Adhere to the theme of promoting high-quality development, and enhance the effective drive of the industry to green consumption and the innovation support of the automobile power. New energy vehicles are of vane significance.
To expand domestic demand, products must adapt to market demand; A powerful automobile country cannot be separated from industrial supporting facilities. As one of the core components, the power battery can be called the "heart" of new energy vehicles, and its importance is far greater than that of the engine compared with traditional fuel vehicles. The power battery accounts for nearly 40% of the vehicle cost, twice as much as the traditional fuel vehicle power system, and has become the commanding point of the reconstruction of the automobile value chain. It can be said that in the industrial transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goal, power battery has become the key to strengthen the competition level of new energy vehicles and build the competitiveness of the automobile industry.
At present, in the process of the development of automobile electrification, the power battery technology innovation has played a leading role. If the power battery is strong, the new energy vehicle is strong; If the power battery is weak, the new energy vehicle is weak. Focusing on the power battery industry now is to focus on the future development of the new energy vehicle industry. After more than 10 years of hard pursuit, China's power battery industry has not only broken the European and American technology patent blockade, but also broken the market monopoly of Japan and South Korea, becoming a leader in the new round of global power battery competition.
Why do the latecomers take the lead
The counter attack of China's power battery industry has attracted worldwide attention.
A 3:57 video, a tweet. On June 23 this year, Ningde Times released the third generation CTP (Cell To Pack) battery pack technology in this minimalist way, and announced that "Kirin Battery" will be launched in mass production next year.
The launch of such low-key new technologies and products has exceeded expectations. Shortly after the launch of Kirin Battery, Li Xiang, the founder of Ideal Auto, commented on his microblog that "see you next year". Since then, Avita, Nezha and other car companies have also interacted with Ningde Times. On August 27, Ningde Times announced the first series of car brands equipped with Kirin batteries, namely Geely's high-end electric car "Krypton" and Huawei's cooperation with Celes.
The Kirin battery, which was first launched in Ningde Times, not only attracted the attention of global car enterprises, but also attracted the interpretation of various technical celebrities. Some critics believe that the appearance of Kirin battery has an important impact and significance on the existing new energy automobile industry pattern and the competition between the Chinese and Western new energy automobile industries.
It is not long since Ningde entered the power battery industry. The earliest lithium battery patent was bought by its founder Zeng Yuqun from Bell Laboratories. Eleven years ago, Zeng Yuqun returned to his hometown to establish the Ningde Era; In 2012, we received the order from BMW Brilliance; In 2015, the installed capacity surpassed Samsung and LG of South Korea for the first time; In 2017, it surpassed Panasonic in Japan and became the world leader in power batteries. It has won the title since then. In the first nine months of this year, the cumulative installed capacity of battery in Ningde Times reached 119.8 GWh, accounting for 35.1% of the global market share. This means that "for every three electric vehicles in the world, one is equipped with Ningde era batteries".
The rise of Ningde era is the epitome of high-quality development of China's power battery industry. From the perspective of the development history of power batteries, lithium batteries were invented in the United States in the 1970s, commercialized in Japan in the 1990s, and expanded in South Korea in the first 10 years of the 21st century. In 2010, Japan accounted for half of the global lithium battery market share and South Korea for 30%, while China, as a "latecomer", has not yet entered the market. However, we soon achieved a perfect counter attack.
According to SNE Research, a market research institute in South Korea, in the first half of this year, China accounted for nearly 60% of the world's power battery shipments by country, while South Korea dropped to 20%, while Japan only accounted for more than 10%, while Europe and the United States could ignore it. In terms of the installed capacity of enterprises, 15 of the top 20 power battery manufacturers in the world are from China; Among the 12 power battery manufacturers whose growth rate exceeds 100%, 11 are from China. In the top 10 list, Chinese power battery manufacturers occupy six seats. Among them, the market share of Ningde Era has reached 34%, 20 percentage points ahead of the second place in South Korea LG New Energy, ranking first in the world; BYD has a market share of 12%, surpassing Panasonic in Japan and ranking third in the world. China Innovation Airlines, Guoxuan Hi Tech, Xinwangda and Honeycomb Energy ranked seventh to tenth respectively; Japanese and Korean power battery manufacturers only occupy 4 seats in the top 10, with a total market share of 35.4%.
