[Construction Machinery] June-July sales of excavators are expected to maintain a high year-on-year increase. It is recommended that the sales of excavators continue to be over-provisioned. According to industry chain research, we expect that the growth rate of excavators in June will be more than +50% year-on-year. Maintain a high growth trend. The production of core parts manufacturers continued to be strong in July. The output of Hengli hydraulic excavator cylinders in July increased by more than 60% year-on-year, which is still in the peak season compared with last year. We believe that the sales volume of excavator in July is expected to maintain a high growth rate . Considering the gradual implementation of the follow-up infrastructure policies, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to improve, and industry demand will be released synchronously. We judge the excavation boom will continue throughout the year.
In the latter period, the variety of relay excavators will grow at a high rate, and the boom in the second half of the year will be highly certain: the industry sales growth rate of concrete pump trucks from January to May is expected to be more than 30%. We believe that concrete machinery will usher in a new peak in 2020-2022. The half-year pump truck sales season continues. In 2020, the peak of crane replacement and replacement continues, driven by infrastructure and wind power projects, the industry boom is continuously improving, the overall sales of Q2 are strong, and it is expected that the off-season trend will appear in the second half of the year. In addition, the tower crane industry is still in a prosperous period. In the medium and long term, the continuous increase in the penetration rate of prefabricated buildings will drive the demand for large-tonnage tower cranes + the increase in the use density of tower cranes. The tower crane boom still has strong support.
Investment suggestion: The prosperity of various types of construction machinery continues, and the growth rate of sales volume of the leading companies' overlapping market share is higher than the industry. The Q2 performance is expected to exceed expectations. Key recommendations [Sany Heavy Industry]: The competitive advantage of the entire series of product lines and the continuous increase in the concentration of leading companies; the export has continued to exceed expectations; the leading valuation of the industry is at a premium. 【Zhonglian Heavy Industry Co., Ltd.】 The leader in the post-cycle of construction machinery, the three-year performance is expected to double, and the valuation will be revised up significantly. [Heng Li Hydraulics] The domestic hydraulic faucets, pumps and valves are expected to increase in full volume. [Construction Machinery] The industry boom is expected to continue, and the tower crane rental leader has the potential for continuous expansion. 【Zhejiang Dingli】Aerial work platform faucet, arm-type volume can be expected. It is recommended to pay attention to Eddie Precision and Liugong.
[Semiconductor equipment] SMIC's strategic allocation covers material suppliers of core equipment suppliers, and deepens the development of binding. SMIC is expected to list the science and technology board in July. A number of material silicon wafers and core equipment suppliers participate in the strategic allocation. Strategic investors include semiconductor materials—Shanghai Xinyang; large silicon wafers—Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Xinsheng. Currently, only these two companies in China have a small supply of 12-inch silicon wafers; etching equipment—China Microelectronics; and cleaning Equipment-Shengmei Semiconductor and Zhichun Technology. We believe that the strategic shareholders covered by this strategic placement have a solid background, and deep binding is conducive to the full mobilization of industrial resources to promote the development of SMIC's business; at the same time, SMIC will raise funds after the listing to expand production, and corresponding equipment manufacturers are also expected to accelerate orders . Optimistic about the cleaning equipment: the track has a good space and it is easy to take the lead in achieving most of the localization. With the complexity of the wafer process, the number of cleaning machines used will gradually increase in the future, and the proportion of cleaning machines in the entire line is expected to increase to 10% in the future. At the same time, because the technical threshold of the washing machine is relatively low, we believe that it is easier to take the lead in achieving full localization. We expect the space for wet cleaning equipment in mainland China to be between 1.5 billion and 2 billion US dollars per year. At present, for all fabs except Yangtze River Storage, the localization rate of cleaning machines is within 10%. Assuming that cleaning will be performed by 2023 The localization rate of the machine can reach 40%-50%, that is, the annual market space of domestic equipment is 4-7 billion.
The domestic leader of large silicon wafer, Central, participated in the strategic placement of SMIC. In-depth binding verification accelerated, and core equipment vendors benefited significantly. Zhonghuan’s 12-inch silicon wafer technology continues to break through, and verification is steadily advancing. It is steadily increasing, and it is expected that 2020-2021 will be a node for the company to usher in a large amount of verification. At present, Jingsheng Machinery has 80% of the entire 8-inch line and the supply capacity of 12-inch single crystal furnace and polishing machine. It has maintained close cooperation with major domestic silicon wafer factories such as Zhonghuan, Youyan, Jin Ruihong and Zhengzhou Hejing. Silicon wafers benefit most from the wave of localization. We expect that as the progress of the Wuxi project in Central accelerates, the equipment orders for the project are expected to land in the next few years, and Jingsheng Machinery will significantly benefit from gradually fulfilling the performance of semiconductor equipment.
Investment recommendation: focus on recommending the leading semiconductor equipment company [China Microelectronics Corporation] to enter the global supply chain of domestic etching equipment leader; [North China Huachuang] multi-service layout of the wafer equipment leader; exclusive key recommendation [to pure technology], domestic cleaning equipment The leader, shipping 10+ devices in the second quarter, is in the stage of capacity expansion; the leader of large silicon equipment [Jingsheng Electromechanical]; it is recommended to pay attention to [Changchuan Technology].
