will grow rapidly, and the importance of petroleum energy is declining. Currently, the world is working hard to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and this trend is expected to stimulate further investment in green energy production.
The report believes that if the source of raw materials for electric vehicle rechargeable batteries can ensure sustainability, then rechargeable batteries will play an important role in the global transition to a low-carbon energy system and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In 2018, the world's most common lithium-ion battery market for electric vehicles is estimated at US$7 billion, and is expected to reach US$58.8 billion by 2024.
At present, the raw material reserves of electric vehicle batteries are highly concentrated in several countries, and the added value is limited. Nearly 50% of the world's cobalt reserves are in Congo, 58% of lithium reserves are in Chile, 80% of natural graphite reserves are in China, Brazil and Turkey, and 75% of manganese reserves are in Australia, Brazil, South Africa and Ukraine. This highly concentrated phenomenon is susceptible to adverse factors such as political instability and the destruction of the ecological environment. Once the supply of raw materials is interrupted, it may lead to a tight market, rising prices and rising car battery costs, which will affect the global transition to low-carbon electric transportation. Therefore, increasing efforts to invest in green technologies and reducing dependence on battery raw materials will help reduce the vulnerability to shortages of raw materials such as lithium and cobalt.
Pamela Cook Hamilton, director of UNCTAD’s International Trade Division, said: "As investors become more cautious about the future of the oil industry, alternative energy sources such as batteries will become more important. Used to make electric vehicles The continued rise in demand for strategic raw materials for batteries will open up more trade opportunities for countries that supply these raw materials. For these countries, it is important to expand their capabilities and move upstream in the value chain."
Statistical analysis shows that automobile battery manufacturing is mainly dominated by Asian countries. In 2015, China accounted for approximately 39% of the global market, Japan accounted for 19%, and South Korea accounted for 7%.