"In the past, China mainly focused on battery integration. Now, a power battery industry system with the most complete and largest global industrial chain, from material research and development, battery production, recycling to equipment support, has been formed. The four major raw materials, positive pole, negative pole, electrolyte and diaphragm, have basically got rid of dependence on imports. The localization rate of lithium battery equipment has also reached more than 90%, and the localization rate of equipment for key processes has reached more than 80%." Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Association, said that the cost performance of electric vehicles in China has improved rapidly. The driving range has grown from more than 100 kilometers in the past to 600 kilometers to 800 kilometers, or even further. The cost of some models has become competitive with that of fuel vehicles. The safety, charging and other issues that have been worried about have also been improved. The development of power battery industry plays a key role in promoting the market acceptance of electric vehicles.
To sort out the development process of new energy vehicles and power batteries in China, Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC National Committee and former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believed that there were five experiences worth summarizing: first, strengthening the Party's leadership over economic work, giving play to the advantages of the socialist system, and concentrating on major events.? ?Practice has shown that as long as everyone is coordinated, works together and promotes together, this great force of unity is incomparable to any country. Second, seize the pure electric drive development opportunity of "lane changing overtaking". We carefully studied and judged, advanced deployment, and the "first mover" of new energy vehicles, creating opportunities for the power battery industry to counter attack. Third, maintain strategic focus. Even in the face of all kinds of doubts, we should stick to a blueprint for industrial development and do not repeatedly "pull the drawer". Fourth, we will build an innovation system with enterprises as the main body. Enterprises will become the main body of innovation in new energy vehicles and power batteries, as well as the main body of industrialization of new technologies. Fifth, the government guided the development of new energy vehicles and power battery industries from top-level design, technological innovation, standard system, fiscal and tax policies and other aspects.
In the initial stage of global new energy vehicles, China has prospectively listed them into strategic emerging industries, and the central and local governments have successively issued a series of policies to guide and support them. By the end of 2021, China has formulated and issued more than 300 policies and measures covering 12 aspects, issued 106 national and industrial standards, and established an all-round, systematic and multi-dimensional new energy vehicle industry policy and standard system. At the same time, on the technical route, adhere to the "three vertical" concept of pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles, and layout the overall technological innovation chain; With power battery, motor and electric control as the "three horizontal", build a technical supply system for key components. The formulation of these policies and measures and the establishment of the technical route not only effectively promote the market-oriented application of new energy vehicles, but also drive the great development of the power battery industry and energy storage technology.
In large-scale market applications, core technical indicators such as power battery energy density, safety performance and service life have been improved, and the cost has decreased rapidly. In 2011, the specific energy of mainstream power battery was only about 100 watt hours/kg, and the system cost was 4 yuan/watt hour. The battery accounted for more than half of the vehicle cost. By 2021, the specific energy of the battery will reach 270 Wh/kg, the system cost will be reduced to less than 1 yuan/Wh, and the battery will account for about 1/3 of the vehicle cost. The significant changes in these technical indicators indicate that the cost of some new energy vehicles has dropped to a level where they can compete with fuel vehicles in the market without relying on financial subsidies.
"The initial cost of lithium batteries is quite high, and it is impossible to popularize them without subsidies." Dong Yang, chairman of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, believes that the innovative form of subsidies has not only promoted the rapid development of new energy vehicles in China in the past 10 years, but also advanced the development of new energy vehicles around the world by five to ten years.
Driven by innovation, Chinese power battery enterprises are constantly shaping new advantages in scale, cost and technology, and pushing China's power battery industry to the top of the world. According to the statistics of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in the first nine months of this year, China's power battery output totaled 372.1 GWh, up 176.2% year on year. Among them, the loading amount is 193.8 GWh, accounting for about half. When the export volume reaches 90.6 GW, it is close to 1/4. This year, the sales volume of power battery in China is expected to exceed 500 GW/h and the output value will exceed 500 billion yuan.
Where is the focus of innovation
Opening the map of the world power battery industry, we can clearly see the pattern: China, Japan and South Korea are firmly in the first camp; The innovative products represented by Ningde Times Qilin battery, BYD blade battery and Tesla 4680 battery lead the way; New technologies such as sodium ion battery and semi-solid battery are still on the eve of mass production, far from meeting the conditions for changing the existing industrial pattern. Obviously, it is difficult for European and American enterprises to shake the position of battery enterprises in China, Japan and South Korea.
However, the current power battery technology is not perfect. "Compared with China's innovation in applied technology, Europe and the United States have strong basic research capabilities, and the automotive and chemical industries are developed. It is not impossible to have disruptive innovative technologies." Zhang Yongwei said that China should extend from production leading to basic innovation, and strengthen the capacity building of basic research in chemistry, physics, materials, etc. At the same time, as the power battery moves towards the "T era", it is also necessary to strengthen the innovation of battery manufacturing technology and manufacturing process, improve the yield and reduce production costs.
