Although the sales volume in the same period was only 53,000, the sales volume of heavy trucks in October still failed to reverse. Will the market achieve year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter? What will be the total sales volume of the heavy truck industry in 2022?
The sales volume in October decreased by 3% month on month and 6% year on year
"Nine gold and ten silver" eventually became "nine copper and ten iron". According to the preliminary data, in October this year, China's heavy truck market sold about 50000 vehicles (invoicing caliber, including exports and new energy), down 3% month on month from September this year, down 6% from the 53500 vehicles in the same period last year, and a net decrease of about 3500 vehicles. 50000 units is the lowest sales volume in October since 2016, lower than that in October 2021, and even lower than that in October 2014 (51300 units). This October is also the 18th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year.
It can be said that if the overseas export of China's heavy trucks had not been "awesome" (only Sinotruk contributed 10000 vehicles to the export in October) and continued to grow significantly year on year, the overall performance of the market would have declined even more in October. It is estimated that the export proportion of heavy trucks in October reached nearly 40% of the total market sales!
After the end of October, the year-on-year decline in the last three months has been at a low level: the year-on-year decline of sales in August was 10.02%, the year-on-year decline in September was 12.46%, and the year-on-year decline in October was 6.48%, the lowest in history since the beginning of 2022. On the whole, the monthly year-on-year decrease from August to October was only 9.7%, far lower than the average monthly decrease of 59.6% from January to July. However, the decrease in the average decline is more due to the low base in the same period last year than to the recovery of terminal market demand. The year-on-year decline is due to the low demand and high inventory, while the decrease is due to the low base in the same period last year.
On a cumulative basis, the heavy truck market from January to October this year sold 573000 units, down 55% from 1287000 units in the same period last year, or as much as 710000 units.
In addition, the wholesale sales volume is not awesome, and the actual sales situation is also very general. From the data of Shanghai Insurance, except for the sales of 50000 units in March and June, the actual sales in other months did not exceed 50000 units from January to September this year. The actual sales in August and September were only more than 40,000, and the average monthly sales from July to September was only 40,400. From this dimension, it can be seen that domestic terminal demand has not improved, leaving only export and new energy heavy trucks in the "hard support".
What will happen to the four seasons? It is estimated that 680000 vehicles will be fixed throughout the year
As for the reason why the market demand is sluggish and the sales volume of heavy trucks is lower than expected, it is actually the problem of economic slowdown and lack of confidence. In addition, various auto enterprises are still "digesting" relatively high inventory, which leads to the "gold nine silver ten" becoming "copper nine iron ten".
Moreover, from the current trend, there is no sign of recovery in the commercial vehicle industry and even the heavy truck industry in the fourth quarter. Recently, the epidemic has spread rapidly throughout the country, many places have implemented a large area of "silence", and consumption and investment continue to be at a low ebb (let alone the continuous decline of real estate). Heavy trucks are the means of production and means of transportation. If the suppliers and shippers, as the "upstream" of the upstream transportation industry, are unable to provide a relatively rich supply of goods, then the business of logistics carriers and logistics companies will not improve, and there will be no new demand for vehicle purchase and replacement.
This can also explain why the market demand has not improved since the implementation of the policy of 10% reduction of highway tolls from October 1.
On October 21 this year, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to strengthen the policy of ensuring smooth transportation and logistics and supporting the rescue of relevant market entities to support the stable operation of the economy. The meeting pointed out that transportation and logistics are the lifeblood of the market economy. It is necessary to ensure smooth traffic and strengthen support. The meeting proposed that in the fourth quarter of this year, the toll truck toll will be reduced by 10%, targeted financial policy support will be given to toll road operators, and financing costs will be appropriately reduced. After the introduction of this policy, many people predicted that the heavy truck market would recover in the fourth quarter, thus laying the foundation for the market to improve next year. However, judging from the industry situation in October, we haven't seen any improvement in terminal demand, which is mainly due to the fact that consumption and investment are still sluggish. For heavy truck users, 10% reduction is "cost reduction", but the problem of "efficiency increase" has not been solved. In the market, the supply of goods is greatly reduced, there are more vehicles and fewer goods, the freight rate is low, and the profit margin of transport units is low due to lower consumption and investment, It is still the "sword of Damocles" hanging on users' heads.
Even if many institutions have been holding high expectations for fixed asset investment, the situation is not optimistic. According to some public information reports, the gap between local fiscal revenue and expenditure has reached the highest level in history since this year. On the one hand, with the continuous decline of real estate, the revenue from land transfer, which is crucial in local finance, has shrunk sharply, and local revenue has decreased significantly (from January to September, the cumulative value of the revenue from state-owned land transfer was 3850.7 billion yuan, down 28.3% year on year); On the other hand, from the beginning of this year to September, the cumulative health expenditure reached 10.7%, climbed to 24.63% year on year in September, 13 percentage points higher than that of last month, and became the fastest growing financial expenditure item, with great pressure on financial expenditure. The gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure is so large that it is bound to seriously drag the local government to promote infrastructure investment and consumption to boost the local economy.
In this case, it is reasonable that the demand for cars in the fourth quarter is sluggish and has not improved. It is estimated that due to the downturn of the industry in the first and second half of the year, the annual sales volume of heavy trucks in 2022 is expected to be about 680000, down about 51% year on year.
