"From the perspective of the market terminal, the opening hours of the market monitoring excavator in the domestic circulation sector increased by 5.01% year-on-year in the first two decades of June 2020"
In June 2020, the China Construction Machinery Market Index, or CMI, was 133.67, an increase of 2.62% year-on-year and a decrease of 1.04% month-on-month (according to the CMI judgment standard, 130<CMI≤170 is more optimistic, and the market is growing steadily).
In June 2020, China's construction machinery market index continued to decrease slightly month-on-month and increase slightly year-on-year, indicating that the domestic construction machinery market was gradually shifting to the off-season due to seasonal cyclical effects. Compared with last month, demand has weakened. As of June 23, the operating rates in South China, East China, Southwest China, Central China, and North China all exceeded 65%, a decrease of about 6 percentage points from the previous month; the operating rate in Northeast China has exceeded 73%, an increase of about 7 percentage points. Overall, the operating rate in most areas has decreased.
In the CMI index, the inventory index surveyed by the manufacturer group decreased by 1.6 percentage points from the previous period, and the production index decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points; the new order index surveyed by the agent group survey feedback increased by 5.7 percentage points year-on-year and decreased by 6.5 percentage points month-on-month , The user price index for the first-line market research decreased by 1.8 percentage points.
After more than two months of slight price increases, the price war continues to intensify, and the sales prices of some brands in some regions continue to fall.
According to the current data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Excavator Branch, the 25 mainframe manufacturing companies included in the statistics in May 2020, in May 2020, sold a total of 31,744 excavation machinery products, an increase of 68.0% year-on-year. The domestic market sold 29,521 units, a year-on-year increase of 76.3%. The export sales volume was 2,223 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Among them, sales in the domestic market were higher than our expectation of 3577 units. The market's popularity in May slightly exceeded expectations, and it is expected that although the market will decline month-on-month in June, the year-on-year growth rate will remain at a relatively high level.
Judging from the situation of the market terminal, the operating hours of the market monitoring excavator in the domestic circulation field in the first two decades of June 2020 increased by 5.01% year-on-year and decreased by 8.52% month-on-month.
From the perspective of increased investment on the demand side, from January to May 2020, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 199.494 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points from January to April. In terms of chain speed, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 5.87% in May.
From January to May 2020, the investment growth rate of the mining industry reached -8.7%, an improvement of 0.5%; fixed investment in the coal mining industry still maintained a positive growth of 4.0%, an increase of 0.3%. Infrastructure investment fell by 6.3% year-on-year, and the decline was 5.5 percentage points narrower than in January-April. Among them, the investment in the ecological protection and environmental governance industry increased by 2.5%; the investment in the transportation and postal industry decreased by 6.1%, the investment decline narrowed by 6.0 percentage points, the railway transportation industry investment decreased by 7.3 percentage points, and the road transportation industry investment decreased by 8.5%. Percentage point; the decline in investment in the public facilities management industry narrowed by 5.3 percentage points, and the decline in investment in the water conservancy management industry narrowed by 4.0 percentage points.
From January to May 2020, national real estate development investment was 459.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and the decrease was 3.0 percentage points narrower than that from January to April. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 7.628628 million square meters, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 0.2 percentage points from January to April. The floor space of new housing construction was 69.533 million square meters, a decrease of 12.8%, and the decrease narrowed by 5.6 percentage points. The land purchase area of real estate development enterprises was 47.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, and the decrease narrowed by 3.9 percentage points; the land transaction price was 242.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1%, and the growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points.
In terms of regions, investment in the eastern region decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from January to April; investment in the central region decreased by 15.1%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points; investment in the western region decreased by 0.9%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points. Percentage point; investment in the Northeast region fell by 2.5%, and the decline narrowed by 5.0 percentage points.
With the significant effect of the stable investment policy, investment in new construction projects continued to show a positive trend. The total investment of new construction projects planned for January-May increased by 7.9%, an increase of 6.8 percentage points from January-April. These circumstances indicate that future investment is expected to continue to pick up.
In the May PMI index, the construction industry business activity index was 60.8%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, the new order index increased by 4.8 percentage points from the previous month, reaching 58.0%, and the number of new construction contracts signed by construction companies continued to rise.
Judging from the summary information of all parties, most of the regional markets are still growing in June compared with the previous year, but compared with May, the overall market heat has decreased and the market has begun to enter the annual cyclical off-season.
Incorporating May 2020 excavator sales data and other related indicator data into the Chinese construction machinery market monitoring and forecasting data model, we predict that in June 2020, domestic excavator market sales will be 18,181 units, an increase of 46.5% year-on-year. The forecast data will be updated monthly based on upstream and downstream economic, investment and sales data, as well as immediate feedback from the first-tier market.