"The United States, Japan, South Korea, and Europe are increasing their support for the next generation of batteries. China still faces the risk of being dumped due to technological change." Zhang Yongwei, for example, plans to achieve mass production of solid state batteries and lithium metal batteries by 2030 in the United States; Japan plans to achieve mass production of all solid state batteries by 2030; South Korea will invest 306.6 billion won from 2023 to 2028 to achieve the commercialization of solid state batteries, lithium sulfur batteries and lithium metal batteries in advance; The European Union has approved the provision of 3.2 billion euros in aid to seven member countries participating in battery projects to support battery technology research and project innovation.
According to the development plans of major countries and regions in the world, 2030 is a key node. "It is expected that the next generation batteries, such as solid state batteries and lithium sulfur batteries, will enter the market on a large scale around 2030." Zhang Yongwei suggested that China should increase investment in research and development of the next generation of batteries, improve the industrial chain of new technologies, and seek appropriate application scenarios to promote technology implementation and iteration.
Only by correctly recognizing changes can we seize opportunities; Only by grasping the trend can we win the future. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member and professor of Tsinghua University, told reporters that "low-carbon, high-end and intelligent" is the development trend and innovation direction of the power battery industry.
——Low carbonization, including low energy consumption, low emission and low consumption. "Now the material cost of our power battery accounts for more than 75%. For example, the electricity charge per ton of graphite anode materials accounts for nearly 60%." How to solve this problem? Ouyang Minggao said that the preparation of low-carbon key materials should focus on the recycling of power battery materials to reduce costs, emissions and energy consumption.
——High end, including high quality, high security and high technology. In the past 10 years, China has made breakthroughs in battery innovation, and achieved significant cost reduction and competitiveness improvement. However, safety accidents also occur from time to time, which shows that the industry is still facing challenges in terms of safety. From the current structure innovation to the material system innovation, this is the inevitable trend of power battery development. At present, a new round of competition for innovation and breakthrough in battery material system is emerging all over the world. By 2025, the existing lithium battery is expected to achieve 350 watt hours/kg energy density; By 2030, gradually transition from liquid to solid to achieve 400 watt hours/kg energy density; By 2035, the industrialization of new system batteries with 500 watt hours/kg energy density will be realized.
——Intelligence, including intelligent design, intelligent manufacturing and intelligent control. The first is intelligent design, which has gone through three stages of development from experimental trial and error, to simulation driven, and then to intelligent full-automatic. This way can greatly reduce costs and save 70% to 80% of research and development costs. The core technology in the middle is high-precision modeling technology and efficient optimization algorithm; Secondly, intelligent manufacturing. Battery manufacturing is a kind of extreme manufacturing, and no impurities can be introduced, otherwise there will be potential safety hazards. Therefore, we must adopt intelligence. From digital production process simulation to digital production workshop, and then to the industrial Internet, we must achieve more than 3000 quality monitoring parameters for the production process; The third is intelligent control. "For temperature, gas and pressure, we can only manage them now and control them during charging." Ouyang Minggao said that the next step is to put the sensor into the battery for all-round control. In terms of software, artificial intelligence should be introduced. In a word, China's power battery industry should also realize the full chain intelligence from material selection, battery design, manufacturing, use and recycling.
Whether there is overcapacity
Driven by the "dual carbon" goal, the new energy industry, including power battery, has become a golden track with long slope and thick snow. It is not only vigorously pursued by the capital market, but also an important hand for local governments to promote industrial transformation and upgrading and a "hot spot" for investment attraction.
On September 21, Xinwangda Co., Ltd. announced that its subsidiary Xinwangda Electric Vehicle Battery Co., Ltd. planned to sign the Project Investment Agreement with Yiwu Municipal People's Government to invest in the construction of a new energy power battery production base in Yiwu. The total investment of the project is planned to be about 21.3 billion yuan, which will form a 50 GWh capacity. Since last year, Xinwangda has signed contracts with a number of local governments to accelerate the construction of production bases in Huizhou, Nanchang, Nanjing, Zhuhai and other places, with a planned investment amount of more than 70 billion yuan and a total planned capacity of more than 220 GW hours.
