At 21:00 on July 13th, employees are still working overtime in the production workshop of Xiaocheng (pseudonym) in Suzhou, Jiangsu.
The scale of the factory operated by Xiao Cheng is not too large. He told reporters that the products produced by the factory are mainly exported and mainly sold to Europe and the United States. The electric equipment used in the production of these products has also been busy recently, and electricity bills have increased compared to previous months.
Electricity is the power source for enterprises to resume production. According to the latest data released by the National Energy Administration, in June, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached 635 billion kWh, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year. In terms of industries, the electricity consumption of the first industry was 7.6 billion kWh, an increase of 12.9% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of the second industry was 441.2 billion kWh, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 103.7 billion kWh, an increase of 7.0 year-on-year %.
Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute of Chuancai Securities, told reporters that the increase in electricity consumption in the whole society means that economic and social operations and production and operation orders have begun to return to normal in an orderly manner. Since the beginning of this year, the state has adopted a variety of effective measures to benefit small and medium-sized enterprises and ensure their normal operation. At the stage when the epidemic situation is now well controlled, with the gradual recovery of social demand, enterprises began to expand production to meet demand, which in turn promoted a rise in electricity consumption in the whole society.
"The electricity consumption of the secondary and tertiary industries continues to rise, indicating that under the background of the effective control of the epidemic, the macro-economy continues to improve. It is expected that the industrial added value of June will be announced soon, and the year-on-year probability will be realized on the basis of May. Upward." Zheng Houcheng, director of the British Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with reporters that from the perspective of demand, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in fixed asset investment completion and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in total retail sales of social consumer goods are likely to narrow. The growth rate of both imports and exports is better than expected, and the GDP in the second quarter will record positive growth year-on-year.
Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Institute of International Finance and Economics, told reporters that since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society has increased month by year, reflecting that the economic operation has gradually become normal and the economic recovery has accelerated. From the perspective of the recovery of various industries, the growth rate of electricity consumption of the primary and secondary industries in June was higher than the same period last year. The tertiary industry was relatively affected by the epidemic, but the trend of monthly rebounds was obvious.
He further stated that from the perspective of the impetus for economic recovery in the first half of the year, infrastructure investment, real estate development, industrial structure optimization, and investment-driven economic recovery have a clear pattern, which is expected to run throughout the year. For example, the growth rate of infrastructure investment changed from negative to positive in April, reaching 4.8%, and in May it jumped to 10.9%, a new high since 2018; real estate investment increased by 8.1% year-on-year in the same month, and basically returned to the level before the epidemic; January-5 The value added of the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 3.1% year-on-year in the month, which was 5.9 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the value added of the manufacturing industry during the same period. Therefore, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter is expected to be positive.
In addition to electricity consumption, another noteworthy data is excavator sales, which is regarded as one of the important micro indicators to observe economic operation.
According to the latest data released by the China Construction Machinery Association, of the 25 mainframe manufacturing companies included in the statistics, a total of 24,600 types of excavating machinery products were sold in June, a year-on-year increase of 62.9%. In addition, some data show that in the first half of this year, the cumulative sales of domestic excavators has exceeded 170,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of 24.21%.
Chen Li believes that the increase in sales of excavators is because the country began to increase investment in infrastructure at the beginning of this year. The role of infrastructure in expanding domestic demand and supplementing shortcomings has been repeatedly emphasized, which is an important support for stabilizing the domestic economy. At the same time, the rate of local government debt lenders has accelerated significantly this year. The amount of loans has been continuously increased, and infrastructure projects have received strong financial support.
Zheng Houcheng said that the sales of excavators in the first half of the year showed a trend of "before low and then high". With the promotion of domestic counter-cyclical policies, the sales of excavators remained at a high year-on-year, indicating that infrastructure investment is playing a role as a "main force" in counter-cyclical adjustment. In terms of policy, the National Development and Reform Commission said on July 13 that the total investment for the construction of 150 major water conservancy projects this year and its follow-up is about 1.29 trillion yuan, which can drive direct and indirect investment of about 6.6 trillion yuan.
"It is expected that the sales volume of excavators in the second half of the year will remain at a relatively high position, and the cumulative amount of infrastructure investment completed will have a high probability of positive in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the second half of the year." Zheng Houcheng said.
Wu Chaoming said that through the observation of a series of data such as electricity consumption and excavator sales, it indicates that my country's investment growth rate will continue to increase in the third and fourth quarters, and the economy will continue to pick up.
