Despite the poor performance in 2019, and the growth rate driven by the new crown epidemic pandemic is expected to decline from 3.7% to 1.4% in 2020, the forklift market has strong global potential overall.
Interact Analysis May 5, 2020
Market intelligence company InteractAnalysis has released a new report, predicting that the forklift market will continue to grow significantly, and will shift from lead-acid technology to lithium-ion technology in the growing electric forklift.
The Interact Analysis report shows that despite the poor performance in 2019 and the expected growth rate of the new crown epidemic pandemic will be reduced from 3.7% to 1.4% in 2020, the forklift market has strong global potential overall. The report predicts that after 2020, strong growth will resume, from the shipment of hundreds of thousands of forklifts in the last century to 2.4 million in 2028. Interact Analysis further estimates that the current 60:40 share between electric and diesel vehicles will be significantly expanded in the next decade. By 2028, electric forklifts are expected to occupy 70% of the market, and lithium-ion batteries will power nearly 50% of industrial vehicles.
The main driver of the strong demand for forklifts, especially in the field of electric forklifts, is the growth of the warehousing and logistics industry due to the growth of e-commerce and labor shortages. Interact Analysis predicts that the current coronavirus epidemic will accelerate this trend. The prevalent online shopping, in the long run, is likely to change the shopping habits of many people. Warehouses and distribution centers are closed and indoor environments; pollution and noise levels are a problem. Therefore, electric forklifts will be obviously popular, and from the perspective of charging and environmental protection, it is particularly suitable for these restricted environments. As part of a strategy to mitigate the impact of further global shocks, the COVID-19 crisis may also enable the automatic unmanned growth of the third category of storage-type forklifts in manufacturing. It is precisely because of the high degree of automation of some factories in China that they can continue to produce during the coronavirus epidemic, while factories with a lot of manpower have closed their production lines.
Lead-acid battery technology has occupied a leading position in the field of electric forklifts for many years, and its supply is reliable and safe. However, the global mainstream forklift suppliers have launched lithium-ion powered forklifts. BYD produced more than 30,000 forklifts in 2019. The initial expenditure of these forklifts is high, but due to the high energy density of lithium-ion batteries, their cycle life, efficiency, and low cost of investment depreciation, have a significant advantage in terms of total cost of ownership. And maintenance-free and shorter charging time.
Amazon and Wal-Mart in the United States have begun to use hydrogen fuel cell-powered forklifts. However, hydrogen battery technology is still very new, and there are currently some problems preventing it from becoming the dominant player, including its high initial purchase cost, the difficulty of storing hydrogen, the high flammability, and the fact that its production depends on fossil fuels. More than 90% of the hydrogen forklifts sold in 2019 are in the North American market. Plug Power, an American company specializing in the production of hydrogen fuel cells, has persuaded many forklift manufacturers to join the technology. Interact Analysis predicts that by 2028, Europe will gain 44% of the hydrogen fuel market, but it will be a restricted market. Elsewhere, enthusiasm for the technology is limited.
Although China accounts for 36% of the global forklift market in 2019 (30% in Europe and 15.3% in North America), it is electrified, and less than 50% of forklifts in the Asia-Pacific region are electric forklifts, compared with more than 85% in Europe. Given that the largest share of lithium-ion battery production is located in the Asia-Pacific region, and these reports are shocking, the report predicts that electrification in the Asia-Pacific region will grow significantly, and its share will reach 61% by 2028.