More enterprises expand their production "as much as they can". According to the public information, with 2025 as the time node, the capacity of Honeycomb Energy is planned to be 600 GWh, the capacity of China Innovation Airlines is planned to be 500 GWh, the capacity of Guoxuan Hi Tech is planned to be 300 GWh, the capacity of Ningde Times is planned to be 839 GWh, the capacity of BYD is planned to exceed 600 GWh, and the capacity of Yiwei Lithium Energy will also exceed 200 GWh. The capacity planning of the above six enterprises alone reached 3000 GWh, more than 10 times the output of power batteries last year.
It is inevitable that people will worry about the overcapacity of power battery when they are working hard and quickly. Ouyang Minggao said that with the rapid development of global electric vehicles, the battery capacity has expanded rapidly. Based on the prediction of industrial investment information, China's power battery production capacity may reach 3000 GWh in 2025, with excess.
While visiting enterprises and places, the reporter also contacted many ministries and associations to try to get a more accurate figure. However, as the new production expansion plan of the enterprise is released every week, and new production bases are being started or put into production, the number is always changing.
In fact, it is not easy to judge whether an industry is overcapacity. In the world, capacity utilization rate or equipment utilization rate is often used as the evaluation index. If the equipment operation rate exceeds 90%, it is considered as insufficient capacity, while if it is lower than 79%, it is considered as overcapacity. Many experts suggested that such evaluation indicators are not applicable to a rapidly growing emerging industry. Moreover, the planned capacity is not equal to the actual capacity. The capacity targets announced by some power battery manufacturers are mainly used for competition publicity and local preferential policies, which have a lot of water content. In actual production activities, enterprises often adjust the scale and speed of capacity implementation according to market changes. Therefore, we should not make sweeping generalizations.
"At present, there is no scientific statistical method for the effective capacity of power battery." Dong Yang said, "The power battery is not a general product, and its model varies from car to car." This is not "a simple addition problem". Moreover, according to the current market feedback, "the high-level power batteries required by new energy vehicles are still in short supply, and this situation will last until the end of next year at least".
Driven by market rules, the power battery industry has shown good industrial concentration. Dong Yang told reporters that five years ago, when CAAC compiled the white list of auto power battery supply, there were more than 200 manufacturers; By the first nine months of this year, the number of effective new energy vehicle power battery supply enterprises in China had decreased to 48, and the market concentration of the top three, top five and top ten power battery enterprises had reached 76.6%, 83.9% and 94.4% respectively.
The capacity "competition" in the power battery industry is affected by multiple factors: First, the rapid growth of global new energy vehicles has led to "battery shortage", which has forced car and battery enterprises to accelerate capacity expansion; Second, in order to seize more customer resources, battery enterprises reserve capacity in advance; Third, the R&D and application process of new materials for power batteries is relatively long. The relatively stable existing material system leads to slow technology iteration. The improvement of intelligent manufacturing process makes scale effect an important means to reduce costs and improve market competitiveness, and the expansion intention of major battery enterprises continues to increase; Fourth, local governments continue to increase investment attraction in the field of new energy vehicles and power batteries. While promoting the development of industrial clusters, they also encourage enterprises to have the motivation to accelerate the increase of investment scale.
"The production capacity, industrial chain, talents, scale and technology iteration speed of domestic power batteries have already had a competitive advantage globally. Under this competitive advantage, lithium battery enterprise brands will have a development window of two to three years." Yang Hongxin, the chairman and CEO of Honeycomb Energy, said frankly, "We must complete a series of layouts within the above-mentioned window period. The core key word is to be fast. We should quickly expand capacity, develop iterative technologies, develop customers, improve the supply chain, and add talents. Everything should be fast!"
Experts also analyzed that with the industrial reform triggered by electrification and intelligence, the automotive products, supply chain, and industrial and market ecology are also being comprehensively reshaped. In the past, due to the lack of technology and product strength, in the traditional fuel vehicle market, China's annual exports of finished vehicles were very small, and most of them could only be sold in China. Now, new energy vehicles have global comparative advantages, and the proportion of exports in total vehicles is increasing. Therefore, to measure whether the power battery has excess capacity, we need not only to consider domestic demand, but also to have a global perspective.
As the key to building a new power system with new energy as the main body, under the vision of the "double carbon" goal, energy storage projects have been accelerated, which has also formed a strong support for the power battery capacity scale. "Climate change forces the energy transformation, especially the European energy crisis triggered by the Russian Ukrainian conflict, which makes the energy storage industry's demand for batteries grow rapidly. In addition, the price and profit of energy storage are good. In the first nine months of this year, energy storage batteries have accounted for nearly 50% of power demand." Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the All China Passenger Transport Federation, believes that to judge whether the power battery has excess capacity, we should not only consider the demand of the automobile market, but also consider the growth space of the energy storage market.
