According to the latest statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, a total of 24,625 excavating machinery products were sold in June 2020, a year-on-year increase of 62.9%. This data confirms that the industry's previous boom for the excavator industry in the second quarter of 2020 continued to exceed market expectations. According to the forecast, the cumulative sales of 170,425 units in the first half of the year increased by 24.2% compared with the same period in 2019, and also reached more than 70% of the total sales of excavators in 2019.
Domestic market
Gradually get rid of the impact of the epidemic and grow substantially from March
From January to June 2019, sales of excavators in the domestic market were 155,893 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%. Among them, 68630 units were sold in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%; 87263 units were sold in the second quarter, an increase of 9.9% year-on-year.
From the perspective of monthly sales, sales in the first two months were severely affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the new crown epidemic, leading to negative sales growth. Among them, domestic sales of excavators fell by 23.5% year-on-year in January, and the year-on-year decline in February reached 60%. January and February also became the only two negative growths in excavator sales in the domestic market in the first half of 2020.
Since March, with the achievement of major and important results in the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic situation in China, the economic recovery and development has gradually progressed steadily, and the domestic excavator market has ushered in a “turn in the situation”. First, the domestic sales and total sales of excavators broke the historical record in March and approached 50,000 units; then the domestic sales and total sales of excavators hit a record high in April, and the year-on-year growth rate returned to 50 after an interval of 13 months More than 1%; subsequent positive news such as the concentrated construction of new construction projects in May and June drove the industry to rebound and promoted a large increase in demand for construction machinery, so that the domestic sales of excavators continued to maintain high growth, with a year-on-year increase of more than 70%. In the post-epidemic period, such "retaliatory" growth greatly boosted the confidence of construction robots.
Export market
Open higher and lower, cumulative sales increased by 17.8% against the trend
In the first half of 2020, a total of 14,532 excavators were exported, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. Although sales have shown an upward trend from the first half of 2019 as a whole, compared with the 38.7% year-on-year increase in export sales in the first half of 2019, this year's increase has slightly decreased.
In a single month, overseas construction machinery was not affected by the Spring Festival in January and February, and the new crown epidemic situation did not spread overseas at this time. Therefore, overseas demand showed strong and sustained high growth in the first two months, 2 Monthly excavator export sales increased by 62.5% year-on-year.
However, since March, the overseas epidemic has ushered in a major outbreak, and the situation is gradually becoming more severe. Affected by the "stop orders", "blockade orders", and international logistics in some countries, the export sales of excavators have been increasing since March, but have increased. There was a noticeable sharp drop in speed. In April, when the spread of overseas epidemics was most severe, exports rose only 1% year-on-year.
The current epidemic situation has been effectively controlled in the country, but Europe and the United States and other places continue to spread. In May and June, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator export sales picked up slightly, and future changes in overseas demand still need to be observed.
Tonnage structure
Demand for medium and large digging picks up, and small digging continues to lead the market
In terms of tonnage structure, the sales of large excavations (≥30t) in the domestic market from January to June 2020 were 20397 units; the sales of medium excavations (20~30t) were 39929 units; the sales of small excavations (<20t) were 98365 units. Big digging, medium digging, and small digging accounted for 13%, 25%, and 62%, respectively. Among them, small digging accounted for the largest sales volume. It is also the model that has consistently maintained the first position in sales since the first half of this year and continues to lead the market.
Compared with the cumulative sales growth of each tonnage excavator in January-June 2019, the cumulative sales of small excavation increased by 2 percentage points year-on-year in the first half of 2020, and the cumulative sales of medium-digging and large excavation decreased by 1 percentage point year-on-year. Look, the growth trend is basically the same as the same period in 2019.
Single-month data shows that the proportion of sales volume of big digs in the first half of 2020 is relatively small, and the fluctuation remains at about 2%; the proportion of sales volume of digging is relatively volatile, showing a continuous and slow upward trend in the first four months, and a slight decline in the following two months ; Small excavation maintained a high proportion of about 65% in the first three months, and the demand for medium and large excavation slightly decreased. Some professional organizations analyzed that due to the trend of small digging benefiting rural, municipal construction and machine substitution, the second half of the year will contribute to the core growth engine.
Looking back on the excavator market in the first two quarters of 2020, it might be more appropriate to describe it as "suppressing first and then rising." Despite the highest growth recorded in March, the overall decline in the first quarter. Under the epidemic situation, the excavator market in the second quarter and even the first half of the year can perform "supernormally". It is inseparable from our country's national defense control and anti-epidemic victory to provide a space and environment for the industry market to survive and develop. Looking forward to the second half of the year, although the country has introduced many policies on "new infrastructure", in the short term, traditional infrastructure will still play an important role in complementing the economic shortcomings and promoting economic stability. Therefore, many people in the industry believe that Based on the continued strong performance of downstream demand, the monthly sales of excavators may continue to exceed expectations; some organizations have predicted that the annual sales of excavators will be close to 300,000 units, and the sales growth rate is expected to exceed 25%.
