Time flies. The last solar term in the autumn of 2022 - frost has passed, and it will soon usher in the beginning of winter. The weather in the north is getting cold day by day, and the footsteps of winter have been heard.
The domestic market of China's construction machinery industry, which has experienced good times for several years, is now entering the cold winter, shivering in the cold wind and struggling in the low ebb. Practitioners who have been used to the high growth of the market are like taking a roller coaster and falling from the peak to the bottom in an instant. They are far from being prepared and are at a loss.
Looking back, the last inflection point in the construction machinery industry was in 2012, which is exactly 10 years ago. The Chinese traditionally believe that one big fortune every 10 years is a cycle. How long will this market downturn last? How can we better survive the current cold winter of the industry? It is believed that different people have different views.
The actual situation of different enterprises and individuals varies greatly, and their resource endowments are different. The specific response measures vary from person to person and from enterprise to enterprise. This is not discussed here to avoid the situation of "why not eat minced meat". Based on the author's own experience, I mainly talk about some common things from the cognitive level, hoping to benefit everyone and face the industry winter with a more leisurely attitude.
first
Calm down and view the ups and downs of the industry correctly
Construction machinery is a highly cyclical industry with obvious periodicity. It is obviously affected by macroeconomic policies and national investment in infrastructure construction and fluctuates with it, which is a basic feature of the industry.
From the perspective of the development of things, the ups and downs of the industry are very normal, and the right path in the world is vicissitudes of life. Knowing this, it is easy to see the essence through the phenomenon and grasp the basic law of the development of things. Since it is an objective law and a general trend, it is difficult to change it by someone or an enterprise. So we should be able to face the market downturn calmly.
"One yin and one yang is the way". How popular the construction machinery industry was a few years ago, how depressed the industry may be in the next few years. Accept the downward trend of the market frankly, accept the things that cannot be changed, and strive to do well in the things that can be grasped and changed.
secondly
Looking back on yesterday and looking forward to tomorrow
Think about what you have been doing in the past three years and what you should do in the next three years. The current results are at least the result of what we did in the first three years, and what we do now will determine the results of individuals and enterprises in the next few years.
Is it difficult now? hard! Why is it difficult? Is it just because the market is bad? This is certainly not the only reason.
But in the same market, why is it that some people are on the verge of being out and others can still make profits? What is the underlying reason? Because their ideas are different, their directions are different, and their behaviors are different. The key is not to do differently now, but to do differently two or three years ago or even more. So now, the results will be different.
Take the excavator industry as an example. We all know that agents who excessively rely on the profit margin of new machine sales are in a difficult situation now, because the profit of new machine sales is decreasing year by year, and some models are even in a loss state. The market has declined sharply this year, and profits and cash flow will certainly shrink sharply. It must be a tough time.
But what about agents with diversified and balanced businesses if the profit from new machine sales is relatively small? For example, agents with relatively balanced development, standardized management and efficient operation of complete machine, parts, service and lease businesses, I think that in the face of the current difficulties, although the market will be better than before, it must be much better.
third
Re evaluate yourself and examine your shortcomings
The ancients examined themselves three times a day, which is impossible for ordinary people to do, but it is also necessary to reflect on it once in a while.
When the market was hot, most of the employees in the industry, from bosses to ordinary employees, gained relatively good profits, and many even achieved financial freedom and hierarchical advancement. When people succeed, they often think that they rely on their own ability and strength, but when they fail, they attribute it to the market and environment.
Is that really the case? Reflect on whether your ability, expertise, network resources, wisdom and accomplishments are far higher than others? If not, how can you get higher income and accumulate huge wealth in a short time? Perhaps more reason is to seize the market opportunities, just good luck.
"Heaven and earth are unkind, and all things are the dogs". Since we can catch up with good luck, we may also catch up with bad luck. It is normal to encounter difficulties. So don't blame others, reflect on your own shortcomings, complement your weaknesses and try to catch up with them.
fourth
Focus on process and establish comparative advantage
All competitive advantages are comparative advantages. This is true between people and between enterprises. The establishment of advantages is by no means overnight, but a process that requires time accumulation.
There is no mistake in the result orientation. The result is highly feasible and operable, which is favored by enterprise managers. However, we should pay more attention to the process while paying attention to the results, both of which should not be neglected.
"A journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step, and a platform of nine stories starts with a lot of soil". The accumulation of quantitative changes in the process can eventually lead to qualitative changes - to achieve the desired results. A good process can often achieve good results, while the results without a good process are often unsustainable.
Of course, there is no good process, and there may be good results, but this is just a fluke, more likely by accident. The key to the survival of an enterprise is to reduce risks and uncertainties in the future as much as possible. Therefore, we should not take chances, but must pay attention to the process. In business, we are afraid to regard fluke success as ability and chance as necessity.