Moderate overcapacity is not only conducive to the full competition of enterprises, but also conducive to the improvement of industrial efficiency and optimization of industrial structure. However, serious overcapacity will lead to a series of problems such as vicious competition in the market, repeated construction, and decline in enterprise economic benefits, which will not only hinder the sustainable and healthy development of the industry, but also cause great harm to macroeconomic development. "In essence, capacity upgrading is demand driven, especially when advantageous enterprises have advantageous products and are eager to consolidate their market position. However, it is bound to local high investment subsidies, and capacity expansion, which is obviously lacking in technical advantages and market competitiveness, poses a greater risk to both enterprises and local governments." Zhang Yongwei said.
The potential overcapacity risk under the industry investment boom has also attracted the attention of relevant ministries and commissions. On September 15, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, publicly responded that at present, new energy vehicles have become a frontier industry, attracting a large number of technologies and capital to converge and gather. In addition, some local governments also have the desire to transform and upgrade. Under the combined effect of various factors, blind investment and repeated construction do exist in some provinces, cities and regions. He also said that these problems are problems in development, and will be gradually digested and solved as the industry grows and matures.
How to control raw materials
Vehicle enterprises do not earn much money, and battery manufacturers do not make much profit. So where is the profit of the new energy vehicle industry?
It is not difficult to answer this question. In the power battery industry supply chain, there are upstream, middle and downstream. The upstream raw material suppliers are represented by Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, the midstream battery manufacturers are represented by Ningde Times and Zhongchuangxin Airlines, and the downstream vehicle enterprises are represented by GAC and Xiaopeng. Since last year, the prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other battery raw materials have soared, especially lithium carbonate has soared from more than 50000 yuan per ton to more than 500000 yuan per ton at present. The upstream lithium suppliers have made a lot of money.
If the core technology is not in your hands, you will be "stuck"; Similarly, if key resources are not tightly held in the supply chain dominated by themselves, they will become "migrant workers".
On July 21 this year, at the 2022 World Power Battery Conference held in Yibin, Sichuan Province, Zeng Qinghong, Chairman of GAC Group, roast in his speech: "The cost of power batteries has accounted for 40% to 60% of our cars. Now I am working for Ningde Times."
"Usually, customers complain to us that the car factory doesn't make much money. Did your battery factory take away all the profits?" Wu Kai, the chief scientist of Ningde Times, could not help crying out at the conference, "Although our company has not lost money this year, it is basically struggling on the edge of profit, which is very painful."
"Half sea water, half flame". The announcement of 11 lithium mining companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets shows that the results of the first three quarters of this year have all achieved substantial growth. Among them, Tianqi Lithium's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters was 15.981 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2916.44%; Ganfeng Lithium's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters was 14.795 billion yuan, up 498.31% year on year. However, the new power of head car building, including Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideals, and the new energy brands of traditional car enterprises, such as Landu, Jihu, Zhiji and Avita, are losing money.
As for the reasons for the rising lithium price, the industry analysis: First, the battery capacity on the demand side is increasing faster than the mining of salt lakes on the supply side, resulting in a staged mismatch between supply and demand. For example, it only takes 6 months for lithium battery enterprises to expand the capacity of 30 GWh, 1 year for upstream anode materials and 2 years for lithium salt capacity; However, the development cycle of lithium mine takes 3 to 5 years, and that of salt lake lithium extraction takes 5 to 8 years. Second, foreign-funded enterprises, such as Yabao Group, which have a large number of mine resources, are very cautious in capacity expansion. Third, China does not have the right to speak about lithium and related bulk commodities, and the current price is "taking the rhythm" by international speculators. In addition, the trend of commodity futures prices has risen, lithium ore sellers are reluctant to sell, buyers are hoarding, middlemen are hoarding, etc., resulting in a rapid supply shortage, which is misinterpreted by the market as a possible problem at the supply side; The unexpected development of the electric vehicle market seems to confirm the market's judgment that the supply is insufficient, thus causing the price of lithium carbonate to soar.
No matter what the specific reasons are, it is difficult to say that the industrial chain is stable and safe if there is no guarantee of reasonable profits in all links. In fact, there is no shortage of lithium resources in the world. According to the data of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2021, the world's proven lithium resources are 88.56 million tons, and the reserves are about 22 million tons. Ouyang Minggao calculated an account: taking NCM (nickel cobalt manganese) 811 battery as an example, 227 TWh power battery can be produced, and more than 2.27 billion cars can be installed with 100 kWh battery per car. Due to the rising value of materials, the recycling industry ushers in opportunities. It is estimated that 125 GWh will be recycled in 2025. Overall, the resources are fully adequate.
"Recently, a lot of lithium ores have been found in China, but the mining is not so fast and the supply is tight." Wang Chuanfu, BYD's chairman, insisted that China's lithium resources were sufficient on the whole to meet the full electrification needs of more than 300 million cars in China. However, he also pointed out that cobalt and nickel are scarce relative to lithium resources, so we need to take precautions.
"China's power battery industry chain has obvious advantages in smelting, battery materials, battery processing and other links, but the reserves of core upstream resources are limited and the dependence on foreign countries is high. Although lithium resources are not scarce, accounting for about 6% of the world's reserves, but the endowment is poor, the development cost is high, and the dependence on foreign countries is still more than 70%; the reserves of nickel and cobalt resources only account for about 2% of the world's reserves, and the dependence on foreign countries is more than 80% for a long time." Zhang Yongwei told the reporter that in recent years, although our government and enterprises have increased the acquisition layout of overseas related mineral resources, large transnational giants in Europe and the United States have indirectly mastered a large number of high-quality lithium, cobalt and nickel mineral resources for a long time. Once a national resource war is formed in the world, it will improve the difficulty and cost of obtaining resources for Chinese enterprises and reduce the cost competitiveness of China's power battery products.
Zhang Yongwei suggested that the state should take the upstream key resources of power battery into consideration of strategic resources, increase the exploration and development of relevant resources, strengthen guidance and differential management in resource allocation, financial revenue, major projects, mining land and other aspects, and establish a national security and reserve system for key resources. At the same time, we will vigorously support enterprises in the global distribution of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other resources, and strengthen policy support for enterprises in the acquisition and merger of overseas scarce resources.
How to solve the recycling problem
The shabby disassembly tools, the batteries placed in disorder, and the black liquid flowing everywhere... Zhang Yuping, the deputy general manager of Greenmey Co., Ltd., showed several photos of the power battery recycling workshop to the reporter, which was shocking.
After the power battery is "retired" from new energy vehicles, it does not mean that it has been used up, but has great potential for recycling development and reuse. For example, the battery can be "degraded for use" by means of modification, remanufacture, etc. in the form of cascade utilization, which can be used in power grid energy storage, communication base stations, low-speed electric vehicles and other fields to maximize the use of surplus energy.
"Over the past two years, the battery recycling industry has received more and more attention." Bao Wei, the general manager of Zhejiang Huayou Recycling Technology Co., Ltd., sighed, "Some investors said that this is the only blue ocean in the industry chain. In addition, the EU Battery and Waste Battery Regulations put forward a requirement for the proportion of renewable materials, which further increased the industry's popularity."
At present, different market entities are taking advantage of their own advantages to accelerate the distribution of power battery recycling. The main participants in the domestic battery recycling industry are generally divided into four categories: first, vehicle enterprises represented by BYD, Weilai, BAIC New Energy, etc; Second, battery enterprises represented by Ningde Times and Guoxuan High Tech; Third, material enterprises represented by Huayou Cobalt Industry and Xiamen Tungsten Industry; Fourth, the third party enterprises represented by Greenland and Tianqi.
"Power battery recycling can greatly alleviate the shortage of raw materials supply. By 2050, half of the power battery materials in the whole industry will come from the recycling of discarded batteries." Zeng Yuqun said.
Although this statement has caused considerable controversy in the industry, it still makes people look forward to the prospect of power battery recycling. However, it is clear that the power battery recycling industry has not yet reached a mature stage, and there is still a long way to go before it can take on such an important task.
The first problem facing the industry is the difficulty of recycling, which is precisely the difficulty of recycling through formal channels.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of August this year, more than 190 automobile production, power battery comprehensive utilization and other enterprises have set up 10235 recycling service outlets in 326 prefecture level administrative regions in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and cities across the country. Car owners can go to these outlets and hand over the retired batteries according to the residual value of the capacity. The reporter contacted some outlets in these directories at random, but the staff of many outlets reflected that the business had not been carried out yet, and a few outlets said that they would only accept their own brand of retired batteries. Some network staff even did not know that their stores were included in the list.