As for comparative advantages, we can refer to our peers. Is the management efficient? What is the position of the enterprise's operation level and anti risk ability in the industry? If the above problems are better than most of the peers in the industry, the endurance will be better in the face of the market downturn, probably able to survive the cold winter until the spring is warm.
For individuals, is your position easy to be replaced by others? Are your core competencies available to others through learning in a short time? Ask yourself, if it is, don't complain about the market. It's really unqualified.
fifth
Take advantage of the industry adjustment period, learn and train, and constantly enrich and improve
When the industry was hot, everyone was busy making money. It was prosperous and peaceful. They were reluctant to take time to learn. Only when the industry reaches the low point can we calm down and reflect on our own behavior.
Instead of being confused and anxious, it is better to read more books, participate in more professional training, and learn some new skills to prepare for the uncertainty of the future. The so-called "gentleman lives in change to wait for life and cultivates himself to wait for time".
"Kung Fu is beyond poetry". The gap between people and between enterprises mainly depends on whether they are good at learning and whether they can continue to learn. Most of the real learning improvement is often in difficulties, but it is easier to show it in the process of smooth use. "King Wen acted in the Book of Changes and Confucius wrote the Spring and Autumn Annals." Most of the great people experienced the low ebb of life and finally achieved great success.
sixth
Focus on customers and return to the essence of the market
In recent years, with the rapid development of informatization and digitalization, our lives have been greatly changed. Excess information, especially the emergence of We Media, has a great impact on us.
At the same time, the voice of industry innovation and enterprise business model reform is rising. Of course, innovation and reform are not wrong, but also inevitable for social development. But to change for the sake of change, to innovate for the sake of innovation is off the right track. In recent years, the obsession with online marketing and the over exaggeration of the efficacy of We Media have virtually caused interference and even anxiety to some decision-makers in the industry.
In fact, informatization and digitalization are only means and tools to better serve customers and improve market competitiveness. Take the current popular short videos as an example, it has indeed generated traffic giants, and it is a golden gift to bring goods every day. But in the final analysis, it is still more in the areas of communication (promotion) and convenience (channel) at the marketing level, which does not touch the fundamental value of the enterprise - customers and costs (products and prices), and it is easier to copy and imitate. Not to mention the extent to which this promotion method is suitable for the small vertical industry of construction machinery.
What is easy to imitate is difficult to become the core competitiveness of an enterprise, so the essence of business is to return to the market and customers. Analyzing the change of customer demand, properly leading and guiding customer demand, continuously improving customer experience, and continuously enhancing customer stickiness are the core of our attention.
last
Don't be too pessimistic, keep an optimistic attitude, and believe that the haze will disappear
The weather changes at four times, the moon turns cloudy and sunny, and the industry fluctuates. When the industry was good a few years ago, people were often too optimistic about the future, which led to the illusion that high growth was the norm. In the mainstream public opinion atmosphere of this industry, there is a serious lack of crisis awareness. After encountering the cruel industry reality this year, the public opinion turned over overnight, and was generally pessimistic.
It is true that the market has declined greatly this year, and many enterprises have encountered operating difficulties, but it is not as serious as it is said, and it is far from being exhausted. The scale manufacturers in the industry are operating normally, and no large number of enterprises have closed down or changed careers (except for a few speculators, who are already temporary workers in the industry). So don't be too pessimistic, belittle yourself, and the sky won't fall. Enterprises that focus on the construction machinery industry and have made solid efforts in product and management in recent years will not be easily out as long as they do not make big mistakes.
The reason why it is difficult to feel now is that the previous years were too easy and the contrast was too big. With the policy dividend of reform and opening up superimposed on the talent dividend, China's economy is developing rapidly, and all walks of life are growing at a high speed, enjoying the feast of rapid economic development. In the incremental market, the cake is growing rapidly and the wealth is easy to distribute, so people intuitively feel that it is easy to earn money and live a happy life. Now that the economic growth rate is lower than before, it will be very uncomfortable.
According to the economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in late October, the GDP growth rate from January to September this year was 3% year on year, including 3.9% in the third quarter. Looking at major economies in the world, it is still a relatively good growth rate. Considering the huge market size and regional differences in China, there is still much room for future development. As one of the important industries for national development and construction, construction machinery still has a large absolute demand every year.
Therefore, for competitive enterprises, there is no need to worry too much. This round of adjustment is a good thing. After reshuffle, the industry order will be better and the competitive environment will be more benign. I believe that those who are eliminated should be eliminated. In the end, Caesar belongs to Caesar, and God belongs to God.
Winter has come, can spring be far behind? I hope you will have firm confidence and stick to the arrival of the industry spring!