Different from the "slow heat" of regular outlets, due to the huge profit margin brought by the high price of raw materials, a large number of private enterprises or individuals are attracted to hoard goods and resell retired power batteries. The recycling price is also rising, even 40% more expensive than the new battery at the highest time. In the opinion of Wu Songquan, a senior chief expert of China Automotive Technology Research Center Co., Ltd. and the chief engineer of China Automobile Political Research Institute, the price of raw materials for power batteries has increased nearly 10 times, driving the price of used batteries up, which is a normal market law in itself, but the phenomenon that "waste prices are more expensive than new products" is very abnormal.
The rising recovery price has led to the intensification of the phenomenon of "bad money driving out good money" in the industry. Wu Songquan is worried that the power battery recycling market is often "the one with the highest price". However, those with high prices do not necessarily have the ability to recycle waste power batteries, which makes it impossible for standardized enterprises to receive batteries and develop; However, non-standard enterprises are popular, bringing high safety and environmental protection risks, thus affecting the healthy development of the entire power battery recycling industry.
"Although the recovery of power batteries in China has experienced a period of development, the current recovery of waste power batteries through formal means is still relatively low, and is concentrated in Shenzhen, Hefei, Beijing and other cities where the promotion of new energy vehicles is strong." Wei Honglian, the chief engineer of the Solid Waste and Chemical Management Technology Center of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said that the current recycling of power batteries mainly comes from the waste power batteries generated from research, development, testing and production. There is still little recycling of retired batteries from new energy vehicles.
For the construction of power battery recycling service outlets, Wei Honglian suggested that we should promote the establishment of national standards such as outlet construction, recycling, and cascade utilization design guidelines, design a unified recycling process, and require all enterprises to strictly follow the process.
In addition to promoting the construction of offline outlets, online businesses have also started to layout. Chen Xionghui, Deputy General Manager of Huayou Recycling Operations, said that at present, Huayou can achieve a recovery rate of more than 98% of cobalt and more than 95% of lithium at the manufacturing end. In the future, it is no problem to continuously recycle renewable materials into the supply chain. The difficulty lies in whether the effective recovery rate can be gradually expanded in the future. To this end, Huayou has created a recycling app to assist the salesmen in each district to do a good job of online recycling and take the "Internet plus+recycling" mode.
Although there are more than 40 enterprises in the Industrial Specifications and Conditions for the Comprehensive Utilization of Waste and Used Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the policy is only a guidance document and is not mandatory. On a second-hand trading platform, search for "recycling of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles"
Although there are more than 40 enterprises in the Industrial Specifications and Conditions for the Comprehensive Utilization of Waste and Used Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the policy is only a guidance document and is not mandatory. In a second-hand trading platform, search for "recycling of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles", and you can find a large number of businesses. According to Tianyan's data, there are more than 68000 enterprises related to power battery recycling in China. Among them, more than 23000 enterprises related to power battery recycling were added last year, with a year-on-year growth of 182%; In the first nine months of this year, 31000 related enterprises were added, with a year-on-year growth of 35.8%.
Zhang Yongwei proposed that special regulations on the recycling of retired batteries should be formulated, the industry supporting management system should be continuously improved, and the closed-loop realization of assets should be guaranteed. For example, we should speed up the formulation of special regulations on battery recycling with strong enforcement, encourage the broad model of "vehicle electricity separation" at the policy level, promote the separation of battery ownership to battery asset companies, and study and formulate incentive policies and punishment methods for the battery recycling industry to regulate the industry through legal constraints.
In the long run, the core of the waste power battery disassembly industry is still technological competition. Even for formal enterprises, the difficulties in the disassembly process also exist. Zhang Yuping said that in the process of disassembly, enterprises still face difficulties in fine disassembly, rapid detection of echelon utilization, low resource recovery and recycling, as well as safety control.
Greenmea tries to seek breakthroughs in the direction of intelligence. Zhang Yuping introduced that Greenland has built the first domestic digital recycling plant in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The factory uses all links together, records all processing processes digitally, and transmits them to the central control screen at the first time to realize product traceability. At the same time, in recent years, a team has been organized to tackle "intelligent disassembly", hoping to dispose of waste batteries through a dedicated robot. "If this is done well, it is the proper state of China's leading power battery recycling industry".
With the increase of sales and ownership of new energy vehicles, waste power batteries have entered a rapid growth period of scrapping since 2018 and 2019. According to the prediction data of the national traceability management platform, in the next three to five years, the average annual retirement amount of power batteries will reach 20 GWh to 30 GWh, and the cumulative retirement amount in 2026 will reach 142 GWh. In the context of capacity expansion of decommissioning, experts called on relevant departments to actively take the lead to help the industry solve the recycling problem and guide the low-carbon development of the industry.
Will lithium batteries be replaced soon
The first half is electric, and the second half is intelligent, which is the current industry's image description of the new energy car race. However, Dong Yang believes that electrification will run through the whole stadium. "We invented the battery and made the electric vehicle. The market has reached its present scale, which is just the beginning. The symbol of the real maturity of the industry is not that a few people can use it, but that most people can use it." He said, "In view of the main driving role of lithium batteries in industrial electrification, we need to rethink and reposition them."
"From the perspective of new energy vehicles, lithium battery will be the main power source of automotive products for a long time. The internal combustion engine using petroleum energy has been the main power device of automotive products for more than 130 years. At present, the power of automotive products is changing from internal combustion engine power to electric power. Looking forward to the future, electric power will have longer vitality than internal combustion engine power. The key is whether there will be a better power source to replace the current lithium in the future Battery? If so, lithium batteries may become a passer-by among industrial products. If not, lithium battery is a big product and should become a strategic industry of the national economy. " During the investigation, Dong Yang repeatedly asked reporters about lithium batteries.
In 2019, the Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to the inventors of lithium battery - John B. Goodenough, M. Stantley Whittingham and Akira Yoshino. Among them, Yoshino is a researcher of Asahi Kasei, a giant in the Japanese diaphragm field.
After the announcement of the Nobel Prize in Chemistry, an article entitled "They created a rechargeable world" was published on the official website of the Nobel Prize. The article points out that as a powerful battery with light weight and rechargeability, lithium-ion batteries are used in mobile phones, laptops, electric vehicles and other fields, all over our lives. Lithium ion batteries can also store solar energy and wind energy, making a world free of fossil fuels possible.
Dong Yang analyzed that, first, as the power source of automobile products, lithium batteries have no obvious weaknesses. The problems of driving range, safety and power failure in winter have been solved or are being solved. The problem of resources is no more difficult than that of oil and precious metals before. Second, new technologies that may replace lithium batteries in the future, such as solid state batteries, sodium batteries, and fuel cells, are difficult to fully surpass and replace lithium batteries in terms of comprehensive performance, manufacturing costs, and use costs. Third, as a pillar industry of the national economy, automobile needs to establish a long-term stable ecology, which should include all aspects of the entire industrial chain and all aspects of the entire life cycle. It is foreseeable that lithium batteries may be the main power source in more than 80% of automotive products, and can last for at least 30 to 50 years. Therefore, lithium battery has great potential to become a strategic industry of national economy.
How to build lithium battery into a strategic industry of the national economy? Dong Yang suggested that, at the industrial level, first, we should continue to comprehensively improve various performances. It includes safety performance, winter performance and material systems for market segments, as well as fast charging and power changing technologies that can improve user experience. Second, improve the manufacturing level around all aspects of the whole industrial chain. Including further expanding the batch size, improving the yield and product consistency, and reducing costs. The whole industry should establish a lean production system, with special emphasis on the manufacturability and recyclability of power batteries. Third, focus on building the ecology needed for industrial development. It includes improving the standard system, building a testing and certification system serving the whole industry, respecting intellectual property rights and establishing a reasonable competition system in the industry.
At the government level, first, we should do a good job in top-level design, industrial layout and development planning. Lithium is "white oil", and the lithium battery industry is as important as the petrochemical industry. Large state-owned enterprises should be appropriately arranged to enter the upstream material industry and build a relatively stable supply system. The second is to support the development of lithium battery industry while paying attention to environmental protection and energy conservation. In terms of mine project approval and high energy consumption project approval, the status quo of rapid development of lithium battery industry and the contribution of new energy vehicles and energy storage industry to carbon reduction of the whole society should be considered. Third, the availability of lithium battery material resources should be included in international relations. Fourth, support the development of lithium battery material futures market and strive for international pricing power. Fifth, further improve the construction of lithium battery recycling system to ensure that most of the old lithium batteries can be recycled, reused and recycled. Sixth, we will strengthen supervision over the price of lithium battery materials.
In terms of new battery research, China has been or is going to the forefront of the world, and is likely to lead the world in industrial applications. However, as the largest lithium battery country, China has the conditions and needs to develop the lithium battery industry from a strategic perspective, both "eating in the bowl" and "watching in the pot".
